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Taleh Ziyadov: What is next in the Karabakh Peace Process?

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  • Taleh Ziyadov: What is next in the Karabakh Peace Process?

    Regnum, Russia -
    March 12 2006


    Taleh Ziyadov: What is next in the Karabakh Peace Process?


    In Paris last month, another round of negotiations between Armenia
    and Azerbaijan attempting to resolve the eighteen years old Karabakh
    conflict ended with no results. The OSCE Minsk group mediators from
    France, Russia and the United States watched quietly as Armenia's
    President Robert Kocharyan and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev
    tried and failed to agree on a framework document, which was supposed
    to be the foundation for future talks.

    The so-called Prague peace progress, which has been going on for more
    than two years, has reached its climax in Paris. The talks revealed
    that in the view of today's political realities and the situation on
    the ground in the South Caucasus, Armenia and Azerbaijan are not
    ready to sign any agreements in 2006. It suddenly became clear when
    the two presidents failed to reconcile the issues of security,
    self-determination and territorial integrity.

    Once again the negotiations collapsed. But this time they also buried
    along all hopes for a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict in
    the near future. This has left many western officials, regional
    experts and ordinary citizens alike anxiously guessing about what is
    next in the Karabakh peace process.

    As cynical as it may seem, the Karabakh peace process does not have a
    bright future. Out of many possible development scenarios, there are
    three main courses of action: a status quo, a new war or a solution
    within the framework of territorial integrity. Although the last
    option holds the key to a long-term peace in the region, in the
    absence of international pressure the first two choices are bound to
    overweight the third one.

    A status quo option is the most likely alternative between now and
    2008 - a year when both countries will have their next presidential
    elections. This does not mean, however, that political, economic and
    military processes will go smoothly in Armenia and Azerbaijan.

    Armenia has already threatened that in case the negotiations fail,
    Yerevan may recognize a self-declared and unrecognized
    Nagorno-Karabakh republic. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, repeated
    that if the peace process is unsuccessful, Baku will use all possible
    means, including the military option, to restore the territorial
    integrity of the country.

    Moreover, during this temporary status quo period, Armenia will be
    further isolated from regional energy and transportation projects and
    Azerbaijan will triple or quadruple its military budget thanks to
    money from the country's energy exports.

    The growing economic and military strength will make Azerbaijan even
    more reluctant to consent to solutions that are on the table today.
    The increasing self-confidence and loud demands of anxious refugees
    and internally displaced will compel the future Azerbaijani
    governments to take increasingly drastic actions to settle the
    conflict by force. Then it will be not a question of `whether or
    not', but rather `when' a new war is likely to begin.

    Yet, neither a prolonged status quo nor a new war will settle the
    Karabakh conflict permanently. Instead, a peace and prosperity for
    Armenians and Azerbaijanis will come out of the optimal proposal - a
    solution that will guarantee the security and self-governance rights
    of Armenian and Azerbaijani ethnic communities of Karabakh without
    breaking up the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan.

    The security of Armenians in Karabakh has been the major concern of
    Yerevan. Armenia wants to make sure that Armenians in the region will
    be safe and secure after the pullout of all Armenian troops from
    Azerbaijan. This genuine concern, however, becomes hypocritical and
    damaging when President Kocharyan continues to reject solutions that
    incorporate options that guarantee the security of Karabakh Armenians
    within the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

    If President Kocharyan is sincere in his statements, he should work
    constructively to find an optimum, not maximum, solution. President
    Aliyev has already stated that he is open to all proposals that do
    not jeopardize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.

    In fact, the resolution model for the Aland Islands - predominantly
    Swedish province of Finland - that was recently circulated in the
    Armenian and Azerbaijani media, could constitute a good framework for
    addressing concerns of both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia could
    obtain exclusive rights for security of Karabakh Armenians and
    resolve the issue of the region's final status without delay, while
    Azerbaijan will preserve its territorial integrity and return its
    extensive IDP population back to their homes.

    This year might be the last time when Armenians and Azerbaijanis will
    have a real chance to settle their disputes peacefully. A lack of
    international attention and pressure, a rapidly vanishing mutual
    trust between two nations, and further delays in the peace process
    will inevitable strengthen the hands of those who advocate a military
    solution for the conflict. This could lead to unanticipated actions
    that would bring more misfortune to both nations and the whole South
    Caucasus region.

    Taleh Ziyadov holds a Master's degree from the School of Foreign
    Service at Georgetown University. He specializes in energy, security
    and geopolitical issues in the Caspian region and Eurasia.
    From: Baghdasarian
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