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THE LIMITED AMERICAN FOCUS
David Dumke, Arab News
Arab News, Saudi Arabia
April 26 2007
THE POLITICAL focus in the United States today revolves around
two topics - the 2008 presidential campaign and Iraq. Yet with
the election still 18 months away and the solution to the Iraqi
imbroglio far from clear, there remain at least ten other issues -
mostly involving foreign policy - in which US policy appears frozen
or reactive which could greatly alter both US policy and the broader
geopolitical climate.
Of course, no issue looms larger than Iraq. Even proponents of
President Bush's "surge option" - including Defense Secretary Robert
Gates - concede that the plan has thus far had limited success.
Critics are less polite, particularly after the recent bombing of the
Iraqi parliament building. This week Congress is poised to approve
legislation providing additional funds for the war, but would require
Baghdad to meet benchmarks lest US troops withdraw. Bush will veto
the legislation, and Congress ultimately will provide him the funding
he needs to perpetuate the status quo. But Bush's victory will be
of the pyrrhic variety - further weakening his public standing and
simultaneously damaging his party's prospects in the 2008 elections.
Iraq is only the tip of the iceberg. Bush and his Republican allies
continue to be dogged by ethics inquiries which limit the White
House's ability to conduct foreign and domestic policy. Last week two
Republican members of Congress were raided by the FBI. World Bank
President Paul Wolfowitz and Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez are
being pressured to resign for alleged misuse of power. This week a
special investigator began looking at possible legal violations by
Bush appointees at the General Accounting Office. Meanwhile, former
White House insider Scooter Libby awaits sentencing for perjury.
In the Middle East, problems abound. The Bush administration's
support for regional democracy has placed Egypt under the Washington
microscope. Congress will hold a heated debated over whether to
continue to support the $2 billion annual assistance package to
Cairo. Critics believe Cairo has been unwilling to promote meaningful
reform, and has further clamped down on domestic opponents of both
the secular and Islamic variety. More recently, liberal proponents
of democracy, discounting the example of Hamas, have begun pressing
Egypt to legalize the Muslim Brotherhood - despite the party's
alleged anti-Americanism and opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace
process. With Israel altering its own assistance package and distancing
itself from the Camp David formula, Egypt can no longer rely on the
support of Jewish legislators - who long backed aid in exchange for
peace with Israel.
The US-Turkish relationship, strong since 1948, is under considerable
strain. Recently the Turkish military announced it is considering
invading Kurdish-occupied northern Iraq, a move which would further
destabilize the country and trigger American condemnation. Turkey,
which is in the process of recalibrating its foreign policy, feels
Washington has ignored its interests in Iraq; Turks see the Kurds
as a grave threat. Congress is also expected to pass a resolution
declaring the Ottoman-era atrocities against Armenians as "genocide."
Ankara has threatened punitive measures should the bill pass, which
could include kicking the US military out of the country.
Despite months of stalemate, the precarious standoff in Lebanon seems
no closer to a peaceful resolution. Lebanese factions have, in fact,
hardened their positions in support of or opposition to a UN tribunal
over the Rafik Hariri assassination. But there is much more at stake
than the inquiry. The Lebanese impasse involves the composition of
the sectarian-based government, Syria, and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Despite this, there has been little public effort put forth by the
White House to broker a deal which satisfies all parties, or lures
Syria into peace talks with Israel.
The Bush administration seems unable to decide its own policy toward
Iran. While Vice President Che ney and the remaining neo-conservatives
continue to rattle sabers, Secretary of State Rice is trying to
engage Tehran during regional conferences on Iraq. Rice has stated
that should Iran offer constructive ideas, the US is willing to talk
about "anything."
In Africa, President Bush supports imposing new sanctions on Sudan over
the crisis in Darfur. But despite the increased pressure on Khartoum -
which has come in vogue with the assistance of Hollywood celebrities
- the US continues to send a mixed message. Bush's rhetorical attack
comes at the same time US intelligence agencies, principally the CIA,
have increased cooperation with the Bashir government, seen as a key
ally in the war on terror.
No one has proffered any credible solution to morass in the Horn
of Africa. Ethiopia's occupation of Somalia was seen as the least
bad option available. But despite US support for the invasion,
Ethiopia seems no more likely to stabilize Mogadishu than the UN's
attempts in the 1990s, which resulted in an embarrassing US retreat
and sucked Somalia's neighbors into the conflict. Elsewhere, the coup
of bringing Tripoli back into the diplomatic fold appears in jeopardy
in Washington due to a combination of unresolved legal issues and the
Libyan president's erratic behavior. The image of Nigeria, once seen
as an emerging democracy in Africa's most populace nation, has been
sullied over its recent election.
Finally, the Bush administration's trade promotion agenda is in
peril. Not only is the White House facing opposition from congressional
Democrats, but risks losing diplomatic face after brokering a free
trade agreement with South Korea which Congress may reject.
Despite the American public's focus, there is much more going on in
the world than the upcoming presidential election and Iraq. Failing
to address these ten issues, for example, could gravely damage US
interests and further diminish its global influence.
