Putin Revealed His Intention

A lot of experts state that the agenda of the Russian president
Putin's December 2 visit to Armenia is to give a boost to the process
of membership to the Customs Union. They say the roadmap will be
discussed during Putin's visit, and the process will be accelerated.

In fact, the Kremlin has officially confirmed that Putin's visit will
begin in Gyumri. He will go to the 102nd Russian military base. He may
bring along a batch of weapons not to come empty-handed.

The issue of the Customs Union is just a veil on the agenda of Putin's
visit because the visit itself is a demonstration of power. On
September 3 Russia thwarted the process of signing of the EU-Armenia
Association Agreement, and now it is not interested in fast membership
of Armenia to the Customs Union. It is a bugbear for Armenia because
it is too difficult to establish relations and achieve agreements not
only with Armenia but also Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Putin is coming to Armenia to demonstrate power and therefore he
starts his visit at the military base in Gyumri. The question is whom
he demonstrates power. Does he want to demonstrate it to Turkey?
Together with Turkey Russia implements a nuclear power plant
construction project worth 20 billion dollars, tries to have Turkey
join the Customs Union, lays out the South Stream gas pipeline, is
getting ready to confront the challenges of normalization between Iran
and the West. Or is he demonstrating power to Azerbaijan whose number
one supplier of arms Russia is?

Or is Putin demonstrating power to Armenia, hinting that while in 1920
Russia's red army arrived in Armenia, in 2013 it is already in
Armenia. Perhaps therefore Putin chose December 2, the date of
capitulation of Armenia to the bolshevists. Putin has reasons to
threaten Armenia because recently he has become convinced that Armenia
is not only the government and the political opposition `on the
Russian line' but the dignified citizens who might be few but have a
strong sense of dignity and big awareness of the importance of

It is possible that Putin is demonstrating power to the citizens,
especially that the government of Armenia has vested in him the right
to intervene in Armenia's domestic affairs under the CSTO agreements.

It is possible that Putin is demonstrating power to the West.
Moreover, the West could be the main audience for the demonstration of
power, and Moscow hints that it will remain in the Caucasus, even if
it takes a war. Russia has nothing else to demonstrate in the
Caucasus. Russia has lost in economy and culture, war is its last
resort. In this sense, Moscow translates its words to actions that
Armenia is an outpost.

It means that Moscow will ensure an environment for normal operation
of its armed forces. In other words, Armenia is a military township
with an adequate concept of life, logic and psychology. In other
words, Russia is becoming an obstacle to the civil future of Armenia.
This does not mean that there will not be a civil life. There will be
just enough of it to support the military township.

Here is Russia's intention for Armenia. Moscow has run out of resource
and imagination for other programs in Moscow.

Although, there is no confidence that the resource will be enough to
turn Armenia to an outpost. After all, despite the colorful picture of
the society, there is a rise of national dignity and awareness of
state sovereignty, which is anchored in psychology and common sense.
If the citizens of Armenia do now demonstrate power, it is not due to
lack of power but reluctance to show off.

Hakob Badalyan
11:55 30/11/2013
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