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ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER GEARS UP FOR PRESIDENCY
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor
June 13 2006
Armenia's second most powerful official, Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian, is eliminating the last remaining doubts about his intention
to succeed President Robert Kocharian after the latter completes a
second five-year term in office in 2008. The past few weeks have
made it even clearer that the two men have agreed on a rotation
of power that could allow them to dominate Armenian politics for
another decade. In a country that has failed to hold a single election
recognized as free and fair by the international community, the opinion
of voters is considered marginal for the realization of this scenario.
Sarkisian effectively kicked off his presidential campaign last week
thanks to an event that could hardly be more apolitical. Armenia's
national chess team notched a victory at the 37th Chess Olympiad,
which ended in Turin on June 4. The six grandmasters and their coach
received a hero's welcome as they returned to Yerevan two days later
and addressed several thousand people in the city's Freedom Square.
Sarkisian also received congratulations and delivered a speech to
the jubilant crowd broadcast live by state television. He happens
to be chairman of the Armenian Chess Federation and stayed with the
players in Turin throughout the two-week competition. Some government
officials and even army generals who joined in the celebrations were
quick to claim that this fact was key to the Armenian chess triumph.
Sarkisian, himself a keen chess player, stopped short of explicitly
taking credit for the success, but clearly enjoyed himself, looking
more like a politician on the campaign trail than a sport executive.
For a man long vilified by his political opponents and disliked by
many disgruntled Armenians, it was quite a public relations stunt.
For local observers, it was a taste of things to come.
That Sarkisian is Kocharian's preferred successor was essentially
confirmed on May 20 by the Armenian president's national security
adviser, Garnik Isagulian. "One of those who is most experienced and
ready to be the next president of Armenia is Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian," he stated at a news conference. "In this case, Armenia's
current political course will be pursued."
Indeed, Kocharian could hardly find a more reliable partner who
would guarantee his personal security and let him continue to play
a major role in Armenia's government. Kocharian and Sarkisian have
long known and worked with each other. They both come from Karabakh,
having jointly governed the Armenian-controlled disputed region
during its successful war with Azerbaijan before ending up in senior
government positions in Armenia. They both were instrumental in the
1998 resignation of Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosian,
the man who had brought them to Yerevan.
The Kocharian-Sarkisian duo has proved more effective (and ruthless)
in clinging to power than Ter-Petrosian, securing the allegiance
of a wide range of pro-establishment parties and clans through a
combination of sticks and carrots. The latter have taken the form
of largely insignificant government posts that enable the leaders of
those groups to enrich themselves but not endanger the duo's exclusive
grip on defense, law-enforcement, the judiciary, foreign affairs, tax
collection, and dealings with large-scale foreign investors. None of
the state institutions managing these key policy areas is accountable
to Armenia's cabinet of ministers. Kocharian and Sarkisian are also
believed to control a narrow circle of wealthy businessmen that enjoy
a de facto monopoly on lucrative imports of fuel and basic commodities.
The pro-establishment groups, especially those represented in the
government, allow Armenia's leaders to not only defuse public anger
with their policies but also to somehow legitimize their rule,
which has been tarnished by chronic vote rigging. (Kocharian was
twice "elected" president in 1998 and 2003 and neither election was
deemed democratic by Western observers.) Sarkisian is widely expected
to officially join forces with one of those governing factions to
actively participate in the next parliamentary election, due in May
2007 and seen as a rehearsal of the 2008 presidential ballot. His
most obvious choice is Prime Minister Andranik Markarian's Republican
Party of Armenia (HHK). However, the powerful defense chief is in
no rush to team up with the HHK, suggesting that he is considering
other options as well.
There has already been speculation about the possibility of Sarkisian
cutting deals with two new, but extremely ambitious, parties sponsored
by Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian and influential "oligarch"
Gagik Tsarukian. Their emergence earlier this year drew concern from
another member of the governing coalition, the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (HHD). One of its leaders, Hrant Markarian, has charged
that both parties are bent on resorting to large-scale vote buying.
According to Hmayak Hovannisian, a supposedly independent lawmaker who
is reputedly close to Sarkisian, Tsarukian's "Prosperous Armenia" party
was set up with the aim of securing Kocharian's political future. The
Armenian leader, he told reporters recently, wants to become prime
minister after handing over the presidency to Sarkisian and therefore
needs to have a serious power base in the next parliament. Hovannisian
further said that Kocharian and Sarkisian would strive to ensure that
the HHK, Prosperous Armenia, and Hovsepian's "Association for Armenia"
party win the 2007 election at any cost.
This scenario, if true, bodes ill for the freedom and fairness of the
upcoming polls. Kocharian and Sarkisian are widely held responsible
for entrenching Armenia's post-Soviet culture of electoral fraud,
and there is no reason to expect them to renounce something that has
served them so well.
