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Finally, Progress On Karabakh Peace Talks?

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  • Finally, Progress On Karabakh Peace Talks?

    FINALLY, PROGRESS ON KARABAKH PEACE TALKS?
    By Fariz Ismailzade

    Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
    Oct 31 2006

    Recent statements by Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian at
    the Armenian National Assembly have raised hopes in Azerbaijan that a
    peaceful resolution to the Karabakh conflict is near. Specifically,
    Oskanian said, "We will discuss the return of all territories after
    the agreement on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is reached." The key
    word in this sentence is "all."

    Until now, the barrier to the resolution of the Karabakh conflict
    has been the unwillingness of the Armenian side to return all
    occupied regions outside of Karabakh. Official Yerevan has long
    insisted that only five out of seven regions would be returned,
    and Kalbajar and Lachin would be kept until the final resolution of
    the conflict. Both of these districts have special importance from
    a geostrategic perspective, as Kalbajar, with its high mountains,
    forms a natural defense system for Karabakh and Lachin provides a land
    corridor between Armenia and Karabakh. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has
    insisted on the liberation of all territories, with the possibility
    of providing joint usage to the Lachin corridor.

    Oskanian's statement indicates a possible change of attitude inside the
    Armenian political establishment and a small hope for the resolution of
    the conflict. Both sides are aware that the year of 2006, considered
    by local observers and international community as a "window of
    opportunity" due to the absence of elections in both countries,
    is rapidly coming to an end. The independent daily Zerkalo in Baku
    has even speculated that the Armenian authorities have started to
    lay the foundations for explaining the terms of the settlement to the
    Armenian public, as the "tone of Oskanian was more that of calming the
    members of Parliament." Zerkalo compared this act by the high-level
    government official with the attempt by former Armenian President Levon
    Ter-Petrosian to sell a "step-by-step" proposal to the Armenian public.

    Prior to Oskanian's statement, he met with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
    Elmar Mammadyarov in Paris on October 24 to discuss "additional
    elements of the basis of settlement" suggested by the OSCE's Minsk
    group co-chairs: Russia, the United States, and France.

    Mammadyarov also visited Moscow several weeks ago to separately
    discuss the settlement package with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
    Lavrov. Many in Azerbaijan believe that Moscow, Armenia's closest
    military and political ally, holds the key to resolving the Karabakh
    conflict.

    Both foreign ministers have agreed to further negotiate the offers
    by the international community in Brussels on November 14. They are
    using the current break in the talks to discuss these new proposals
    with their respective presidents and other domestic actors. Neither
    Oskanian nor Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov have
    ruled out a meeting between Armenian President Robert Kocharian and
    Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in late 2006, after the November
    meeting of the foreign ministers and the co-chairs' subsequent visit
    to the region. Taken together, these statements are positive signs,
    as they indicate that the positions of the two sides are slowly
    approaching each other, rather than widening the long-standing gap.

    Commenting on the statements by Oskanian, Tahir Tagizadeh, head
    of the Information and Press Department of the Azerbaijani Foreign
    Ministry, said that Azerbaijan considers these statements to be very
    positive. "The liberation of the occupied territories and the return
    of the [internally displaced persons] to their homes is an unavoidable
    fact for the Armenian side."

    Still, many analysts in Baku doubt that the recent positive
    statements by both sides will end up with the final settlement of
    the conflict. Indeed, the underlying problem is not the dispute over
    the return of the occupied territories, which many assume would be
    returned anyway, but rather the final status of Karabakh itself. The
    idea of a referendum as a means to resolve the "status" problem seems
    vague, and it is not clear if both communities would participate in
    it with equal power to vote no. Should the referendum idea be coupled
    with the agreement to give the majority ethnic group (Armenians) more
    power over the minority ethnic group (Azeris), it will be extremely
    difficult for the Azerbaijani president to accept this decision.

    As the next two years will be consumed by elections in both countries,
    it will be almost impossible for both presidents, having internal
    threats from both the opposition and from within the ruling elite,
    to agree on the painful concessions. Thus, despite the high optimism
    generated by the recent rapprochement of the positions of two sides,
    the picture remains bleak for the next several years.

    (Trend News Agency, Sherg, ANS TV, Zerkalo, Echo, October 25-27, 2006)
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