Tweet
Regnum, Russia
April 8 2006
Will Azerbaijan agree to join the anti-Iranian coalition? Azeri press
digest
Politics
`If the Karabakh peace talks give no results, we'll have to choose
another way to liberate our lands and to restore our territorial
integrity,' Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov says Mar 30. He
says that the last statements by Armenian diplomats were just a show
for their own public: `Such statements are for their home politics
and mostly reflect the position of military men, who have a big
authority in their country. So, these words must not be taken
seriously.'
Mamedyarov says that the talks with the Armenian community of Nagorno
Karabakh are possible if Armenia comes out of the negotiating
process, and if the Karabakh Armenians admit that they are Azeri
citizens and recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and laws.
`But I am afraid Armenia itself doesn't want Azerbaijan to directly
negotiate with the Karabakh Armenians,' says Mamedyarov. (525 Daily)
Apr 1 Azeri Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov finished his official
visit to the US and Canada, reports AzerTag. In Ottawa Azimov spoke
about Azerbaijan's `concern,' particularly, that some Canadian
companies are prospecting gold fields in the Kalbacar district,
`occupied by the Armenians'. But the Canadian officials said they
have nothing to do with the above companies and do not interfere in
their activities. In Washington the agenda was the same: ensuring
Azerbaijan's national and regional security, developing relations in
the framework of NATO, enhancing the OSCE's role, resolving the
regional conflicts, relations between the Caspian countries, the
military-political situation in the Caspian region.
Azimov says: `The complex of risks and threats in the Caspian region
is complicated enough. Its peculiar elements are war, terrorism, and
environment. Here, the USA will closely cooperate with Azerbaijan. We
have achieved some agreements. Some groups of experts will arrive in
Baku to study ways to involve Azerbaijan in energy and sea safety
initiatives, and also the initiative by G8, against proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction.'
Asked if they spoke about Iran, Azimov says: `We told them that a
130-km section of the Azeri-Iranian border is under occupation.' `The
ensuing threats should be considered by all means. We also discussed
the situation in the sector of the Caspian Sea adjacent to Iran.
Azerbaijan is worried about certain steps Iran is undertaking in this
area.'
`The US supports the quick settlement of the Karabakh conflict and is
ready to make active efforts in this direction. Azerbaijan supports
peaceful co-existence of the Armenian and Azerbaijan communities in
Nagorno Karabakh and their provision with relevant guarantees.
America should understand and Armenia should remember that Azerbaijan
will not only object to the partition of its lands, will but also
take action to prevent it. It should not be perceived as toughening
of our position. It is a position of principle Azerbaijan has had
from the very beginning, from the first day of the conflict. We shall
stick to this position. We are ready to show appropriate flexibility
in settling the conflict. These words are also for my compatriots -
the Armenian community living in Nagorno Karabakh should be provided
with some framework of self-government. The Armenians claim that
political forces of Azerbaijan want to expel the Armenians of Nagorno
Karabakh from this region. It is not true. We have never objected to
their residence in Nagorno Karabakh as citizens of Azerbaijan. On the
contrary, we consider that these people should be given appropriate
social-political freedoms. This should not be regarded as weakness on
our part. As a strong, modern, democratic state, Azerbaijan is ready
to provide normal life to each citizen of any ethnic origin.'
`Armenia should renounce its the extreme position that Nagorno
Karabakh has never been and will never be a part of Azerbaijan. In
its turn, the Azeri government should provide the Armenian population
of Nagorno Karabakh with model of self-government. Based on the
European standards, this model should recognize our territorial
integrity and inviolability of borders. One should not forget that
Azeris also lived in Nagorno Karabakh side by side with Armenians.
