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SERGE SARSGYAN - THE SOLE TOP-RANKED FIGURE IN PUBLIC OPINION POLLS
Lilit Poghosyan
Hayots Ashkharh, Armenia
Dec 19 2007
Yesterday "Hayatsk" club invited AHARON ADIBEKYAN, Head of "Sociometer"
independent center, to introduce the starting electoral resources
of the participants of the presidential marathon and their potential
chances of winning the votes of the electors.
The speaker was not inclined to touch upon any particular topic;
however, giving way to the persistent questions of the journalists,
he revealed certain data. 26 per cent of the 2220 citizens polled in
October refused to respond to the questions, and only 1650 people
among them participated in the poll. At best, 60-67 per of these
people will participate in the elections. 61.5 per cent of the
respondents are interested in the political processes; they follow
the main developments and are well-informed. 33 per cent "are not
yet interested", while the remaining 5 per cent are interested "to
a certain extent".
Furthermore, the sole and undisputed top-ranked figure is SERGE
SARGSYAN whose activities in the post of Prime Minister were positively
estimated by 60 per cent of the respondents. 30 per cent have said
that the Prime Minister could have worked better, and around 10 per
cent have mentioned that he worked worse than his predecessors.
As shown by comparative analyses, Serge Sargsyan's rating has
essentially increased in comparison with the beginning of the year.
As of January 2007, only 7.7 per cent of the respondents expressed
willingness to elect Serge Sargsyan. This number increased to 27.2
per cent in October. In January, 25 per cent of the respondents would
not, under any circumstances, vote in favor of the Prime Minister;
their number decreased to 9.4 per cent in October. Moreover, while
in January there were 37 per cent of respondents believing that S.
Sargsyan would win in the presidential elections, there are currently
46 per cent of respondents confident of the Prime Minster's success.
The positive dynamics is obvious, and this, in the estimation of the
sociologist, creates a positive background for the RPA candidate's
goal-oriented campaign.
RAFFI HOVHANNISYAN would be the second candidate after S. Sargsyan,
with a great disparity of votes. However, he has appeared out of the
game, and after his crucial defeat in constituency No. 15, his rating
twice decreased. While 10.5 per cent of the voters were willing to vote
for him in January, their number decreased to 5.5 per cent in October.
As a result, ARTHUR BAGHDASARYAN ranks as the second candidate.
9.4 per cent of voters were willing to vote for him in January;
their number was reduced to 4,8 per cent in October. As to LEVON
TER-ETRSOSYAN, he has incredibly doubled his rating, having received
2.7 per cent of votes, instead of the 1.2 per cent recorded
in January. He is followed by ARTASHES GEGHAMYAN, whose rating
has sharply decreased. He enjoyed 8.2 per cent rating in January,
but after "National Unity's" failure to be elected to the National
Assembly his rating was reduced to 2 per cent. Despite this, Mr.
Geghamyan still has chances to improve his positions and get ahead
of LTP.
VAZGEN MANOUKYAN also recorded a loss of rating. In January, 3.5 per
cent of the respondents considered the NDU leader's victory probable;
their number was reduced to 1.1 per cent in January. As to TIGRAN
KARAPETYAN, 5.1 per cent of the respondents were willing to vote
for him in January; however, their number decreased to 0.3 per cent
in October.
Instead, VAHAN HOVHANNISYAN has made a progress, as his rating rose to
1.4 per cent from the zero level recorded in January. In the estimation
of A. Adibekyan, "acting as a joker", i.e. representing neither the
ruling authority nor the Opposition, or acting as a representative
of both, has not particularly helped the ARFD candidate, since the
uncertain double approaches do not seem convincing to the voter. The
people want to understand and record clearly 'who's who'. Therefore,
you have to be "either a pro-Government or a pro-Opposition figure".
By the way, Levon Ter-Petrosyan ranks as the top figure on the list
of the candidates who are strongly disapproved by the voters.
The ex-President turns out to have no chances for involving additional
electoral resources. 28.5 per cent of the respondents will not vote
for him under any circumstances. "Levon Ter-Petrosyan's main problem
is that he doesn't know who to take votes from. Some parts of the
votes are already distributed; another part of the candidates will
not run for election, whereas the others treat him with denial."
