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ARMENIAN DEFENSE MINISTER REPLACES DECEASED PRIME MINISTER
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
April 5 2007
Armenian President Robert Kocharian Armenian President Robert Kocharian
has appointed his longtime influential associate, Defense Minister
Serge Sarkisian, as prime minister, formalizing the latter's status
as Armenia's second-most powerful leader. The appointment, officially
announced on April 4, has been widely anticipated ever since the sudden
death on March 25 of the previous prime minister, Andranik Markarian,
which had heightened political uncertainty in the country ahead of
the upcoming parliamentary elections. Its impact on the outcome of the
elections, crucial for Kocharian's and Sarkisian's political future,
is unlikely to be significant though.
Sarkisian, 52, had already been expected to occupy the post of prime
minister after the May 12 vote as part of his apparent plans to become
Armenia's next president after Kocharian completes his second and final
term in office less than one year from now. Markarian's death from
a heart attack simply hastened the implementation of that putative
scenario. It also allowed Sarkisian to complete his smooth takeover
of the governing Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) of which the late
prime minister was the chairman. The HHK is looking to retain the
largest faction in parliament by capitalizing on its control of many
government bodies and other "administrative resources" that remain
key to winning Armenian elections.
Sarkisian always wielded far more power than Markarian, who had little
say on defense, foreign policy, law enforcement, tax collection, and
other key policy areas. The post of defense minister, which Sarkisian
has held for the past seven years, has enabled him to control some
lucrative sectors of the Armenian economy through loyal businessmen
without bearing responsibility for the government's economic policy. He
will now have to deal with socioeconomic issues and be responsible
for the government's failure to address them.
Whether or not that will reflect positively on the HHK's electoral
chances remains to be seen. As the Yerevan newspaper Azg noted, the
ruling party would gain even greater political clout but at the same
time run the risk of losing popular support because many Armenians
dislike Sarkisian.
Kocharian and leaders of his loyal parliament majority essentially
decided Sarkisian's appointment the day after Markarian's death. They
agreed that the HHK should continue to control the post. The party's
governing board unanimously nominated the defense chief for the job
on April 2.
Kocharian signed and announced a corresponding decree just before the
expiry of a constitutional deadline for replacing a prime minister
who has resigned, died, or been incapacitated. He appears to have
deliberately delayed the appointment until the last minute in order
to spare Sarkisian the need for a parliamentary approval of the new
government. Under Armenia's constitution, the new prime minister has
20 days to form his cabinet and another 20 days to submit its program
to the National Assembly, which will in turn have to approve it or
vote no confidence within five days. This means that the current
legislature will almost certainly be unable to debate the matter
before completing its four-year tenure on May 12. The pivotal post
of defense minister will thus likely remain vacant until then.
The Armenian constitution stipulates that the prime minister must step
down right after legislative elections so that the president of the
republic can pick a new prime minister backed by the new parliament
majority. Assuming that the HHK will win the polls (by whatever
means), Sarkisian will likely be re-appointed prime minister later in
May. Even before Markarian's death he was believed to be eyeing the
job and planning to use it as a launch pad for the presidency. Few
in Armenia doubt that Kocharian will not or cannot try to thwart his
presidential bid.
What Kocharian is trying to do instead is to retain a key role
in government affairs after the end of his 10-year presidency. The
Armenian press has for months speculated that he has set his sights on
the post of prime minister. Whatever his real intentions, Kocharian
is clearly trying to secure his political future through his thinly
veiled sponsorship of the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK) of Gagik
Tsarukian, a millionaire businessman close to the president.
The BHK has emerged in recent months as another election frontrunner,
owing to what critics regard as massive vote buying and Tsarukian's
populist appeal.
The key question now is whether Sarkisian is willing to share power
with Kocharian and be a less powerful president than the latter has
been. The two men are natives of Karabakh who governed the disputed
territory during its secessionist war with Azerbaijan and ended up in
top government positions in Yerevan as a result. Working in tandem,
they rose to power in 1998 and have since jointly warded off numerous
challenges to their rule. "Believe us, the two will sort out their
differences and cut a deal at the last moment," a commentator for
the pro-opposition newspaper Chorrord Ishkhanutyun exhorted readers
on April 3.
But other analysts and politicians see potential for a serious
conflict between Sarkisian and Kocharian, pointing to an increasingly
obvious rivalry between the HHK and the BHK. The two establishment
parties openly clashed in a March 25 local election in the southern
Armenian town of Armavir, whose incumbent Republican mayor narrowly
and controversially defeated a BHK candidate. The latter refused
to concede defeat, alleging widespread fraud. But he unexpectedly
withdrew his appeal against the official vote results just as a local
court looked set to invalidate them, suggesting that the party leaders
had agreed to avoid a further confrontation -- for now.