The Azeri community should come back to Nagorno Karabakh without fail
to use, together with the Armenians, the same model of
self-government in line with the Azeri legislation. This is our
constructive position. We are ready to pass from such a hard line as
non-recognition of the rights of the Armenians to such a moderate
position as maintenance of their rights. Thus, Armenia and Azerbaijan
can come to a common denominator. This question has been brought to
the attention of the American side,' says Azimov. (AzerTag)
In 2005, international organizations allocated $30 mln as
humanitarian aid to displaced persons in Azerbaijan and will allocate
as much this year, says Azeri Deputy Premier, Chairman of the State
Refugee Committee Ali Gasanov. He says that the rest is provided by
Azerbaijan itself. `If 10 years ago international organizations
provided displaced persons with $75-80 mln annually, today the Azeri
authorities spend on them $100 mln a year,' says Gasanov. There are
also refugees from third countries - Chechens, Afghanis, Iraqis and
Palestinians - a total of 13,000-14,000. Gasanov says that the Azeri
authorities are not going to give them official refugee status as
they have enough of own refugees in the country. Still some 50 people
have got the status. Gasanov disagrees with the US State Department's
criticism that Azerbaijan is violating the rights of Chechen
refugees. `The Chechens crossed the border illegally, there were
problems with their identification and we sent relevant inquiries to
Russia,' says Gasanov. (New Time)
Zerkalo says: `It is noteworthy that increasingly more attention has
been recently given to the social-humanitarian aspects of the
Armenian-Azeri conflict. Unfortunately, we may `come a howler' in
this issue. We will reap the fruits of the mistakes we have made for
the sake of momentary political gains. The point is that Armenian
NGOs are going to ask the European Human Rights Court to oblige
Azerbaijan to reimburse material and moral damage to Armenian
refugees. So, we can sum up certain results here: first, if we give a
thought to Azimov's words, it turns out that the US still hopes that
Azerbaijan will accept the co-chairs' (OSCE Minsk Group - REGNUM)
`Prague Process' scenario. Or he wouldn't say right after coming back
from the US that `America should understand and Armenia should
remember...' Second, after the failure of the `Prague Process,' the
Armenians are eager to show as if it is Azerbaijan who wants a new
war. No coincidence that the Armenian media report Yuri Merzlyakov
(OSCE MG Russian co-chair - REGNUM) to say that it is Azerbaijan who
is responsible for the growing tensions and that such actions will
lead to nothing good. But if we give a good thought to this, it turns
out that it is exactly Armenia who wants a new war at the present
stage.'
The daily says: `Despite its growing military expenses, Azerbaijan
has not yet got overwhelming military prevalence over Armenia. But
otherwise it will not be able to attain drastic results in the battle
field. In the coming few years Azerbaijan may bring its military
spending up to the level of 3-4 Armenian state budgets.'
First: Armenia's economy will not be able to keep pace. Second: by
debarring Armenia from regional projects, Azerbaijan is depriving it
of any economic prospects. The last such serious project may be the
building of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railroad. Armenia is
not only pronouncing but is also acting against this project. US
Senators Rick Santorum and Robert Menendez have already drafted a
bill urging the Senate to ban any support of this project linking
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and bypassing Armenia, reports the
Armenian Assembly of America. And third: in a few years, when
Azerbaijan gets an overwhelming military prevalence over Armenia,
first of all, in quality, it will be able to speak `from a position
of strength.'
Such tactics will be good for Azerbaijan if it `preserves the
situation' for a while and waits for better times, while Armenia
can't wait for `better times.' That's why its officials openly say
they are not going to wait for Azerbaijan to get stronger and may
deal `a preventive blow.'
