Leonid Martirosyan

Azat Artsakh Newspaper NKR
November 30, 2009

Meeting of Armenian and azeri presidents,which took place in
Munich on November 22 originated wide publicity on Karabakh conflict
settlement. Particularly, we must tell, the panic began not because of
the discussion around basic principles of Karabakh conflict settlement
result, as it's clear, in today's conditions of extremal polarization
of the sides' positions on important questions, it's hardly possible
to expect any effective results. Breakthrough can not take place,
and in this sense, Munich meeting is not exclusion. Instead of this, I.

Aliyev became the news- maker of Munich meeting, who was the reason of
the panic, about whom was mentioned above. In Germany, azeri president,
in the threshold of meeting, made a number of warlike statements,
in particular, affirming that if official Baku loses hopes on talks
process, in this case "Azerbaijan have all rights to liberate its
lands by war way". We must confess, this sudden statement, which has
rich precedent, caused big ado. Moreover, these warlike statements
made impression on several mass medias and observers of unleashing war
actions by Azerbaijan. But how serious are the statements of Aliyev,
and is new war possible? Certainly, from geopolitical point of view,
taking into account problematic conditions and azeri-karabakh conflict
unresolvement, the war scenary can not be excluded in this situation.

Nevertheless, we can not doubt that azeri president makes clear
falsehood. It's necessary to say, this way is favorite for him, because
in threshold of nearly every round of armenian-azeri high level talks,
he makes warlike retoric statements. As we think, we can qualify the
statements of azeri president as tough diplomatic step. It's much
doubtable, he will dare to initiate war actions,as it will witness
about irrational mentality of president. But whatever treatment we
present towards Aliyev's intellectual skills,the fact of absence
of pragmatism is hardly doubtable in Aliyev's mind.He realizes,in
the situation when progressive world players interested to preserve
developed balance of the powers in the region, in case of unleashing
war, Azerbaijan not only gets any state's aid, but also it's doomed
to be sanctioned by international community.We must not underestimate
another restraining so called petty merchantilistic factor, it's
the interest of Aliyev in realisation of oil and gas projects, on
success of which depend the sizes of capital of president's family. In
addition to this, the political and economic interests of the centers
of extremely influensive power are connected with these energetic
contracts, who simply will not let Azerbaijan annul their plans. The
times, when official Baku could offend itself to take comparatively
independent decisions concerning to conducting wars, remained in
the deep past. Azerbaijan must make up with the fact, when his role
and authority decreased as a regional player, which became obvious
after armenian-turkish normalisation process initiation.Official
Baku seems to realize, that its foreign policy strategy began to
make mistakes. Today's nervousness explains harsh movements of
Azerbaijan, illogical actions of Baku as well. If as azeri official
representatives affirm, the process of Karabakh conflict settlement
goes according to azeri scenery,which is under the prejudices of
returning armenian occupied seven provinces, in this case the basic
question is originated. Why to threat Armenia by war in this case?
We think answer is clear, Baku falses. Using war blackmail, first
of all it is going to create good background, for realising its
maximalist position in settlement process.Second, his militarist
retoric speeches are addressed to Ankara, hoping to accept its aid
in Karabakh problem settlement and in addition to this, to hinder
armenian-azeri reprochement process. As concerns to possibility of
the start of war actions, the victory is not guaranteed to Baku in
new war. It could not succeed in war phase 1992-1994, though in this
case it had preference in human and technical plans. It hardly could
do now. Nevertheless, war is not the best way of solving political
tasks and OSCE MG co-chairs, mediator states must answer strictly to
militarist retoric statements of azeri side, and not limited by and
extremely weak precautions, as it was made in Munich.

As it's challenge not to only Armenia and Karabakh, but also to whole
international community. Even if this challenge is accompanied by
simple falsehood in Aliyev's style.