Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Likelihood of Turkish Intervention in War

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Likelihood of Turkish Intervention in War

    Likelihood of Turkish Intervention in War

    Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
    Comments - 29 November 2014, 13:25


    NATO regional policy has the best prospects of all other doctrines of
    the alliance because the main challenges are encountered in different
    regions, and NATO cannot continue to implement its policy of military
    operations without the assistance and support of new partners,
    especially in the regions neighboring with or relatively far from
    Europe.

    NATO has several problems relating to treaty and concepts as NATO is
    seen by the UN as a regional organization, and any advancement of the
    troops of the alliance in different regions beyond the area of mandate
    generates a high risk and counteraction of different states.

    The problem is not the understanding of priorities of the global
    security system but the shortage of resources and controversies among
    leading and other NATO members. The question is whether the alliance
    is capable of understanding the initiatives of the United States,
    France and other states on military operations rapidly and in a
    coordinated way.

    Greece, for example, does not think that NATO should carry out an
    operation towards Syria while Turkey insisted on more active
    involvement of NATO. In this case, in fact, all the NATO members think
    that a military intervention in Syria is meaningless and will have
    severe consequences.

    At the same time, while the United States, the United Kingdom and
    France are taking an active part in support of several oppositions
    groups, Germany and other states are quite reserved in their reaction
    to this intervention.

    The attitudes of NATO member states regarding the operations in Libya
    and Mali were quite controversial and did not result in the
    participation of those states which took a more active part in lasting
    operations in NATO. NATO is cautious with the developments in the Near
    East where the United States has limited its activity and will
    possibly limit its presence as well.

    NATO does not intend to develop new programs for new partners but
    everyone understands that it is time to expand participation of new
    partners in NATO operations. The problem of expenditures occurs
    because part of new partners does not have money for broader
    participation in operations despite the assistance of NATO member
    states.

    Therefore, the new partners need to seek for direct partnership with
    member states to receive their assistance for operations. Experts
    agree that it would have been more interesting to develop programs for
    new members but at this stage the existing programs are universal and
    suppose diverse participation, mostly voluntary for new partners.

    The problems that had occurred over 14 years ago between Turkey and
    the United States have not been resolved because Turkey puts forth
    ambitious demands that often irritates most members of the alliance.
    Turkey's policy which is at the same time directed at the expansion of
    its regional influence, implementation of the "European project", i.e.
    membership to the European Union, as well as provision of its national
    security, occasionally leads to controversies with other NATO member
    states, first of all the leading members of the alliance.

    The United States is trying to maintain equal relations with Turkey,
    and the reason is not only the interest of the Americans in the
    services of Turkey in the Near East and other directions but also the
    fears that Turkey will implement a policy that will not be in line
    with the interests of the United States and NATO in these regions.

    Experts agree that currently Turkey has assumed a tactics that rules
    out distance and too problematic issues in its relations with the
    United States and NATO, seeking for their support. At the same time,
    Turkey has not given up on its policy of intensifying its influence in
    the regions, including the Near East.

    On the whole, the prospects of the U.S.-Turkish relations have not
    been clarified and remain uncertain. The United States is considering
    Turkey in the close perspective, trying to develop resolutions on
    problems for several months and two or three years.

    Currently, it is difficult to predict the development of the Turkish
    policy on the Western community, as well as in respect to the regions.
    Nevertheless, Turkey intends to stay loyal to NATO and the United
    States, realizing the possibility of a negative effect of too many
    problems in the domestic and economic spheres. Turkey is facing
    certain economic problems and is reluctant to spoil its relations with
    rich and strong partners.

    One can suggest views of experts working for NATO and the European
    Union on the possibility of the role and behavior of Turkey relating
    to a possible military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as
    well as the attitude of Turkey to development of NATO-Armenia
    cooperation.

    As a sovereign state, Turkey gives significant military and technical
    assistance to Azerbaijan under the agreement on mutual assistance
    according to which Turkey is entitled to military intervention in a
    military conflict to help Azerbaijan. At the same time, it may happen
    within the framework of international law if Turkey or its ally
    undergoes aggression.

    At this point, a major problem occurs - to what extent will it be
    possible to consider Armenia an aggressor against Turkey or
    Azerbaijan? In answer to the question to what extent NATO and the
    United Nations will be objective in their assessment of such a
    situation, experts said that NATO member states have all this
    necessary information.

    In fact, the agreement between Turkey and Azerbaijan is not legitimate
    in terms of the NATO Charter but NATO is reluctant to bring up this
    matter. The existence of such an agreement may cause a complicated
    situation for NATO actions in case of occurrence of a military
    conflict.

    As a UN member, Turkey cannot launch military actions unless
    aggression or UN sanctions are in place. Currently, Turkey is not
    interested in a war, especially in the South Caucasus that may cause a
    military conflict under an unclear vision.

    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33277#sthash.YTRGnHWP.dpuf

Working...
X