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Goodbye Armenia: Russia's last ally in the CIS becomes part of West

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  • Goodbye Armenia: Russia's last ally in the CIS becomes part of West

    Agency WPS
    What the Papers Say Part B (Russia)
    January 19, 2007 Friday

    GOODBYE, ARMENIA;
    Russia's last ally in the CIS becomes part of the West's geopolitical
    project

    by: Viktor Yadukha

    Russia's influence in the Caucasus is about to fall another notch;
    Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Armenia are set to sign an agreement
    on building a railroad connecting Kars, Akhalkalaki, Tbilisi, and
    Baku. The railroad will become an element of the transport corridor
    between China and Europe, bypassing Russia and reducing Russian
    influence in the region.


    Georgian Economic Development Minister Georgy Arveladze promised on
    January 18 to sign an agreement on building a railroad connecting
    Kars, Akhalkalaki, Tbilisi, and Baku. The governments of Georgia,
    Azerbaijan, and Turkey verified this agreement on January 13. Deputy
    Foreign Minister of Armenia Gegam Garibjanjan announced in Yerevan
    yesterday that Armenia is prepared to join the project and open its
    border with Turkey even though the two countries don't have
    diplomatic relations. The railroad will become an element of the
    transport corridor between China and Europe, bypassing Russia and
    reducing Russian influence in the region.

    Tbilisi is already discussing details of the future project.
    "Reconstruction of the railroad between Tbilisi and Akhalkalaki will
    hopefully begin this year," Arveladze said. "Construction of the
    extension from Akhalkalaki to the Turkish border will follow."
    Referring to the Russian transport blockade of Georgia, the minister
    said that the railroad was going to open a new route to Europe via
    Turkey for Georgia. Armenia, cut off the rest of the world by hostile
    Azerbaijan and blocked by Georgia, regards the project as vital as
    well. According to Garibjanjan, the railroad across Armenia between
    Akhalkalaki and Kars built in the Soviet era has been idle since the
    disintegration of the USSR. "Open the border, and the railroad will
    be back in business the following day," he said.

    Importance of the railroad in question is not restricted to regional
    considerations alone. It will become a part of the transport corridor
    between Europe, the Caucasus, and Asia. Initiated by the European
    Union and United States in the mid-1990s, the project also includes
    the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum, and Trans-Caspian
    pipelines. Construction of the Caucasus part of the railroad will
    begin in 2007 and take two years or so. Annual traffic volume of the
    road between Kars and Baku after that is expected to amount to almost
    20 million tons. Engineering work began in 2001. Last August, Turkish
    Minister of Transportation Binali Yuldyrym proclaimed China and
    Kazakhstan joining the project.

    Experts view the latest developments as an effect of the efforts
    undertaken by the United States determined to smooth out friction
    between countries of the Caucasus and withdraw this strategic region
    from the orbit of Russian influence. "That's what the West is really
    after when it promotes Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution, forces
    Turkey to acknowledge the genocide of the Armenians, and supports
    Tbilisi's anti-Russian policy," said Alexander Skakov, department
    director at the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies. "The railroad
    will tie Armenia into the project now, and Armenia is Moscow's only
    ally in the region."

    The US Eximbank initially volunteered as the project sponsor, but the
    Armenian lobby in Congress pulled some strings in December and
    President George W. Bush forbade the bank to participate in the
    project. (Armenia did not want the United States to finance a project
    it was not participating in.) US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
    Matthew Bryza broke Turkey and Armenia's resistance soon afterwards.
    According to our sources, the American money was transferred via
    other countries. Georgian Foreign Minister Gela Bezhuashvili
    announced on January 10 that money for the project could be raised
    outside the United States. Arveladze said yesterday that Georgia
    would borrow $300 million for the railroad from Azerbaijan.

    Moscow is not so generous in its offers to Armenia. When we asked
    some experts, they could only recall a project for a gas pipeline
    from Iran to Armenia, in the event that Georgia made gas transit via
    Russian pipelines impossible. But Gazprom interfered and eventually
    killed the project, and Yerevan has never forgotten that. "Armenia is
    putting more distance between itself and Russia," Skakov said.
    "Simple realities are driving Yerevan to start looking for its place
    in Western geopolitics."

    Source: RBC Daily, January 19, 2007, p. 2

    Translated by A. Ignatkin
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