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  • Azerbaijan Flexes Military Muscles

    AZERBAIJAN FLEXES MILITARY MUSCLES
    By Jasur Mamedov in Baku

    Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
    July 19 2007

    Calls for Baku to quit CFE treaty as it boosts defence spending.

    Calls are increasing in Azerbaijan for a review of the country's
    quotas under the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty. Otherwise,
    the voices say, Azerbaijan should withdraw from the agreement.

    The demands have become louder after Russia's recent announcement
    that it was suspending its participation in the CFE treaty, which
    sets limits on the amount of weaponry European countries can hold on
    their territories.

    They coincide with a massive increase in Azerbaijan's military
    budget which is worrying some observers, who say that it increases
    the likelihood of the resumption of war over Nagorny Karabakh, the
    territory left under Armenian control after the conflict of 1991-4.

    "NATO is worried about the mass arming in the zone of the conflict over
    Nagorny Karabakh," Robert Simmons, NATO secretary general's special
    representative for the South Caucasus and Central Asia, said after a
    visit to Azerbaijan in March. "Azerbaijan and Armenia have exceeded
    the arms limits set in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty."

    In Azerbaijan itself, the possibility of the collapse of CFE is
    being broadly welcomed. "This move is positive for Azerbaijan: since
    we intend to build up our military capacities, Russia's withdrawal
    unties our hands," said political expert Ilgar Mamedov. "Now it's
    important for our authorities not to make any concessions to those
    forces that will try to make us adhere to CFE limits."

    Many in Azerbaijan are displeased with the quotas set for Baku by the
    treaty, saying that they discriminate against the country in relation
    to its smaller neighbour and foe, Armenia.

    The soaring growth of Azerbaijan's military budget has been made
    possible by the country's huge new oil revenues. The overall 2007
    defence budget is 907 million manats (just over one billion US
    dollars). Military expenditure has increased by 27.9 per cent,
    in comparison to last year and now accounts for 16 per cent of the
    entire state budget.

    Of the sum, 796 million manats will go to the defence ministry and
    110 million manats to the recently formed defence industry ministry.

    The Doctrine military research centre in Baku says that Azerbaijan's
    military spending per capita, now 105 dollars a year, easily exceeds
    that of Armenia and Georgia, 70 and 65 dollars respectively.

    Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev said on television that his
    country's defence budget was now eight times larger than it was
    four years ago and that military expenditure was the number one
    spending priority. "This is because we live in a state of war and our
    territories are occupied," he said. "The war is not over yet. There
    is only a ceasefire being observed."

    He said Azerbaijan's military budget was now equal to the entire
    state budget of Armenia and would be further increased.

    In recent weeks - following the latest failure of the presidents of
    Armenia and Azerbaijan to make a diplomatic breakthrough in talks on
    the Karabakh dispute last month - Azerbaijan leaders have been more
    aggressive in their rhetoric and more openly talking about going back
    to war with Armenia.

    "In the military sense Azerbaijan is the strongest state in the
    region," President Aliev told Azerbaijan's Police Academy on July 2.

    "Armenia should understand that and voluntarily withdraw its forces
    from lands that do not belong to it. Then there will be no war.

    "No one wants losses but we are gathering strength and at any moment
    we are ready to carry out any operation. Azerbaijan will never consent
    to the preservation of the status quo."

    According to 2004 statistics, there are 78,000 military personnel
    and 4,000 civilians serving in Azerbaijan's armed forces.

    Azerbaijan has been buying new weapons and equipment, including 12
    long-range multiple rocket-launch systems, new artillery, anti-tank
    weapons, T-72 tanks and MiG-29 fighter aircraft.

    With regard to the breaching of the CFE treaty, Azerbaijani foreign
    ministry spokesman Khazar Ibrahim told IWPR that Armenia was at fault
    for keeping armed forces in Nagorny Karabakh.

    "On Azerbaijan's occupied territories there are armed forces that
    have transgressed both territorial and national limits, and these
    belong to Armenia," he said. "They have exceeded the national limits
    of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. As a matter of fact, Armenia has been
    able to conceal its military forces' armaments that are not allowed
    under the CFE. These include tanks, armoured machinery, artilleries
    and helicopters. This is where most attention should be directed."

    Asked about Azerbaijan's alleged violation of CFE limits, Ibrahim said
    the treaty contained provisions that allow for the liquidation of old
    weapons and the purchase of new ones. "Naturally, Azerbaijan has been
    buying new weapons to bring its military forces in line with modern
    standards," he said. "Not only Azerbaijan, but many other countries
    may exceed their limits while replacing their old weapons with new
    ones. One should not dramatize this issue."

    Concerns have also been raised both in NATO - which has given
    Azerbaijan an Individual Partner Action Plan to fulfil that insists
    on a more transparent defence ministry - and inside the country that
    the military budget is opaque and it is not clear what the vast influx
    of new money is being spent on.

    Military expert and colonel in the army reserve Ildyr Mamedov said
    that Azerbaijan's military forces were bloated and that too much was
    being spent on weaponry rather than the social needs of soldiers. He
    said the budget was creating conditions for corruption.

    Yashar Jafarli, who heads the public organisation Officers in Reserve,
    noted that in most countries there was a 50-50 split between spending
    on weaponry and on salaries and social needs, but that in Azerbaijan
    the proportion was 60-40 in favour of weapons.

    Uzeir Jafarov, a lieutenant-colonel in the army reserve, also voiced
    concerns that living conditions of soldiers were not improving.

    An Azerbaijani lieutenant earns 250-300 dollars a month, while a
    major takes home over twice that amount. But ordinary soldiers and
    sergeants earn only between five and fifteen dollars a month.

    Jafarov said that the defence minister still owed retired military
    personnel around 100 million dollars, or between 300 and 700 dollars
    a person.

    "Just imagine, the defence ministry is not honouring more than 200
    court decisions from the Sabail district [of Baku] alone," said
    Jafarov. "The supposed explanation for this is that the finance
    minister is not giving the defence ministry the money to make these
    compensation payments.

    "Moreover, in January last year the president signed a decree on
    increasing food allowances for the military but it still has not been
    implemented. Every office gets just 30 dollars a day to feed himself.

    So what is the point of increasing the military budget?"

    Jasur Mamedov is editor of the Armeiskoe Zerkalo newspaper in Baku.
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