And now let's return to the social-humanitarian problems we may have
if the conflict is resolved. Unfortunately, Armenia's threats to
appeal to the European Human Rights Court for refugee compensation
are not as absurd as they may seem. 250,000 Azeris have left Armenia
since the beginning of the conflict, i.e. since 1988, against 350,000
Armenians leaving Azerbaijan. That is, Armenia has gained a seeming
prevalence over us due to its `creeping deportation' of Azeris during
the Soviet times. But we have made things even worse by fully
integrating the refugees from Armenia into our society. That is,
today almost all the refugees from Armenia have Azeri citizenship and
can no longer be regarded as refugees by the international law. By
speculating on the social-political problems of the refugees from
Armenia, the ruling party and some opposition forces have got them
fully integrated into the Azeri society and have deprived Azerbaijan
of this serious tramp. They should have kept them `refugee' - with
certain civil and political restrictions - by stipulating that their
status will be finalized after the settlement of the Armenian-Azeri
conflict. While now, with just a few thousands of official refugees
we may see our next generations working hard to `feed' some 200,000
Armenians. To avoid this, we must, first, try to change the situation
with the refugees from Armenia, that is, to change their legal status
so that international organizations regard them as `refugees.' This
is a hard thing to do, at least, because we'll have to deprive them
of some of their civil and political rights. Not being a lawyer, I
can't say if this is legally possible at all. Second, we must
urgently find who to oblige to reimburse the `displacement' and
`occupation' damage. This will be Armenia provided that Azerbaijan
has taken the Armenian-Azeri problem back to the UN Security Council
and gets it to recognize Armenia as an aggressor. This will not only
equalize our chances but will even give us advantage... (Zerkalo)
Speaking of peace opportunities in Nagorno Karabakh at the RFE/RL
Washington Office, the director of the Caucasian project of the
International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer says that the Karabakh
conflict is not frozen: dozens of soldiers and civilians are dying on
the contact line because of cease fire violations. This line is
closer to Azeri villages, that's why Azerbaijan is sustaining more
casualties. Frazer says that even though she does not believe in a
new war in the coming years, she is seriously concerned over the
growing military activity on both sides, which makes the situation
worse and allows such strong regional players as Russia, the US,
Iran, Turkey to deeper interfere in the conflict.
Frazer says that there is a big possibility that a compromise peace
agreement will be signed by the leaders, but there is a small
possibility that this agreement will be supported by the peoples.
Hence, in order to foster mutual confidence, the sides should not
only actively negotiate but also encourage contacts between Armenians
and Azeris. Freizer says that it will be hard to implement any signed
agreement. For example, the level of destruction in the `occupied'
Azeri territories is much higher than in the Balkans. These
territories are in such a deplorable state that the return of
displaced persons there will take several years, at least, says
Freizer.
Iran
The preliminary agreement on Azerbaijan's accession into the
anti-Iranian coalition was reached in Washington in late Mar during
Azeri Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov's meetings with US
diplomats, reports Aina Mar 31.
Zerkalo says: `The decision to take part in the anti-Iranian
coalition is very hard for Azerbaijan. Particularly, the Americans
may use the Iran-based ethnic Azeris as a force center. They may
become a kind of `fifth pillar' for the US and, naturally, Iran is
already taking action to intercept any messages to its ethnic
minorities. And this is only preliminary reaction. If Azerbaijan
takes more specific action to support the US, Iran will certainly
response in much tougher measures.'
It is more than probable that in this case Iran, together with
Russia, will do its utmost to fuel the tensions on the Armenian-Azeri
contact line. This will benefit both Tehran and Moscow as this will
allow them to manipulate both Azerbaijan and Armenia. This will make
Yerevan and Baku think ten times before providing even tiniest help
to the US. Besides, the resumption of even local military actions on
the Armenian-Azeri conflict zone will strongly reduce the possibility
of anti-Iranian strikes from the territory of Azerbaijan - one can't
wage a war from the territory of a country who is at war itself. To
this end, Iran and Russia may start inciting both sides to war. To
Azerbaijan they may promise: `Start and we will help you to get back
some of your districts.' With Armenia things are much easier: Iran
and Russia are its strategic, economic and political partners in the
region and may well claim repayment of `debts'...
`The other `response' Azerbaijan may get from Iran may be the Islamic
factor. Until recently Azerbaijan has paid no special attention to
the Islamic factor and Iran's relevant activities. They in Baku
believed there were no strong pro-Iranian Islamists in Azerbaijan.