(Armenian Public Television, June 7; Iravunk, May 26; 168 Zham,
May 23; RFE/RL Armenia Report, May 17)
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor
June 13 2006
Armenia's second most powerful official, Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian, is eliminating the last remaining doubts about his intention
to succeed President Robert Kocharian after the latter completes a
second five-year term in office in 2008. The past few weeks have
made it even clearer that the two men have agreed on a rotation
of power that could allow them to dominate Armenian politics for
another decade. In a country that has failed to hold a single election
recognized as free and fair by the international community, the opinion
of voters is considered marginal for the realization of this scenario.
Sarkisian effectively kicked off his presidential campaign last week
thanks to an event that could hardly be more apolitical. Armenia's
national chess team notched a victory at the 37th Chess Olympiad,
which ended in Turin on June 4. The six grandmasters and their coach
received a hero's welcome as they returned to Yerevan two days later
and addressed several thousand people in the city's Freedom Square.
Sarkisian also received congratulations and delivered a speech to
the jubilant crowd broadcast live by state television. He happens
to be chairman of the Armenian Chess Federation and stayed with the
players in Turin throughout the two-week competition. Some government
officials and even army generals who joined in the celebrations were
quick to claim that this fact was key to the Armenian chess triumph.
Sarkisian, himself a keen chess player, stopped short of explicitly
taking credit for the success, but clearly enjoyed himself, looking
more like a politician on the campaign trail than a sport executive.
For a man long vilified by his political opponents and disliked by
many disgruntled Armenians, it was quite a public relations stunt.
For local observers, it was a taste of things to come.
That Sarkisian is Kocharian's preferred successor was essentially
confirmed on May 20 by the Armenian president's national security
adviser, Garnik Isagulian. "One of those who is most experienced and
ready to be the next president of Armenia is Defense Minister Serge
Sarkisian," he stated at a news conference. "In this case, Armenia's
current political course will be pursued."
Indeed, Kocharian could hardly find a more reliable partner who
would guarantee his personal security and let him continue to play
a major role in Armenia's government. Kocharian and Sarkisian have
long known and worked with each other. They both come from Karabakh,
having jointly governed the Armenian-controlled disputed region
during its successful war with Azerbaijan before ending up in senior
government positions in Armenia. They both were instrumental in the
1998 resignation of Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosian,
the man who had brought them to Yerevan.
The Kocharian-Sarkisian duo has proved more effective (and ruthless)
in clinging to power than Ter-Petrosian, securing the allegiance
of a wide range of pro-establishment parties and clans through a
combination of sticks and carrots. The latter have taken the form
of largely insignificant government posts that enable the leaders of
those groups to enrich themselves but not endanger the duo's exclusive
grip on defense, law-enforcement, the judiciary, foreign affairs, tax
collection, and dealings with large-scale foreign investors. None of
the state institutions managing these key policy areas is accountable
to Armenia's cabinet of ministers. Kocharian and Sarkisian are also
believed to control a narrow circle of wealthy businessmen that enjoy
a de facto monopoly on lucrative imports of fuel and basic commodities.
The pro-establishment groups, especially those represented in the
government, allow Armenia's leaders to not only defuse public anger
with their policies but also to somehow legitimize their rule,
which has been tarnished by chronic vote rigging. (Kocharian was
twice "elected" president in 1998 and 2003 and neither election was
deemed democratic by Western observers.) Sarkisian is widely expected
to officially join forces with one of those governing factions to
actively participate in the next parliamentary election, due in May
2007 and seen as a rehearsal of the 2008 presidential ballot. His
most obvious choice is Prime Minister Andranik Markarian's Republican
Party of Armenia (HHK). However, the powerful defense chief is in
no rush to team up with the HHK, suggesting that he is considering
other options as well.
There has already been speculation about the possibility of Sarkisian
cutting deals with two new, but extremely ambitious, parties sponsored
by Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian and influential "oligarch"
Gagik Tsarukian. Their emergence earlier this year drew concern from
another member of the governing coalition, the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation (HHD). One of its leaders, Hrant Markarian, has charged
that both parties are bent on resorting to large-scale vote buying.
According to Hmayak Hovannisian, a supposedly independent lawmaker who
is reputedly close to Sarkisian, Tsarukian's "Prosperous Armenia" party
was set up with the aim of securing Kocharian's political future. The
Armenian leader, he told reporters recently, wants to become prime
minister after handing over the presidency to Sarkisian and therefore
needs to have a serious power base in the next parliament. Hovannisian
further said that Kocharian and Sarkisian would strive to ensure that
the HHK, Prosperous Armenia, and Hovsepian's "Association for Armenia"
party win the 2007 election at any cost.
This scenario, if true, bodes ill for the freedom and fairness of the
upcoming polls. Kocharian and Sarkisian are widely held responsible
for entrenching Armenia's post-Soviet culture of electoral fraud,
and there is no reason to expect them to renounce something that has
served them so well.
(Armenian Public Television, June 7; Iravunk, May 26; 168 Zham,
May 23; RFE/RL Armenia Report, May 17)