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NATO: Possibility to Supply Weapons to Armenia

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  • NATO: Possibility to Supply Weapons to Armenia

    NATO: Possibility to Supply Weapons to Armenia

    Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
    Comments - 30 November 2014, 14:38


    Politicians and experts in NATO member states are interested in how
    the Armenian society perceives the relations with NATO, the groups
    which foster or counteract to development of NATO-Armenia relations,
    the motivation and interests of different groups.

    To what extent is the Armenian military leadership committed to
    rapprochement with NATO? Are there differences in the opinions of
    generals and the officer corps? What arguments do supporters of
    rapprochement with NATO bring?

    What proposals should be expected from Armenia: creation of military
    units to participate in peacekeeping and other actions, training for
    military personnel, implementation of military training programs,
    development of new cooperation programs, receiving weapons from NATO
    member states, foreign political support to the country, support to
    the settlement of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, support to
    normalization with Turkey?

    NATO has a big interest in the Armenian policy on cooperation with the
    alliance. The experience of NATO-Armenia cooperation is studied by the
    defense ministries of leading member states, and experts are trying to
    develop a model of cooperation with CSTO member states.

    In this respect, Armenia holds a special position, which boosts
    interest in it. For the time being, there are no final conclusions on
    cooperation with Armenia but it is time to draw the necessary
    conclusions and develop cooperation.

    In order to supply weapons to Armenia the decisions of separate states
    are needed because NATO lacks mechanisms for such decisions.
    Therefore, Armenia must conduct a more active policy with different
    NATO member states on this and other matters. NATO and several states
    are interested in increasing the military capacity of the Armenian
    armed forces because they consider this a factor of balance of forces
    in the South Caucasus.

    According to experts, NATO member states have sufficient information
    on the threats of resumption of war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the
    British ambassadors to the South Caucasus have always worked in this
    direction, regularly collected information, checked previously
    received information, embassies of other countries are constantly
    sharing information.

    Similarly, information is shared by foreign ministries and defense
    ministries of NATO member states. Currently, it is assumed that risks
    are high but not enough to expect military actions. Nevertheless, all
    the leading countries of NATO and the European Union are worried about
    the probability of a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    One expert thinks that the United Kingdom has a significant role in
    constraining resumption of military actions. The United Kingdom is
    interested in stability and security in the South Caucasus relating to
    major investments, including in the nearest future.

    Currently, there is not a detailed scenario of possible military
    actions but it will definitely cause a big destruction, including of
    oil infrastructures, cause long-term change of the situation in the
    region and huge economic losses for the Western partners. On the other
    hand, acquisition of considerable amounts of weapon leads to a
    situation when restrictions are not useful.

    Turkey has commitments to Azerbaijan but Turkey and Azerbaijan do not
    have a clue as to how they will be implemented, and everyone hopes
    that the developments will not end up in a direct military
    intervention of Turkey.

    It should be noted that the agreements are very important to
    Azerbaijan in the light of problems with not only Armenia but also
    Iran particularly when a more large-scale military conflict is
    possible in the region.

    At the moment, despite significant acquisition of weapons, Azerbaijan
    is not ready for a war with Armenia and Iran all the more so. Turkish
    intervention in the war against Armenia will indicate an unexpected
    turn in the relations with NATO because it will be actually perceived
    as aggression as defined by the UN Charter.

    It is hard to assume that Armenia will go for aggression against
    Turkey, therefore any intervention by Turkey will be considered
    disproportionate. At the same time, there is no vision and plan of how
    NATO will react to such a situation when the position of the alliance
    will be depending on the policy of separate states, preferences for
    usefulness of one assessment or another.

    Big NATO member states understand very well the growing threat of war
    in the South Caucasus and may only use political means of pressure on
    the possible conflict sides, and are trying to direct Turkey's policy
    in the right direction realizing the role and situation of Turkey.

    NATO and its leading member states understand Russia's role in
    constraining the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Now NATO cannot
    guarantee security in the South Caucasus, as well as within its area
    of responsibility because there are no such mechanisms.

    Nevertheless, it is believed that NATO's reputation is an important
    factor in preventing war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Furthermore, the war
    between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not the only scenario of military
    actions, considering Iran's position and tensions between Iran and
    Azerbaijan that may be a more significant factor of war.

    It should be noted that only the United States has a more or less
    deciding role in the prevention of possible Turkish intervention, and
    together with Russia is a key factor in constraining war.

    Turkey will try to block the development of NATO-Armenia relations,
    and Turkey has already tried to shift Armenia-Azerbaijan relations
    onto the NATO arena to which some states disagreed. Nevertheless,
    Turkey had to listen to them but it is not ruled out that in the
    future it will try to take the real chance.

    For the time being, Turkey cannot act directly against development of
    NATO-Armenia cooperation but may benefit from other arguments. In this
    respect, the interests of Turkey and Russia are totally in line.

    The United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany, as well as
    Greece and Poland have a positive attitude to the development of
    NATO-Armenia relations and are considering it as an important factor
    of enhancing security in the South Caucasus.

    At the same time, there are doubts that currently these states are
    ready to answer the question on supply of weapons to Armenia because
    they think that supply of weapons to the South Caucasus increases
    military risks. Nevertheless, there is certain experience and it may
    develop further.


    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33280#sthash.nZLmrwJ6.dpuf




    From: A. Papazian
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