(Statement by the Armenian president's press office, April 4; Azg,
April 4; Chorrord Ishkhanutyun, Haykakan Zhamanak, April 3)
By Emil Danielyan
Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
April 5 2007
Armenian President Robert Kocharian Armenian President Robert Kocharian
has appointed his longtime influential associate, Defense Minister
Serge Sarkisian, as prime minister, formalizing the latter's status
as Armenia's second-most powerful leader. The appointment, officially
announced on April 4, has been widely anticipated ever since the sudden
death on March 25 of the previous prime minister, Andranik Markarian,
which had heightened political uncertainty in the country ahead of
the upcoming parliamentary elections. Its impact on the outcome of the
elections, crucial for Kocharian's and Sarkisian's political future,
is unlikely to be significant though.
Sarkisian, 52, had already been expected to occupy the post of prime
minister after the May 12 vote as part of his apparent plans to become
Armenia's next president after Kocharian completes his second and final
term in office less than one year from now. Markarian's death from
a heart attack simply hastened the implementation of that putative
scenario. It also allowed Sarkisian to complete his smooth takeover
of the governing Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) of which the late
prime minister was the chairman. The HHK is looking to retain the
largest faction in parliament by capitalizing on its control of many
government bodies and other "administrative resources" that remain
key to winning Armenian elections.
Sarkisian always wielded far more power than Markarian, who had little
say on defense, foreign policy, law enforcement, tax collection, and
other key policy areas. The post of defense minister, which Sarkisian
has held for the past seven years, has enabled him to control some
lucrative sectors of the Armenian economy through loyal businessmen
without bearing responsibility for the government's economic policy. He
will now have to deal with socioeconomic issues and be responsible
for the government's failure to address them.
Whether or not that will reflect positively on the HHK's electoral
chances remains to be seen. As the Yerevan newspaper Azg noted, the
ruling party would gain even greater political clout but at the same
time run the risk of losing popular support because many Armenians
dislike Sarkisian.
Kocharian and leaders of his loyal parliament majority essentially
decided Sarkisian's appointment the day after Markarian's death. They
agreed that the HHK should continue to control the post. The party's
governing board unanimously nominated the defense chief for the job
on April 2.
Kocharian signed and announced a corresponding decree just before the
expiry of a constitutional deadline for replacing a prime minister
who has resigned, died, or been incapacitated. He appears to have
deliberately delayed the appointment until the last minute in order
to spare Sarkisian the need for a parliamentary approval of the new
government. Under Armenia's constitution, the new prime minister has
20 days to form his cabinet and another 20 days to submit its program
to the National Assembly, which will in turn have to approve it or
vote no confidence within five days. This means that the current
legislature will almost certainly be unable to debate the matter
before completing its four-year tenure on May 12. The pivotal post
of defense minister will thus likely remain vacant until then.
The Armenian constitution stipulates that the prime minister must step
down right after legislative elections so that the president of the
republic can pick a new prime minister backed by the new parliament
majority. Assuming that the HHK will win the polls (by whatever
means), Sarkisian will likely be re-appointed prime minister later in
May. Even before Markarian's death he was believed to be eyeing the
job and planning to use it as a launch pad for the presidency. Few
in Armenia doubt that Kocharian will not or cannot try to thwart his
presidential bid.
What Kocharian is trying to do instead is to retain a key role
in government affairs after the end of his 10-year presidency. The
Armenian press has for months speculated that he has set his sights on
the post of prime minister. Whatever his real intentions, Kocharian
is clearly trying to secure his political future through his thinly
veiled sponsorship of the Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK) of Gagik
Tsarukian, a millionaire businessman close to the president.
The BHK has emerged in recent months as another election frontrunner,
owing to what critics regard as massive vote buying and Tsarukian's
populist appeal.
The key question now is whether Sarkisian is willing to share power
with Kocharian and be a less powerful president than the latter has
been. The two men are natives of Karabakh who governed the disputed
territory during its secessionist war with Azerbaijan and ended up in
top government positions in Yerevan as a result. Working in tandem,
they rose to power in 1998 and have since jointly warded off numerous
challenges to their rule. "Believe us, the two will sort out their
differences and cut a deal at the last moment," a commentator for
the pro-opposition newspaper Chorrord Ishkhanutyun exhorted readers
on April 3.
But other analysts and politicians see potential for a serious
conflict between Sarkisian and Kocharian, pointing to an increasingly
obvious rivalry between the HHK and the BHK. The two establishment
parties openly clashed in a March 25 local election in the southern
Armenian town of Armavir, whose incumbent Republican mayor narrowly
and controversially defeated a BHK candidate. The latter refused
to concede defeat, alleging widespread fraud. But he unexpectedly
withdrew his appeal against the official vote results just as a local
court looked set to invalidate them, suggesting that the party leaders
had agreed to avoid a further confrontation -- for now.
(Statement by the Armenian president's press office, April 4; Azg,
April 4; Chorrord Ishkhanutyun, Haykakan Zhamanak, April 3)