But the `cartoon scandal' and the reaction to it in Azerbaijan have
proved otherwise. We do have Islamists, and Iran may well use them if
Azerbaijan supports the US initiatives.
Given the extreme religiousity of the Baku villages and Southern
Azerbaijan, `a good push' may set a critical mass of people into
action that will be hard to stop. Even more, Iran may raise the whole
so-called `Arab Street' against us, and it is a big question if our
police will be able to cope with a cohort of extremists from the
Middle East.'
Echo reports the US to be considering a scenario of military
assistance of Azerbaijan. Experts say that Azerbaijan must be ready
for Iran's counter-attack. `Experts say that today the threat of a
military strike on Iran is as real as never before. In its article
`Scenarios of American Strike' Al Ahram daily from Egypt says that in
case of war Iran will counter-act by striking on the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Its missiles can well hit the US
and European oil facilities in the Caspian Sea,' says Echo.
Independent military expert Uzeir Jafarov says: `The US certainly has
a specific plan on Iran, and this plan has several possible
scenarios. The Americans always have several scenarios - both
optimistic and pessimistic. No coincidence they are exercising the
possibility of aggression against Azerbaijan by an imaginary
neighbor. After the USSR collapse we have liquidated half of our
chemical troops and should there be a chemical attack on Azerbaijan,
both our army and people will have serious problems. That's probably
why the Americans are considering this scenario at exercises and are
training our specialists at seminars how to be most efficient during
such force majeure situations.'
`I feel there will be really hot in our region in April. We should be
ready for aggravating situation in all directions. America has
specific plans, Iran has reasons of its own. So, I am sure that if
American strikes a crushing blow on Iran, we will hardly avoid its
repercussion. Even if Azerbaijan gives no official consent to the use
of its territory by the US troops, Iran may still hit at the objects
of the US economic interest in Azerbaijan: the oil facilities in the
Caspian Sea, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. This all may be an act of
despair by the Iranian regime,' says Jafarov.
April 8 2006
Will Azerbaijan agree to join the anti-Iranian coalition? Azeri press
digest
Politics
`If the Karabakh peace talks give no results, we'll have to choose
another way to liberate our lands and to restore our territorial
integrity,' Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov says Mar 30. He
says that the last statements by Armenian diplomats were just a show
for their own public: `Such statements are for their home politics
and mostly reflect the position of military men, who have a big
authority in their country. So, these words must not be taken
seriously.'
Mamedyarov says that the talks with the Armenian community of Nagorno
Karabakh are possible if Armenia comes out of the negotiating
process, and if the Karabakh Armenians admit that they are Azeri
citizens and recognize Azerbaijan's territorial integrity and laws.
`But I am afraid Armenia itself doesn't want Azerbaijan to directly
negotiate with the Karabakh Armenians,' says Mamedyarov. (525 Daily)
Apr 1 Azeri Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov finished his official
visit to the US and Canada, reports AzerTag. In Ottawa Azimov spoke
about Azerbaijan's `concern,' particularly, that some Canadian
companies are prospecting gold fields in the Kalbacar district,
`occupied by the Armenians'. But the Canadian officials said they
have nothing to do with the above companies and do not interfere in
their activities. In Washington the agenda was the same: ensuring
Azerbaijan's national and regional security, developing relations in
the framework of NATO, enhancing the OSCE's role, resolving the
regional conflicts, relations between the Caspian countries, the
military-political situation in the Caspian region.
Azimov says: `The complex of risks and threats in the Caspian region
is complicated enough. Its peculiar elements are war, terrorism, and
environment. Here, the USA will closely cooperate with Azerbaijan. We
have achieved some agreements. Some groups of experts will arrive in
Baku to study ways to involve Azerbaijan in energy and sea safety
initiatives, and also the initiative by G8, against proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction.'
Asked if they spoke about Iran, Azimov says: `We told them that a
130-km section of the Azeri-Iranian border is under occupation.' `The
ensuing threats should be considered by all means. We also discussed
the situation in the sector of the Caspian Sea adjacent to Iran.
