RECOGNIZING ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA
By A. Manvelian

AZG Armenian Daily
27/08/2008


Global, Regional

The resolution of the Russian President Dmitry Medvedyev to recognize
those self-declared states, which split from Georgia, starts a wave
of changes both in CIS and in world politics. Obviously, neither
the EU nor the United States shall follow Russia's example, although
Medvedyev advised them to.

It is also obvious that irrespective of the West's position, a new
process is starting in the practice of international relations,
which can be called a period of semi-recognized states.

Again, irrespective how Europe and America do feel about the process,
it is them who started it. It is them who, breaking the international
procedure of recognizing new sovereign states, recognized the
independence of Kosovo.

And now Russia, previously warning the West against such actions,
follows the very example of the west and recognizes Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. This means that there is no way back for Kosovo and
Russia shall never recognize it. It also becomes obvious that Serbia
finally lost Kosovo and Georgia lost Abkhazia with South Ossetia.

Still there is something positive about this matter for Armenia,
as henceforth Armenia's recognition of the independence of
Nagorno-Karabakh will not be considered as weird as it used to. And
Karabakh's independence is vital in sense of its security and the
further development of Armenia.

It is also obvious that Turkey's plans of establishing a
new organization in South Caucasus are becoming less and less
realistic. This does not mean that Erdogan's initiative will not
be considered on different, even the highest, levels. Anyways for a
very long time yet it will be impossible to push Georgia and Russia
to constructive talks.

However in such circumstances the role of Armenia in the region is
growing. Armenia will become more important not only because of being
the only stable state with steady development rates in South Caucasus,
but also because of becoming an alternative way for the West to reach
the energy sources of the Caspian.

This is why the questioning the border with Armenia is becoming more
and more important for Turkey, as the Georgian communications will
not be reliable any more.

To be reminded, two days ago George Bush made a statement urging Russia
to not to recognize Abkhazia and Ossetia. The debatable resolution
of Dmitry Medvedyev showed the world that the statements from the
White House are not as influential as they were before.