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  • Is Azerbaijan getting ready to attack Armenia? NKR press digest

    Regnum, Russia
    April 23 2006

    Is Azerbaijan getting ready to attack Armenia? Nagorno Karabakh press
    digest



    Is Azerbaijan getting ready to attack Armenia?



    "The Azeri army will attack Armenia in a few days," reports Media
    Forum (Azerbaijan), with reference to www.hurhaber.com (Turkey). The
    web-site says that "this information has been provided by diplomatic
    sources." "The Azeri authorities have been seriously preparing for
    liberating Karabakh and have already decided to start a war." The
    intensive contacts between the US and Azerbaijan are also due to the
    forthcoming military operation in Karabakh. Referring to diplomatic
    sources, www.hurhaber.com says that US President George Bush will
    receive Azeri representatives on April 20 and notes that Bush
    approves of Azerbaijan's plans to start a war in Karabakh. The
    web-site also says that the military operation in Karabakh may impact
    the world oil prices. (PanARMENIAN.Net)



    "The vanguard of our army, our officers are fully prepared for war.
    But we still continue training them to make them even more
    professional," says the director of the Training Center of the Azeri
    Defense Ministry, Maj. Gen. Lankaran Aliyev. He says that "the
    Armenian army is far behind the Azeri one in both psychological and
    physical training." "The Armenians rely on the Russian base in their
    country. That's why their army is much weaker than ours," says
    Aliyev. He notes that the Azeri youth have shown increasing interest
    in military service in the last years. They come to the army
    prepared. "We have a normal base for training our soldiers in line
    with the NATO standards. Our officers are much better trained than
    the Armenian ones. But I don't think that this is enough. We have yet
    much to do to make our officers even more efficient," says Aliyev.
    (APA)



    The director of the "Peace, Democracy and Culture"
    Research-Analytical Center, military and conflict expert, veteran of
    the Afghani and Karabakh wars Rauf Rajabov gives an interview to
    Day.Az (abridged).



    "In early 2006 the Azeri Government set up the Defense Industry
    Ministry and budgeted $600 mln for the army. Is the army having
    plenty of problems - from bullying and corruption to lack of military
    doctrine - ready to 'digest' such big money?



    The analysis of the Azeri army's non-combat losses of the last few
    months has shown that no real reforms are being held in our defense
    ministry. But this is a kind of taboo in Azerbaijan. The same is for
    the use of budgetary assignments. I would like to note from the very
    beginning that I am talking about ordinary military units rather than
    a few elite and well trained groups.



    What enemy will our army face if the war resumes?



    The Armenian army has almost 61,000 servicemen (and 300,000-strong
    mobilization reserve). Jan 1 2001 Yerevan declared to have 102 tanks,
    204 infantry fighting vehicles, including 677 units not subject to
    the TCAFE restrictions (Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe
    - REGNUM), 225 122-mm and more guns, 8 planes and 12 helicopters, 32
    'Scad' surface-to-surface ballistic missile units. As of today, the
    land forces of Armenia have 4 motorized brigades, 10 infantry
    regiments, 1 artillery brigade, 2 anti-aircraft brigades. The period
    of deployment of the uniquely strong Russian base in Gyumri is 25
    years, but can be prolonged for an indefinite time. The duty of the
    Russians is to guard the borders with Turkey and Iran and to act
    within the CIS United Air Defense System. Besides ordinary motorized
    infantry, 90 tanks, 200 armored vehicles and 100 guns, the base has
    25 MiG-29 fighters, 20 troop carriers and 4 S-300V anti-aircraft
    missile systems. No other Russian division this kind of equipment.
    The personnel is 3,500 people, with many of them ethnic Armenians
    with Russian citizenship. The headquarters of the 102nd base are in
    the Big Fortress, built by Cossacks in 1828.



    And what armed forces does the so-called 'NKR' have?



    Nagorno Karabakh is not a subject of the international law and,
    consequently, is not a member of the Treaty on Conventional Armed
    Forces in Europe. Hence, the territory of the Karabakh region is not
    inspected by international experts. Some analysts say that Nagorno
    Karabakh has 20,000 men in active troops, 60,000 men in reserve and
    4,000 men in various security services. It also has 316 tanks (300
    more 'hidden'), 324 infantry fighting vehicles, 322 122-mm and more
    caliber guns, 44 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and modernized
    S-123 and S-75 anti aircraft units. The whole 250-km contact line is
    a two-echelon field work. Also there, are 30,000 Armenian servicemen.
    The hardware and arms deployed in Karabakh is by no means subject to
    the TCAFE. This does not mean, however, that we should tremble before
    the enemy. No, we simply should know about it as much as possible and
    think in real categories: facile optimism has not yet given anybody
    any good..." (Day.Az)



    PanARMENIAN.Net has interviewed First Vice President of the Academy
    of Geopolitical Studies, Colonel General, Doctor of Historical
    Sciences Leonid Ivashov.