Azerbaijan is worried about certain steps Iran is undertaking in this
area.'
`The US supports the quick settlement of the Karabakh conflict and is
ready to make active efforts in this direction. Azerbaijan supports
peaceful co-existence of the Armenian and Azerbaijan communities in
Nagorno Karabakh and their provision with relevant guarantees.
America should understand and Armenia should remember that Azerbaijan
will not only object to the partition of its lands, will but also
take action to prevent it. It should not be perceived as toughening
of our position. It is a position of principle Azerbaijan has had
from the very beginning, from the first day of the conflict. We shall
stick to this position. We are ready to show appropriate flexibility
in settling the conflict. These words are also for my compatriots -
the Armenian community living in Nagorno Karabakh should be provided
with some framework of self-government. The Armenians claim that
political forces of Azerbaijan want to expel the Armenians of Nagorno
Karabakh from this region. It is not true. We have never objected to
their residence in Nagorno Karabakh as citizens of Azerbaijan. On the
contrary, we consider that these people should be given appropriate
social-political freedoms. This should not be regarded as weakness on
our part. As a strong, modern, democratic state, Azerbaijan is ready
to provide normal life to each citizen of any ethnic origin.'
`Armenia should renounce its the extreme position that Nagorno
Karabakh has never been and will never be a part of Azerbaijan. In
its turn, the Azeri government should provide the Armenian population
of Nagorno Karabakh with model of self-government. Based on the
European standards, this model should recognize our territorial
integrity and inviolability of borders. One should not forget that
Azeris also lived in Nagorno Karabakh side by side with Armenians.
The Azeri community should come back to Nagorno Karabakh without fail
to use, together with the Armenians, the same model of
self-government in line with the Azeri legislation. This is our
constructive position. We are ready to pass from such a hard line as
non-recognition of the rights of the Armenians to such a moderate
position as maintenance of their rights. Thus, Armenia and Azerbaijan
can come to a common denominator. This question has been brought to
the attention of the American side,' says Azimov. (AzerTag)
In 2005, international organizations allocated $30 mln as
humanitarian aid to displaced persons in Azerbaijan and will allocate
as much this year, says Azeri Deputy Premier, Chairman of the State
Refugee Committee Ali Gasanov. He says that the rest is provided by
Azerbaijan itself. `If 10 years ago international organizations
provided displaced persons with $75-80 mln annually, today the Azeri
authorities spend on them $100 mln a year,' says Gasanov. There are
also refugees from third countries - Chechens, Afghanis, Iraqis and
Palestinians - a total of 13,000-14,000. Gasanov says that the Azeri
authorities are not going to give them official refugee status as
they have enough of own refugees in the country. Still some 50 people
have got the status. Gasanov disagrees with the US State Department's
criticism that Azerbaijan is violating the rights of Chechen
refugees. `The Chechens crossed the border illegally, there were
problems with their identification and we sent relevant inquiries to
Russia,' says Gasanov. (New Time)
Zerkalo says: `It is noteworthy that increasingly more attention has
been recently given to the social-humanitarian aspects of the
Armenian-Azeri conflict. Unfortunately, we may `come a howler' in
this issue. We will reap the fruits of the mistakes we have made for
the sake of momentary political gains. The point is that Armenian
NGOs are going to ask the European Human Rights Court to oblige
Azerbaijan to reimburse material and moral damage to Armenian
refugees. So, we can sum up certain results here: first, if we give a
thought to Azimov's words, it turns out that the US still hopes that
Azerbaijan will accept the co-chairs' (OSCE Minsk Group - REGNUM)
`Prague Process' scenario. Or he wouldn't say right after coming back
from the US that `America should understand and Armenia should
remember...' Second, after the failure of the `Prague Process,' the
Armenians are eager to show as if it is Azerbaijan who wants a new
war. No coincidence that the Armenian media report Yuri Merzlyakov
(OSCE MG Russian co-chair - REGNUM) to say that it is Azerbaijan who
is responsible for the growing tensions and that such actions will
lead to nothing good. But if we give a good thought to this, it turns
out that it is exactly Armenia who wants a new war at the present
stage.'
