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Aghasi Yenokyan: Russia-Abkhazia Treaty Is In Eurasian Union Spirit

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  • Aghasi Yenokyan: Russia-Abkhazia Treaty Is In Eurasian Union Spirit

    AGHASI YENOKYAN: RUSSIA-ABKHAZIA TREATY IS IN EURASIAN UNION SPIRIT

    ArmInfo's interview with Aghasi Yenokyan, Head of the Armenian Center
    for Political and International Relations

    by David Stepanyan

    Tuesday, December 2, 12:57

    Despite the latest Russian-Abkhaz agreement on strategic
    partnership and Russian President Vladimir Putin's hints that it
    is necessary to re-launch the Abkhaz railway section to restore
    the railway communication with Armenia, many experts believe that
    the Russian-Abkhazian treaty has shot down that project. What is
    your opinion?

    The given document will probably increase tension in the
    Russian-Georgian relations. This scenario may be prevented only in
    case if pro-Russian forces continue to gain power in Georgia. There are
    such prospects given the latest changes in the Georgian Government. On
    the other hand, along with technical problems there is another, a
    very important question connected with reactivation of the Abkhazian
    section of the railway i.e. where the will be the Georgian border
    and the customs point. The railway will not be reactivated, unless
    this question gets an answer. Given that the new treaty between
    Abkhazia and Russia implies a border between Abkhazia and Georgia,
    the incumbent authorities in Georgia will never agree to it.

    Well, what were the reasons of such statement by the Russian president?

    Russia's policy is a PR by 80% today. For instance, the treaty with
    Abkhazia was a serious step, in this view. In fact, that treaty will
    bring nothing essential either to Abhkazia or to Russia. Neither it
    will be useful for a third party. It was a treaty in the Eurasian Union
    spirit. At present, parallel to the events in Ukraine, Moscow is trying
    to develop certain events in other regions too. Look at the changes in
    the government of Georgia and the recent escalation of situation at
    the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. In fact, we see the most important
    in the Kremlin's policy - everything has been developing in Ukraine
    not the way Vladimir Putin wanted. And this should be compensated by
    acquisitions in other places. On the other hand, these acquisitions,
    as Putin thinks, are called to compensate the failure in Ukraine.

    Do you mean that resignation of Irakli Alasania and his ministers
    was a result of the Kremlin's lobby?

    Not everything is clear in what has recently happened in Georgia. One
    thing is clear that rather prominent men in Georgia have left the
    government, and not so much prominent ones have remained. Nobody
    knows why the men having a strict pro-Western orientation have left
    the government. So, it is quite natural that the new government has
    got all the chances for turning the vector of the Georgian foreign
    policy towards Russia. The main property of the "secretary general"
    of the Georgian authorities is in Russia with all the consequences
    stemming from that for him and Georgia.

    You talked about Ivanishvili's loyalty to, let's say, Russian value
    system. Isn't it a factor for future de-blockading of Georgia's border
    with Abkhazia?

    I don't think so. With Bidzina Ivanishvili being adherent to Russian
    values, Armenia can hardly hope for Georgia reopening its border with
    Abkhazia as this is against Russia's interests. In Moscow they are
    not interested in Armenia's economic development. They need blockaded
    Armenia for if Armenia had a link with Russia, it would ignore the
    blockade and there would be no more Armenian-Turkish problem. Russia
    needs an Armenia constantly feeling a threat from Turkey.

    Could you comment on the current stage of the Ukraine crisis? I
    don't mean the military actions. What are your forecasts of further
    developments?

    Russia has begun to panic after Petro Poroshenko's decision to stop
    financing Donbass. This has put the Russians into a kind of zugzwang.

    On the other hand, growing corruption in Kyiv may well lead to further
    Russian expansion and even new elections.

    Despite the failure of the latest round of negotiations of Iran and
    six world powers on the Iranian nuclear problem, Tehran's entry to the
    world market is, sure, able to provoke a reduction of the Russian gas
    and oil prices. What holds the West from using "the Iranian playcard"?

    Is it Russia's stand?

    In the current situation that has arisen due to both Russia's stand
    and the latest steps of the Islamic State, Iran has turned into a
    natural ally of the West. However, the capacities of that natural ally
    still remain as a potential. The problem is the West's aspiration to
    save its face in the policy regarding Iran. Tehran also has a similar
    problem. This explains the difficult course of the negotiations on
    the nuclear problem. Nevertheless, given that the talks have not been
    stopped and have even led to some elements of lifting the blockade
    from Iran, the prospects are quite encouraging.

    Armenia's import-oriented economy will face a problem with
    compatibility of iots customs regime with the EEU criteria already
    in 2016. How will they settle that problem, if they do it at all?

    The key problem Armenia will face in the Eurasian Economic Union is
    that this is a way to nowhere. The last restrictions imposed by Russia
    on some foodstuffs from Belarus have proved that this structure is
    not serving its purposes. So, it is early to say how things will be in
    Armenia in 2016, simply, because it is not yet clear how things will
    be in Russia. In this light, I have certain doubts about the future of
    the Eurasian Economic Union. Putin is losing authority in Russia. He
    has no more bread and circuses to offer to his people. Nationalism
    is not effective any more, so, he may need a new conflict in the
    post-Soviet area so as to boost the morale of the Russians. This may
    have quite unpredictable consequences but Putin no longer cares. What
    he needs today is an event rather than a solution to it.

    A rhetorical question arises as to whether Armenia is controlled by
    internal or external forces?

    Armenia is controlled by both internal and external forces. Th degree
    of self-rule of any country depends first of all on the legitimacy of
    the country's authorities and on its place in foreign interests and
    capability to resist the foreign challenges. Today the legitimacy of
    the Armenian authorities leaves much to be desired. The country is
    involved in the zone of vital interests for Russia.

    http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=B0FAFA90-7A09-11E4-974D0EB7C0D21663

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