    How serious are Azerbaijan's statements on readiness to resumption of
    hostilities on the Karabakh front?



    Security issues should always be treated seriously. Given the
    complexity of the Nagorno Karabakh problem, security is the main task
    of the state and the major responsibility of the President and the
    Government. Only via military balance it's possible to preserve
    political settlement. The threat of an armed conflict and resumption
    of hostilities is quite real. Keeping the situation within a
    political settlement is possible only via balance of military
    potentials. Domination of military force of one of the parties can
    result in a new bloodshed.



    Which is Russia's policy towards settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh
    conflict?



    The present Russian leadership lacks a precise strategy on the South
    Caucasus. In relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia tries to
    keep the balance of friendly interaction. This line has helped to
    maintain peace in Karabakh for many years already.



    It seems lately that Russia is trying to strengthen its position in
    the South Caucasus by resorting to not very popular means. Is this
    true?



    The reasonable part of the Russian leadership is trying to maintain
    its presence and influence in the Caucasus. It's important for Russia
    to prevent destabilization in the North Caucasus, deployment of NATO
    military bases and projection of military force inland. In my
    opinion, Armenia is Russia's foothold in the South Caucasus. At the
    same time, it is vitally important for Armenia to have allied
    relations with Russia. If Armenia relies on promises made by the
    West, it will lose its state system and independence.



    Won't Georgia's and Azerbaijan's possible escape from Russia's
    influence leave Armenia isolated in its hope for the good will of
    Russia, who may well act the same way it did in 1921 by concluding an
    alliance with Ataturk?



    Armenia has the right to establish relations with whoever it wants.
    But if it conflicts with Russia's interests, Moscow can transform
    cooperation into the level of mutually beneficial relations without
    any political or economic preferences. However, such situation will
    conflict with Armenia's national interests and will result in the
    isolation of the republic and even in its collapse. A large Armenian
    Diaspora lives in Russia. I think it could make a great contribution
    to the development of the Russian-Armenian allied relations."
    (PanARMENIAN.Net)



    If one cocks an ear to what the Kremlin has been saying recently, one
    will see that new war is not the worst way for Russia: war is better
    for that country than the peace proposed by the West, says 525th
    Daily in response to General Ivashov's interview. It should also be
    noted that, unlike his US and French colleagues, the Russian co-chair
    of the OSCE MG Yuri Merzlyakov makes no demonstrative calls for
    reconciliation. "In this light, the statements of General Ivashov,
    who was the chief of Russia's general staff before 2001, may well be
    taken as Moscow's attitude to this problem. Besides, the organization
    Ivashov heads now is one of the leading security studies centers in
    Russia."



    The most acceptable way for Azerbaijan to solve the Karabakh problem
    is war, say 83% of the visitors of the web-site of Times.az
    independent daily. Apr 14 the daily summed up the results of its
    one-month on-line voting. 14.7% of the visitors hope for diplomatic
    solution and only 2.2% don't care at all. (Noyan Tapan)



    The mediators' efforts



    "War will be the worst scenario for the parties to the Karabakh
    conflict. War is new deaths, new refugees, money spent in vain
    instead of being spent on development. War will solve nothing.
    However it ends, the sides will find themselves in pre-war situation
    again," De Facto reports the French co-chair of the OSCE MG Bernard
    Fassier as saying in Yerevan on April 14.



    "Under no circumstances can war be a solution. That's why we
    officially call on the sides to look to the future, to build peace
    despite past tragedies. One can't drive a car by constantly looking
    into the backward mirror. He will certainly get into accident. You
    should not keep remembering who was the first who started the war,
    who was the first in history who settled down in Karabakh...," says
    Fassier. "After Rambouillet the negotiating process has not died. It
    is alive." Speaking metaphorically, the sides and the mediators came
    to Rambouillet with a half-full glass and just failed to fill it a
    bit more. Of course, the mediators understood that they would not be
    able to fill the glass at once, but they hoped to add a bit to its
    content. They failed. But the half-full glass was not overturned. And
    so, the negotiating process is continued," says Fassier. He says that
    the OSCE MG US co-chair Steven Mann will visit the region after the
    Easter and he too may visit Yerevan and Baku in late Apr-early May.
    "All these visits are not private but are coordinated with the
    capitals of the co-chair states. On April 15, I will go to Moscow to
    meet not only with my Russian colleague Yuri Merzlyakov but also with
    Russian Deputy Defense Minister Karasin, who deals with the Karabakh
    problem," says Fassier. Besides, in early May the OSCE MG co-chairs
    will hold a consultation in Moscow, after which they will visit the
    region all together. This may well be followed by new meetings. The
    objective of these visits is to pave the way for a new meeting of the
    Armenian and Azeri presidents. "I can't give the date and venue of
    that meeting. Nothing is clear yet. We hope that we will be able to
    organize it in June-July. Everything depends on what the presidents
    will agree to. The presidents of the co-chair countries believe that
    - the sooner the better," says Fassier.



