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BAKU AND YEREVAN PROXIES FOR RUSSIA-US STRUGGLE, SAYS STRATFOR
By M. Alkhazashvili
(Translated by Diana Dundua)
The Messenger, Georgia
July 6 2007
American intelligence center Stratfor warns of a possible rekindling
of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia as Baku funnels oil
revenues into its military budget, increasing expenditures by five
times, reports the news agency Regnum. Behind the Armenian-Azeri
conflict is the struggle between the US and Russia, Stratfor says,
as the greater powers use the South Caucasus nations as proxies in
a regional power play.
According to Stratfor analysts, after the 1994 "Deal of the Century"
agreement signed between Baku and international oil companies,
Azerbaijan saw the ground shifting on the Nagarno-Karabakh question.
And following the building of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,
the country's western orientation grew in tandem with its income.
Azerbaijan is spending more and more on its army. In 2004, military
expenditures were USD 175 million. By 2008, the total will be closer
to USD 1 billion. Armenia, lacking the astronomical influx of soft
money Baku is receiving, has upped military expenditures by 20 percent,
from USD 125 million to USD 150 million.
Analysts say that Armenia, failing to benefit from energy spending
in the South Caucasus, is relying in large part on an influential
Diaspora to push for more funds from the US.
"Though Armenia's neighbors avoid this politically and economically,
they leave it a tiny chance for the trade development. Armenia has
open relationships with Tehran. In March in 2007 the natural gas
pipeline Iran-Armenia opened between these states-though the pipeline,
together with the majority of the country's infrastructure, is owned
by Russia," reads the Stratfor report.
By M. Alkhazashvili
(Translated by Diana Dundua)
The Messenger, Georgia
July 6 2007
American intelligence center Stratfor warns of a possible rekindling
of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia as Baku funnels oil
revenues into its military budget, increasing expenditures by five
times, reports the news agency Regnum. Behind the Armenian-Azeri
conflict is the struggle between the US and Russia, Stratfor says,
as the greater powers use the South Caucasus nations as proxies in
a regional power play.
According to Stratfor analysts, after the 1994 "Deal of the Century"
agreement signed between Baku and international oil companies,
Azerbaijan saw the ground shifting on the Nagarno-Karabakh question.
And following the building of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,
the country's western orientation grew in tandem with its income.
Azerbaijan is spending more and more on its army. In 2004, military
expenditures were USD 175 million. By 2008, the total will be closer
to USD 1 billion. Armenia, lacking the astronomical influx of soft
money Baku is receiving, has upped military expenditures by 20 percent,
from USD 125 million to USD 150 million.
Analysts say that Armenia, failing to benefit from energy spending
in the South Caucasus, is relying in large part on an influential
Diaspora to push for more funds from the US.
"Though Armenia's neighbors avoid this politically and economically,
they leave it a tiny chance for the trade development. Armenia has
open relationships with Tehran. In March in 2007 the natural gas
pipeline Iran-Armenia opened between these states-though the pipeline,
together with the majority of the country's infrastructure, is owned
by Russia," reads the Stratfor report.