Hayk Aramyan

Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 11:37:30 - 31/07/2012

The Armenian press reported that Serzh Sargsyan and Gagik Tsarukyan
are trying to build relations and agree on the upcoming presidential
elections. This will be Serzh Sargsyan's second term so he will have
to get prepare the ground to hand the power. Sure, if there is no
force-majeure situation. Though, a force-majeure under the conditions
in Armenia would just mean acceleration of that process since the
main players here are the Republican and Prosperous Armenia parties.

Just like in 2007, in 2012 the "absolute victory" of the Republican
Party didn't solve the power issue in Armenia. The RPA received the
parliamentary majority and formed the government but the power is
virtual and senseless. Two "absolute victories" which are nothing
else but usurpation of the power by "well-known circles" deprived
the RPA of any ground and legitimacy.

This situation in turn will deepen against the background of formation
of civil initiatives which defined clear issues of Armenia.

Experts and analysts meant this circumstance when saying that Serzh
Sargsyan needs to get rid of the RPA in order to "stay" since it is
impossible to build power with such a party which has long become a
criminal-oligarchic poster. The last four years proved this statement.

Serzh Sargsyan either failed or didn't want to do that step though
before the elections, he had stated about a new quality parliament and
minimum representation of the oligarchy there. There is an opinion,
quite grounded, that one of the reasons is the behavior of the PAP
and ANC prior to elections, which "revived" those circles.

In short as it was expected, the Republicans didn't believe
Serzh Sargsyan to change. The second presidential term in an
anti-constitutional country, in particular in Armenia, is a "headache"
for the acting president who needs to find a successor and solve
the issue on the future. In this case, Serzh Sargsyan is in a very
complicated situation: he needs to find allies for election and for
the solution of the RPA issue and the shift of power.

One of the options is the PAP. Before the parliamentary elections, the
RPA hadn't intervened in the Ijevan elections and the PAP candidate won
who was supported by the Congress, ARF Dashnaktsutyun and Heritage. The
"Ijevan model" is used in Gyumri too where the RPA supports the PAP
candidate. Judging by the available information, the same is happening
in other large towns where elections of community heads are expected
in autumn. Come out of the central power, the PAP will step by step
take the real power - the cities, villages, "surrounding" Yerevan.

In the result of a "well-thought and far-fetching" policy, the Armenian
National Congress has become the "porter" of the Prosperous Armenia
party which tries to legitimize the PAP in streets and defend it from
civil claims. But Congress itself has lost legitimacy in "street"
and within civil frameworks, while its attacks against the civil
initiatives make that party more marginal.

The growing civil society is a real "headache" for the political system
especially because it has been setting tasks and solving all of them
recently. There was no such a thing among the parties unlike which
that have been working behind the society and making illegal deals,
the civil society does not strive for the power, so it is powerful.

This power will change the political system of Armenia and will solve
the issue on the formation of the power returning this right to the
people. No accident, one of the key issues of the political system
of Armenia is the elimination of the civil initiatives. The power,
the PAP and Congress are interested.

How to solve this issue? As it was noted, Congress is unable to fulfill
its current "function": there are several individuals who keep defaming
the civil initiatives in social nets and mass media. As to the PAP,
this party has its specific voters and has no issue relating to
the civil society but it is also threatened in terms of a political
prospect. So, it also concentrated big propaganda strength against
the civil sector.

Serzh Sargsyan, in turn, attending the board session of the police,
"granted" freedom to this structure which will also deal with the
elimination of the civil societies.

We can say that the future home political events will be oriented
towards the self-preservation of the political system and establishment
of the civil system of values. The political system of Armenia is
ill-timed and inadequate to the realities and its self-preservation
attempts will deepen even more the home political and systemic
crises. The signs are already in place when this system is again
trying to agree behind the back of the society.