    "I would like to say that if we hope to organize a new meeting of the
    presidents, this means that we are ready to present additional ideas
    for them to enrich, enlarge and develop the principles we have
    already worked on. I also mean some new ideas, but not new talks or a
    new format. The format of the talks is and will be the OSCE MG,
    represented by the US, France and Russia. But, at the same time, this
    format is being adapted. That is, we are no longer satisfied with
    joint visits and mission. We are firmly resolved to use any occasion
    for resolving the conflict. For example, we used the visits of
    Oskanyan and Mamedyarov (Armenian and Azeri FMs - REGNUM) to Moscow
    and Washington. Some people may think that we have changed the
    format. No. We have just adapted of the content of the format," says
    Fassier.



    Commenting on Fassier's speech, the expert of the Armenian Center for
    National and International Studies Stepan Safaryan says to A1+ that
    in this format the Karabakh peace process is doomed to failure, and
    the co-chairs perfectly know that. "Simply, they want to present the
    final picture of failure so the world community apply serious
    measures against the presidents. The world community sees that the
    presidents are not willing to resolve the conflict and are just
    making empty statements, while the co-chairs are trying to give them
    one more chance," says Safaryan. He is sure that 2006 will be the
    last such chance.



    Radio Liberty reports the Russian and US co-chairs of the OSCE MG
    Yuri Merzlyakov and Steven Mann to meet in Moscow on April 19. "He
    (Mann) is going to the region firmly resolved and expecting serious
    and fruitful meetings," Merzlyakov says in an interview to RL. In
    early May the OSCE MG co-chairs are visiting the region. If they
    agree on a new meeting of the Armenian and Azeri presidents, will
    this mean that the presidents have accepted the MG's new proposals?
    To this question Merzlyakov said: "No. Perhaps, after the meeting
    part of the proposals will be accepted, and the rest left for
    revision. All these issues should be discussed during the president's
    meeting." RL reports that the MG has already told the presidents
    about their new proposals. And whether they are acceptable or not
    will become known after the co-chairs' visit to the region. While the
    Armenian and Azeri FMs will be in Moscow to attend the April 20
    meeting of the CIS FMs, Merzlyakov will meet with Azeri FM Elmar
    Mamedryarov and, probably, with Armenian FM Vardan Oskanyan. The
    latter meeting is not certain as Oskanyan will stay in Moscow for a
    very short time.



    "It is early yet to speak about the MG's new proposals for the
    Karabakh conflict settlement. The proposals should first be grouped
    and formulated so we can say something about them. We will express
    our opinion only if a specific proposal is made," the director of the
    foreign relations department of the Azeri president's staff Novruz
    Mamedov says to APA. He believes that decisive are the positions of
    the sides rather than of the co-chairs: "The sides should make some
    changes in their positions, should take constructive stance and
    serious steps for solving the problem." Commenting on the statements
    of the French co-chair Bernard Fassier that based on the last
    proposals the sides can achieve 80% of what they want and of the
    Russian co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov that if the sides get 50% of what
    they claim, the co-chairs will be able to consider their mission
    fulfilled, Mamedov says that the co-chairs' proposals are based on
    their personal views: "Even their views do not coincide. Our key task
    is to liberate our occupied territories, to repatriate displaced
    people and to ensure the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in line
    with the international law."



    Has Armenia changed its position on Nagorno Karabakh?



    "Until recently we have said that the status of Nagorno Karabakh must
    be finalized before Armenia starts discussing the elimination of the
    conflict consequences: territories, refugees, security measures,"
    Armenian FM Vardan Oskanyan said at the opening of the 8th meeting of
    the EU-Armenia inter-parliamentary cooperation commission in Yerevan
    April 18. He said that this position has changed: "If Azerbaijan
    agrees that the Nagorno Karabakh people has a right to
    self-determination - if not at once then, at least, in the future -
    the Armenian side is ready already today to start discussing the
    problems of territories, refugees and security."



    Oskanyan said that this is "a serious concession by the Armenian
    side." He said that the Azeri side has not yet reacted to this
    proposal, and today it is necessary to work with the Azeris more so
    "they take a step towards Armenians." Commenting on one more serious
    issue - the statements of Azerbaijan that the conflict may be
    resolved by war, Oskanyan said: "If this conflict had a military
    solution, it would have already been resolved. But there is no such
    solution: there have already been two wars, and Armenians have won
    both of them. But we do not consider themselves as victors. We have
    won the battle, but the threat of war is still existent as Azerbaijan
    continues making warlike declarations. We need peace." Oskanyan urged
    the Europeans to force the Azeris to stop their militarist rhetoric.
    "They should be clearly told that nobody will allow them to start a
    war against Armenia. This is very important, and I believe that the
    European Parliament should be involved in this process. Azerbaijan
    must understand that there is no other solution to the conflict than
    peace." (Azg)

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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