The daily says: `Despite its growing military expenses, Azerbaijan
has not yet got overwhelming military prevalence over Armenia. But
otherwise it will not be able to attain drastic results in the battle
field. In the coming few years Azerbaijan may bring its military
spending up to the level of 3-4 Armenian state budgets.'
First: Armenia's economy will not be able to keep pace. Second: by
debarring Armenia from regional projects, Azerbaijan is depriving it
of any economic prospects. The last such serious project may be the
building of the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Tbilisi-Baku railroad. Armenia is
not only pronouncing but is also acting against this project. US
Senators Rick Santorum and Robert Menendez have already drafted a
bill urging the Senate to ban any support of this project linking
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and bypassing Armenia, reports the
Armenian Assembly of America. And third: in a few years, when
Azerbaijan gets an overwhelming military prevalence over Armenia,
first of all, in quality, it will be able to speak `from a position
of strength.'
Such tactics will be good for Azerbaijan if it `preserves the
situation' for a while and waits for better times, while Armenia
can't wait for `better times.' That's why its officials openly say
they are not going to wait for Azerbaijan to get stronger and may
deal `a preventive blow.'
And now let's return to the social-humanitarian problems we may have
if the conflict is resolved. Unfortunately, Armenia's threats to
appeal to the European Human Rights Court for refugee compensation
are not as absurd as they may seem. 250,000 Azeris have left Armenia
since the beginning of the conflict, i.e. since 1988, against 350,000
Armenians leaving Azerbaijan. That is, Armenia has gained a seeming
prevalence over us due to its `creeping deportation' of Azeris during
the Soviet times. But we have made things even worse by fully
integrating the refugees from Armenia into our society. That is,
today almost all the refugees from Armenia have Azeri citizenship and
can no longer be regarded as refugees by the international law. By
speculating on the social-political problems of the refugees from
Armenia, the ruling party and some opposition forces have got them
fully integrated into the Azeri society and have deprived Azerbaijan
of this serious tramp. They should have kept them `refugee' - with
certain civil and political restrictions - by stipulating that their
status will be finalized after the settlement of the Armenian-Azeri
conflict. While now, with just a few thousands of official refugees
we may see our next generations working hard to `feed' some 200,000
Armenians. To avoid this, we must, first, try to change the situation
with the refugees from Armenia, that is, to change their legal status
so that international organizations regard them as `refugees.' This
is a hard thing to do, at least, because we'll have to deprive them
of some of their civil and political rights. Not being a lawyer, I
can't say if this is legally possible at all. Second, we must
urgently find who to oblige to reimburse the `displacement' and
`occupation' damage. This will be Armenia provided that Azerbaijan
has taken the Armenian-Azeri problem back to the UN Security Council
and gets it to recognize Armenia as an aggressor. This will not only
equalize our chances but will even give us advantage... (Zerkalo)
Speaking of peace opportunities in Nagorno Karabakh at the RFE/RL
Washington Office, the director of the Caucasian project of the
International Crisis Group Sabine Freizer says that the Karabakh
conflict is not frozen: dozens of soldiers and civilians are dying on
the contact line because of cease fire violations. This line is
closer to Azeri villages, that's why Azerbaijan is sustaining more
casualties. Frazer says that even though she does not believe in a
new war in the coming years, she is seriously concerned over the
growing military activity on both sides, which makes the situation
worse and allows such strong regional players as Russia, the US,
Iran, Turkey to deeper interfere in the conflict.
Frazer says that there is a big possibility that a compromise peace
agreement will be signed by the leaders, but there is a small
possibility that this agreement will be supported by the peoples.
