SITUATION AROUND NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT MAY CHANGE AT ANY TIME

Trend
July 31 2012
Azerbaijan

There is a kind of tradition to hold the so-called "elections"
at the unrecognized separatist formations that appeared in the
territories of CIS countries as a result of armed conflicts, and to
invite representatives of other separatist regimes and subsequent
congratulations from their leaders who are elected by the people
of supposedly "independent republic", director of the Center of
Political innovations and Technologies Mubariz Ahmedoglu said. It
was so until recently.

However, after the "elections" held in the separatist Nagorno-Karabakh,
these "traditions" were suddenly broken. Despite the fact that
about two weeks has passed since that time, Bako Sahakyan, who was
elected "president" of Nagorno-Karabakh wasn't congratulated by his
colleagues in the separatist Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And the head
of the Transnistrian congratulated Sahakyan only 9 days after the
"presidential elections".

Ahmedoglu noted that it is a sensational, but not accidental case in
the practice of these self-proclaimed entities.

"No one doubts that Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria are
controlled by Russia. Leaders of these structures do not own the other
powers except for the domestic issues and issues of local importance.

And the influence of Russia is observed in the fact that "presidents"
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia didn't greet Sahakyan.

"The same instructions were given by Russian Foreign Minister to the
head of Transnistria," he said. "But its de facto leadership did not
like the statement made by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Karasin
that Transnistria will not be independent, but will become part of
Moldova with a special status. As a sign of protest, Tiraspol violated
Russia's instruction and congratulated B. Sahakyan."

He added that the facts testify to the fact that Moscow does not
intend to recognize the separatist regime in Nagorno-Karabakh.

He stressedthat the local Armenians are rather dissatisfied in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Therefore, Baku must focus on these issues.

"First of all, the Armenians could resort to any armed provocation,"
he said. "So, the Azerbaijani army must be in full combat readiness
for this provocation not to have effect."

Moreover, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is an integral part
of Azerbaijan, must not be a topic of the negotiations between Russia
and Azerbaijan.

"Third, Yerevan must understand that if the Armenian rockets fall on
unoccupied territory of Azerbaijan, this will be equivalent to the
fact that Azerbaijan will raise the issue of returning Zangezur to
Azerbaijan," he said. "If the operations go beyond the territories
occupied by Armenians, the Azerbaijani army, sooner or later, will
be in Zangezur."

He said that it is necessary to conduct certain work to prepare the
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to move under Azerbaijan's jurisdiction.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts.

Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group - Russia, France, and the U.S. -
are currently holding the peace negotiations.

Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.