As shown by the electoral analysis, the relative 1.5 per cent "leap"
of LTP's electorate was partly due to the offended mass of people
(those who held offices under the rule of the Armenian pan-National
Movement and are currently average officials, dissatisfied with their
status), and partially due to individual entrepreneurs who are scared
by the fact that "the tax discipline has increased under the rule of
Serge Sargsyan. It has sharply increased.
The 2-3 per cent increase of the Budget means that the tax and customs
administration will become stricter in the near future."
In the context of R. Hovhannisyan's relatively high rating, it is
important to find out "Where the votes of 'Heritage' will go. As
shown by the image analysis, his electorate, in terms of its nature,
educational and age qualification, is closer to the electorate
of Arthur Baghdasryan and little bit - to the electorate of Vahan
Hovhannisyan." That's to say, if R. Hovhannisyan supports this or that
candidate, his proponents are not sure to orient themselves towards
that particular pretender. The Sociologist believes that at best 1/3
of "Heritage" party's electorate will cast their vote in favor of the
candidate preferred by R. Hovhannisyan. Moreover, the majority will
support the candidate representing "Rule of Law" and Dashnaktsutyun
parties, and another part will support Artashes Geghamyan.
In short, "together with the votes of Raffi Hovhannisyan, the votes of
the remaining 20 per cent of people who have not oriented themselves
constitute the bone of contention. And the campaign aims to attract
that 25 per cent of voters.
As to the second stage, this issue remains quite uncertain. "I
wouldn't say the second stage is quite questionable; however, there
are still certain discontents. Of the 74 per cent of the people we
polled, more than 50 per cent are ready to vote in favor of Serge
Sargsyan. However, thousands of new players, i.e. heads of local
headquarters, precinct activists, commission members etc. join the
game during the campaign. Each of them makes his positive or negative
investment in the campaign of the given candidate.
Should the RPA manage to hold a normal, i.e. moderated and accurately
calculated campaign, the elections will be held in a single stage. If
they are weakened or, if they use ignorant methods, the elections
will be held in two stages. Although single-stage elections are more
probable, the second stage cannot be ruled out either, considering
the present-day situation.
Lilit Poghosyan
Hayots Ashkharh, Armenia
Dec 19 2007
Yesterday "Hayatsk" club invited AHARON ADIBEKYAN, Head of "Sociometer"
independent center, to introduce the starting electoral resources
of the participants of the presidential marathon and their potential
chances of winning the votes of the electors.
The speaker was not inclined to touch upon any particular topic;
however, giving way to the persistent questions of the journalists,
he revealed certain data. 26 per cent of the 2220 citizens polled in
October refused to respond to the questions, and only 1650 people
among them participated in the poll. At best, 60-67 per of these
people will participate in the elections. 61.5 per cent of the
respondents are interested in the political processes; they follow
the main developments and are well-informed. 33 per cent "are not
yet interested", while the remaining 5 per cent are interested "to
a certain extent".
Furthermore, the sole and undisputed top-ranked figure is SERGE
SARGSYAN whose activities in the post of Prime Minister were positively
estimated by 60 per cent of the respondents. 30 per cent have said
that the Prime Minister could have worked better, and around 10 per
cent have mentioned that he worked worse than his predecessors.
As shown by comparative analyses, Serge Sargsyan's rating has
essentially increased in comparison with the beginning of the year.
As of January 2007, only 7.7 per cent of the respondents expressed
willingness to elect Serge Sargsyan. This number increased to 27.2
per cent in October. In January, 25 per cent of the respondents would
not, under any circumstances, vote in favor of the Prime Minister;
their number decreased to 9.4 per cent in October. Moreover, while
in January there were 37 per cent of respondents believing that S.
Sargsyan would win in the presidential elections, there are currently
46 per cent of respondents confident of the Prime Minster's success.
The positive dynamics is obvious, and this, in the estimation of the
sociologist, creates a positive background for the RPA candidate's
goal-oriented campaign.
RAFFI HOVHANNISYAN would be the second candidate after S. Sargsyan,
with a great disparity of votes. However, he has appeared out of the
game, and after his crucial defeat in constituency No. 15, his rating
twice decreased. While 10.5 per cent of the voters were willing to vote
for him in January, their number decreased to 5.5 per cent in October.