- David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group.
David Dumke, Arab News
Arab News, Saudi Arabia
April 26 2007
THE POLITICAL focus in the United States today revolves around
two topics - the 2008 presidential campaign and Iraq. Yet with
the election still 18 months away and the solution to the Iraqi
imbroglio far from clear, there remain at least ten other issues -
mostly involving foreign policy - in which US policy appears frozen
or reactive which could greatly alter both US policy and the broader
geopolitical climate.
Of course, no issue looms larger than Iraq. Even proponents of
President Bush's "surge option" - including Defense Secretary Robert
Gates - concede that the plan has thus far had limited success.
Critics are less polite, particularly after the recent bombing of the
Iraqi parliament building. This week Congress is poised to approve
legislation providing additional funds for the war, but would require
Baghdad to meet benchmarks lest US troops withdraw. Bush will veto
the legislation, and Congress ultimately will provide him the funding
he needs to perpetuate the status quo. But Bush's victory will be
of the pyrrhic variety - further weakening his public standing and
simultaneously damaging his party's prospects in the 2008 elections.
Iraq is only the tip of the iceberg. Bush and his Republican allies
continue to be dogged by ethics inquiries which limit the White
House's ability to conduct foreign and domestic policy. Last week two
Republican members of Congress were raided by the FBI. World Bank
President Paul Wolfowitz and Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez are
being pressured to resign for alleged misuse of power. This week a
special investigator began looking at possible legal violations by
Bush appointees at the General Accounting Office. Meanwhile, former
White House insider Scooter Libby awaits sentencing for perjury.
In the Middle East, problems abound. The Bush administration's
support for regional democracy has placed Egypt under the Washington
microscope. Congress will hold a heated debated over whether to
continue to support the $2 billion annual assistance package to
Cairo. Critics believe Cairo has been unwilling to promote meaningful
reform, and has further clamped down on domestic opponents of both
the secular and Islamic variety. More recently, liberal proponents
of democracy, discounting the example of Hamas, have begun pressing
Egypt to legalize the Muslim Brotherhood - despite the party's
alleged anti-Americanism and opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace
process. With Israel altering its own assistance package and distancing
itself from the Camp David formula, Egypt can no longer rely on the
support of Jewish legislators - who long backed aid in exchange for
peace with Israel.
The US-Turkish relationship, strong since 1948, is under considerable
strain. Recently the Turkish military announced it is considering
invading Kurdish-occupied northern Iraq, a move which would further
destabilize the country and trigger American condemnation. Turkey,
which is in the process of recalibrating its foreign policy, feels
Washington has ignored its interests in Iraq; Turks see the Kurds
as a grave threat. Congress is also expected to pass a resolution
declaring the Ottoman-era atrocities against Armenians as "genocide."
Ankara has threatened punitive measures should the bill pass, which
could include kicking the US military out of the country.
Despite months of stalemate, the precarious standoff in Lebanon seems
no closer to a peaceful resolution. Lebanese factions have, in fact,
hardened their positions in support of or opposition to a UN tribunal
over the Rafik Hariri assassination. But there is much more at stake
than the inquiry. The Lebanese impasse involves the composition of
the sectarian-based government, Syria, and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Despite this, there has been little public effort put forth by the
White House to broker a deal which satisfies all parties, or lures
Syria into peace talks with Israel.
The Bush administration seems unable to decide its own policy toward
Iran. While Vice President Che ney and the remaining neo-conservatives
continue to rattle sabers, Secretary of State Rice is trying to
engage Tehran during regional conferences on Iraq. Rice has stated
that should Iran offer constructive ideas, the US is willing to talk
about "anything."
In Africa, President Bush supports imposing new sanctions on Sudan over
the crisis in Darfur. But despite the increased pressure on Khartoum -
which has come in vogue with the assistance of Hollywood celebrities
- the US continues to send a mixed message. Bush's rhetorical attack
comes at the same time US intelligence agencies, principally the CIA,
have increased cooperation with the Bashir government, seen as a key
ally in the war on terror.
No one has proffered any credible solution to morass in the Horn
of Africa. Ethiopia's occupation of Somalia was seen as the least
bad option available. But despite US support for the invasion,
Ethiopia seems no more likely to stabilize Mogadishu than the UN's
attempts in the 1990s, which resulted in an embarrassing US retreat
and sucked Somalia's neighbors into the conflict. Elsewhere, the coup
of bringing Tripoli back into the diplomatic fold appears in jeopardy
in Washington due to a combination of unresolved legal issues and the
Libyan president's erratic behavior. The image of Nigeria, once seen
as an emerging democracy in Africa's most populace nation, has been
sullied over its recent election.
Finally, the Bush administration's trade promotion agenda is in
peril. Not only is the White House facing opposition from congressional
Democrats, but risks losing diplomatic face after brokering a free
trade agreement with South Korea which Congress may reject.
Despite the American public's focus, there is much more going on in
the world than the upcoming presidential election and Iraq. Failing
to address these ten issues, for example, could gravely damage US
interests and further diminish its global influence.
- David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group.