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"Let the enemy know": Karabakh conflict settlement is delayed

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  • "Let the enemy know": Karabakh conflict settlement is delayed

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    September 30, 2005, Friday

    "LET THE ENEMY KNOW"

    SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kurier, No 36, September 28 - October 4,
    2005, p. 3

    by Aleksei Matveev

    KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT IS DELAYED

    Attention of the international community is once again centered on
    Nagorno-Karabakh, one of the self-declared states in the post-Soviet
    zone denied international recognition. President of Armenia and
    Azerbaijan, Robert Kocharjan and Ilham Aliyev, met in Kazan
    (Tatarstan, Russia) in late April and discussed conflict settlement
    with nothing to show for it. Even official press releases indicate
    that the failure did not become a breakthrough. As a matter of fact,
    many analysts predicted it. The dialogue has been under way for a
    long time now without, however, a single accomplishment in over a
    decade. Practically all meetings of the leaders of Armenia,
    Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh result in vague declarations on how
    negotiations continue and how progress is made towards peace and
    stability when in fact absolutely no progress worth mentioning is
    ever made.

    In the meantime, Nagorno-Karabakh exists as a de facto republic. The
    Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh celebrated its 14th anniversary of
    independence on September 2. Kocharjan attended the festivities.
    Kocharjan mentioned in his speech that the negotiations had "positive
    tendencies" and said that he had never implied that "Armenia might
    change its stand on the matter of Nagorno-Karabakh settlement." In
    fact, the Armenian president was refuting himself. What positive
    trends are possible when Armenia would not even hear of a compromise?
    Ditto Azerbaijan, for that matter.

    Aliyev of Azerbaijan is criticizing Nagorno-Karabakh openly. "Let the
    enemy know that the Azerbaijani national army can liberate our lands
    at any moment," he was quoted as saying not long ago (at the opening
    of a monument to former president Heydar Aliyev in Lenkoran on
    September 8). Aliyev had arguments to substantiate his threats. "Arms
    spending amounted to $175 million in 2004, and to $300 million in
    2005. They will amount to $600 million next year," he said. Stripped
    of diplomatic finesse, it means that Azerbaijan will stop at nothing
    to accomplish its goals.

    The president of Azerbaijan may be understood. A six-day joint
    exercise of the Russian Army Group in the Caucasus and Armenian Armed
    Forces began in Armenia the day before, on September 7. Aliyev could
    not let it go without comments. There are no doubts that the
    maneuvers were planned, but official Baku took them for
    muscle-flexing on the part of Yerevan backed by a foreign power.
    Indeed, the legend of the exercise was really something. An enemy
    makes a forced march 15-20 kilometers into Armenia across the border
    with Turkey. Armenian and Russian servicemen check the enemy advance
    and use artillery and aviation to force the enemy to fall back. Sure,
    no implications with regard to Azerbaijan were intended, but in the
    light of the situation with Nagorno-Karabakh the ambivalence is
    certainly undeniable. Aliyev could not help condemning the exercise.
    He did so obliquely - speaking about combat readiness and increased
    arms spending as a certain counterweight to Armenia's military
    preparations. It is a different matter altogether that Baku was
    fairly rude and openly resorted to threats...

    Azerbaijani leaders are critical of Russia too. Conference Parallel
    CIS: Abkhazia, Trans-Dniester, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh As
    Realities Of The Post-Soviet Zone in Moscow on September 14-15 (here
    CIS stood for the Commonwealth of Ignored States), was taken in
    Azerbaijan as a provocation. Addressing the Nagorno-Karabakh
    Provisional Commission of the Parliamentary Assembly in Paris the
    other day, Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov announced
    that his country had waged a war on two foreign powers at once -
    Russia and Armenia. Azimov also said that Russia had transferred a
    great deal of weapons to Armenia. Shavarsh Kocharjan of the Armenian
    delegation in return cited chapter and verse on what weapons and
    ordnance Armenia had received from Russia before 1993. He said that
    all arms deals were then suspended in honor of the Tashkent Accord
    (May 1992). Kocharjan added that even according to official reports
    Azerbaijan had received twice as many tanks from Russia, 2.5 times
    more armored personnel carriers, 1.5 times more artillery pieces, and
    twice as many helicopters. Armenia did not receive a single aircraft
    from Russia while Azerbaijan received 53. "Armenia has more reasons
    to begrudge Russian military assistance to Azerbaijan," Kocharjan
    said. "And yet, Armenia recognizes the role Russia has been playing
    in connection with the truce made in 1994, because there would have
    been no truce without Russia."

    In any case, Russia finds itself between the frying pan and the fire
    in the Azerbaijani-Armenian dispute. Generally speaking, settlement
    of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is delayed...
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