As a result, ARTHUR BAGHDASARYAN ranks as the second candidate.
9.4 per cent of voters were willing to vote for him in January;
their number was reduced to 4,8 per cent in October. As to LEVON
TER-ETRSOSYAN, he has incredibly doubled his rating, having received
2.7 per cent of votes, instead of the 1.2 per cent recorded
in January. He is followed by ARTASHES GEGHAMYAN, whose rating
has sharply decreased. He enjoyed 8.2 per cent rating in January,
but after "National Unity's" failure to be elected to the National
Assembly his rating was reduced to 2 per cent. Despite this, Mr.
Geghamyan still has chances to improve his positions and get ahead
of LTP.
VAZGEN MANOUKYAN also recorded a loss of rating. In January, 3.5 per
cent of the respondents considered the NDU leader's victory probable;
their number was reduced to 1.1 per cent in January. As to TIGRAN
KARAPETYAN, 5.1 per cent of the respondents were willing to vote
for him in January; however, their number decreased to 0.3 per cent
in October.
Instead, VAHAN HOVHANNISYAN has made a progress, as his rating rose to
1.4 per cent from the zero level recorded in January. In the estimation
of A. Adibekyan, "acting as a joker", i.e. representing neither the
ruling authority nor the Opposition, or acting as a representative
of both, has not particularly helped the ARFD candidate, since the
uncertain double approaches do not seem convincing to the voter. The
people want to understand and record clearly 'who's who'. Therefore,
you have to be "either a pro-Government or a pro-Opposition figure".
By the way, Levon Ter-Petrosyan ranks as the top figure on the list
of the candidates who are strongly disapproved by the voters.
The ex-President turns out to have no chances for involving additional
electoral resources. 28.5 per cent of the respondents will not vote
for him under any circumstances. "Levon Ter-Petrosyan's main problem
is that he doesn't know who to take votes from. Some parts of the
votes are already distributed; another part of the candidates will
not run for election, whereas the others treat him with denial."
As shown by the electoral analysis, the relative 1.5 per cent "leap"
of LTP's electorate was partly due to the offended mass of people
(those who held offices under the rule of the Armenian pan-National
Movement and are currently average officials, dissatisfied with their
status), and partially due to individual entrepreneurs who are scared
by the fact that "the tax discipline has increased under the rule of
Serge Sargsyan. It has sharply increased.
The 2-3 per cent increase of the Budget means that the tax and customs
administration will become stricter in the near future."
In the context of R. Hovhannisyan's relatively high rating, it is
important to find out "Where the votes of 'Heritage' will go. As
shown by the image analysis, his electorate, in terms of its nature,
educational and age qualification, is closer to the electorate
of Arthur Baghdasryan and little bit - to the electorate of Vahan
Hovhannisyan." That's to say, if R. Hovhannisyan supports this or that
candidate, his proponents are not sure to orient themselves towards
that particular pretender. The Sociologist believes that at best 1/3
of "Heritage" party's electorate will cast their vote in favor of the
candidate preferred by R. Hovhannisyan. Moreover, the majority will
support the candidate representing "Rule of Law" and Dashnaktsutyun
parties, and another part will support Artashes Geghamyan.
In short, "together with the votes of Raffi Hovhannisyan, the votes of
the remaining 20 per cent of people who have not oriented themselves
constitute the bone of contention. And the campaign aims to attract
that 25 per cent of voters.
As to the second stage, this issue remains quite uncertain. "I
wouldn't say the second stage is quite questionable; however, there
are still certain discontents. Of the 74 per cent of the people we
polled, more than 50 per cent are ready to vote in favor of Serge
Sargsyan. However, thousands of new players, i.e. heads of local
headquarters, precinct activists, commission members etc. join the
game during the campaign. Each of them makes his positive or negative
investment in the campaign of the given candidate.
Should the RPA manage to hold a normal, i.e. moderated and accurately
calculated campaign, the elections will be held in a single stage. If
they are weakened or, if they use ignorant methods, the elections
will be held in two stages. Although single-stage elections are more
probable, the second stage cannot be ruled out either, considering
the present-day situation.