Hence, in order to foster mutual confidence, the sides should not
only actively negotiate but also encourage contacts between Armenians
and Azeris. Freizer says that it will be hard to implement any signed
agreement. For example, the level of destruction in the `occupied'
Azeri territories is much higher than in the Balkans. These
territories are in such a deplorable state that the return of
displaced persons there will take several years, at least, says
Freizer.
Iran
The preliminary agreement on Azerbaijan's accession into the
anti-Iranian coalition was reached in Washington in late Mar during
Azeri Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov's meetings with US
diplomats, reports Aina Mar 31.
Zerkalo says: `The decision to take part in the anti-Iranian
coalition is very hard for Azerbaijan. Particularly, the Americans
may use the Iran-based ethnic Azeris as a force center. They may
become a kind of `fifth pillar' for the US and, naturally, Iran is
already taking action to intercept any messages to its ethnic
minorities. And this is only preliminary reaction. If Azerbaijan
takes more specific action to support the US, Iran will certainly
response in much tougher measures.'
It is more than probable that in this case Iran, together with
Russia, will do its utmost to fuel the tensions on the Armenian-Azeri
contact line. This will benefit both Tehran and Moscow as this will
allow them to manipulate both Azerbaijan and Armenia. This will make
Yerevan and Baku think ten times before providing even tiniest help
to the US. Besides, the resumption of even local military actions on
the Armenian-Azeri conflict zone will strongly reduce the possibility
of anti-Iranian strikes from the territory of Azerbaijan - one can't
wage a war from the territory of a country who is at war itself. To
this end, Iran and Russia may start inciting both sides to war. To
Azerbaijan they may promise: `Start and we will help you to get back
some of your districts.' With Armenia things are much easier: Iran
and Russia are its strategic, economic and political partners in the
region and may well claim repayment of `debts'...
`The other `response' Azerbaijan may get from Iran may be the Islamic
factor. Until recently Azerbaijan has paid no special attention to
the Islamic factor and Iran's relevant activities. They in Baku
believed there were no strong pro-Iranian Islamists in Azerbaijan.
But the `cartoon scandal' and the reaction to it in Azerbaijan have
proved otherwise. We do have Islamists, and Iran may well use them if
Azerbaijan supports the US initiatives.
Given the extreme religiousity of the Baku villages and Southern
Azerbaijan, `a good push' may set a critical mass of people into
action that will be hard to stop. Even more, Iran may raise the whole
so-called `Arab Street' against us, and it is a big question if our
police will be able to cope with a cohort of extremists from the
Middle East.'
Echo reports the US to be considering a scenario of military
assistance of Azerbaijan. Experts say that Azerbaijan must be ready
for Iran's counter-attack. `Experts say that today the threat of a
military strike on Iran is as real as never before. In its article
`Scenarios of American Strike' Al Ahram daily from Egypt says that in
case of war Iran will counter-act by striking on the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. Its missiles can well hit the US
and European oil facilities in the Caspian Sea,' says Echo.
Independent military expert Uzeir Jafarov says: `The US certainly has
a specific plan on Iran, and this plan has several possible
scenarios. The Americans always have several scenarios - both
optimistic and pessimistic. No coincidence they are exercising the
possibility of aggression against Azerbaijan by an imaginary
neighbor. After the USSR collapse we have liquidated half of our
chemical troops and should there be a chemical attack on Azerbaijan,
both our army and people will have serious problems. That's probably
why the Americans are considering this scenario at exercises and are
training our specialists at seminars how to be most efficient during
such force majeure situations.'
`I feel there will be really hot in our region in April. We should be
ready for aggravating situation in all directions. America has
specific plans, Iran has reasons of its own. So, I am sure that if
American strikes a crushing blow on Iran, we will hardly avoid its
repercussion. Even if Azerbaijan gives no official consent to the use
of its territory by the US troops, Iran may still hit at the objects
of the US economic interest in Azerbaijan: the oil facilities in the
Caspian Sea, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. This all may be an act of
despair by the Iranian regime,' says Jafarov.