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Georgia: Russian Rumble

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  • Georgia: Russian Rumble

    International Periscope

    Newsweek

    Oct. 9, 2006 issue - Georgia: Russian Rumble
    Could Russia and Georgia soon be at war? After Georgian authorities
    arrested four Russian military officers last week and charged them
    with spying and terrorism, both sides have been doing a very good
    imitation of preparing for full-scale conflict. Georgian Interior
    Minister Vano Merabishvili claimed that the Russian Army was
    mobilizing in North Ossetia, and was preparing troops for action at a
    Russian base in Akhalkalaki, inside Georgia. Calls for "decisive
    action" came from Moscow parliamentarians as hundreds of nationals
    were evacuated from Tbilisi.
    How did relations get so bad? The two neighbors have been at
    loggerheads ever since the pro-U.S. Mikhail Saakashvili took power in
    Tbilisi in 2003.The Georgian president has moved his country rapidly
    toward NATO membership, and in apparent retaliation, Russia banned
    Georgian imports. And in recent months, Russian-backed separatists
    inside Georgia have stepped up operations, further heightening
    tensions.
    Still, for all of last week's saber rattling, it's unlikely that war
    will break out. Instead, Russia has chosen to protest to the United
    Nations... where Saakashvili recently accused the Kremlin of a
    "gangster occupation" of two breakaway Georgian provinces, Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia. That could play into Georgia's hands. If the United
    Nations becomes involved in resolving Georgia's territorial conflicts,
    Moscow's jealously guarded role as chief peacekeeper in the former
    Soviet Union will be eroded. Also, Tbilisi reckons it standsa better
    chance of ultimately recovering its wayward regions with the United
    Nations in charge. Still, provoking Russia is a dangerous
    tactic. There are powerful war parties in both Moscow and Tbilisi who
    are spoiling for a fight. If it comes, there's little doubt that
    Georgia will come off worse against a Russian Army flush with oil
    money and confidence.
    -Owen Matthews
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