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  • Two-Digit Growth Is a Compromise Between Government and Administrati

    TWO-DIGIT GROWTH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN GOVERNMENT AND ADMINISTRATIVE CRIMINAL RESOURCE

    Lragir.am
    31 July 06

    The government of Armenia stopped taking pride in the rate of economic
    growth in Armenia long ago. The president of Armenia has not cut red
    tapes and visited factories for a long time. In fact, it does not
    mean that there is no economic growth or the rate slowed down. By
    official statistics, two-digit economic growth goes on, and in the
    first half of 2006 it totaled over 11 percent. For the government this
    has become something usual, however. So usual that they are already
    ashamed of talking about it. Moreover, this shame has two levels. The
    first is that the two-digit growth remains the decoration of tables
    of a group of people. Hence, it is definitely inappropriate to feed
    people with official statistical achievements for the simple reason
    that people cannot eat it. After all, the elite must realize that it
    is even disgusting to eat meat all the time, let alone numbers. It is
    not a secret, however, that only one source of shame is hardly enough
    to cause a feeling of discomfort among the Armenian government. It is
    even too little. Fortunately, there is the second level, however. By
    its two-digit rate Armenia is no longer a tiger in the region, or it
    is not the only tiger in the region. Especially, compared with our
    main rival, Azerbaijan. The GDP of Azerbaijan grew by 40 percent
    in the first half of 2006. It is official statistics, of course,
    but we have no reason to state that theirs is a lie, ours is not. In
    other words, when the government continues supplying the public with
    boring figures about the economic growth, it is sure to find itself
    in a curious situation because they arouse a smile whenever they are
    compared with the Azerbaijani indices.

    Unfortunately, the government continues doing something. It continues
    persuading the public that despite oil underlying the Azerbaijani
    economy the state of Armenia is the best in the region. This thinking,
    which is consistently instilled in the public, pursues an aim which is
    clear. It "reassures" the public, guaranteeing unchangeable situation
    for the government. Therefore, they have stopped feeding the society
    with numbers, for it may cause the opposite reaction. They merely
    reconcile them with the situation, in other words, they help to stomach
    the figures. But it is the case when successful digestion may deeply
    ruin the health of the public, and consequently the country. To stomach
    this situation means to agree that the level of corruption, black
    economy, protectionism that is now will persist. Therefore, generation
    of economic growth becomes almost impossible, remaining on the same
    sustainable level. As for the distribution of growth, it is impossible
    due to the abovementioned vicious phenomena. Definitely, the same
    situation is in Azerbaijan, and it would not cause worries if there
    were not for the oil factor and 40 percent growth. According to the
    Armenian government, this growth does not have a quality. Maybe. But
    considering that the absolute volume of the Azerbaijani economy
    exceeds the Armenian economy twice, we may say that 40 percent growth
    of that economy is equal to 80 percent of economic growth in Armenia.

    In other words, in this comparison we may conclude that the economic
    growth in Azerbaijan exceeds Armenia nine times. And this quantitative
    difference is sure to become qualitative advantage one day.

    In such a situation this "reassurance" preached in Armenia and
    reflected in the economic policy of the Armenian government directly
    threatens national security. Export of several tons of apricots,
    building of several elite buildings and use of several information
    technologies is not economic quality. The underlying component of
    the quality of economy is the possibilities of the persons who have
    the wish and ability to participate in this economy. The quality
    of the economy is its agents, consumers and producers, and their
    relation generates growth. And the fact that economic growth in
    Armenia is between 11 and 13 percent over the past 5-6 years shows
    that the relationship between the agents of the economy is highly
    conventional and highly limited. And if there is a non-quality economy
    both in Armenia and in Azerbaijan, it is clear that quantity will
    be deciding. And if everything relies on the quantity, it is clear
    in what situation Armenia may appear in several years, despite the
    quality of elite apartments. It seems that it should be clear for the
    government because only the lazy do not say that Armenia should launch
    real economic reforms and democratization of the public life to oppose
    to oil. This point seems indisputable, and it can be the only path when
    the society will not argue with the society. However, the Armenian
    government prefers not to argue with the administrative criminal
    resource and make a compromise over 11-13 percent growth. In this
    case, there is no way out other than that the Armenian society wage
    a liberation war for the economy. After all, we defeated Azerbaijan,
    and it reports 40 percent economic growth. Let us imagine what a rate
    of growth we would report if we defeated ourselves.

    JAMES HAKOBYAN

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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