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NAGORNO KARABAGH PROBLEM IS SETTLED
Interview Conducted By Karine Mangassarian
Yerkir.am
June 01, 2007
Director of Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation, political
analyst Gagik Harutyunian believes it is not possible to pursue the
principles of territorial integrity and national self determination
in the Karabagh settlement process.
Harutyunian believes that the existing civilizational and geo-political
realities should be placed at the basis of the conflict settlement. We
started our interview with Gagik Harutyunian asking him whether he
shares the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' view that it would be possible
to come up with a document stating the mutually acceptable principles
of conflict settlement by the end of 2007.
G.H.: The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs keep visiting the region for a
long time and sometimes they make contradictory statements. I think
that the Karabagh problem is already settled based on the geopolitical
logic. There was the Autonomour Republic of Nagorno Karabagh that
was turned in the Republic of Nagorno Karabagh as a result of some
processes we know about. It should be noted in this respect that the
sometimes contradictory principles of national self determination
and territorial integrity are considered to be outdated and
non-constructive in the modern literature on political science. Why?
After the collapse of the Soviet Union a new geo-political situation
emerged in the world. 15 independent states were formed on the
territory of the former USSR. 6 republic emerged after the collapse
of Yugoslavia. Czechoslovakia was divided. Eritrea seceded from
Ethiopia. The Kosovo case is actively discussed today. The fact is
that the strong geo-political shocks resulted in emergence of new
post-Cold-War realities some of which were accepted in international
relations. Some others have not found their final formulations yet.
Today the international expert community believes that more realistic
principles are needed today to solve the existing problems. For
instance, the civilizational factor is mentioned meaning that it is
important that the civilizational belonging of this or that nation
should be taken into consideration. In other words, it is time to put
aside the old political terminology and use categories that would
be more relevant to the reality. There is a very important issue
to be considered in this context - the liberated territories. It is
obvious that these territories are a strategic security guarantee not
only for the Nagorno Karabagh Republic but also for Armenia. It is
obvious that these territories can be returned only if commensurate
security guarantees are ensured. It is hard to say to what extent
Baku is ready for this.
Q: Today Baku keeps saying that they are ready to solve the conflict
with military means and that time works in Baku's favor. Is it so?
A: We should not overlook Azerbaijan's economic growth that derives
from oil. Moreover, the Azeri officials state that they are using
the oil dollars to boost their military budget promising to increase
it to 1 billion dollars. At the same time, we should not overlook
another important thing. Armenia's human development and economic
freedom rating calculated by several very authoritative international
organizations is significantly higher than that of Azerbaijan and
other countries in the region. In other words, Armenia as a state
is the leading state in the region. The high rating of the Armenian
army contributes to this as well. So Baku's militaristic statements
might have sad consequences for Azerbaijan.
They say if you want peace be ready for a war and never say never. At
the same time, I think military actions are very unlikely. Today it is
almost impossible for any state to solve the issue of war and peace by
itself. The geo-economic interests of USA, Great Britain and several
other European countries are concentrated in Azerbaijan. I think these
countries should try to minimize the possibility for military actions.
Azerbaijan's "big brother", Turkey, is another issue. Turkey has been
providing Azerbaijan with military aid since the very first days of
the war in Karabagh. However, Turkey has a number of domestic and
foreign policy problems.
Besides, it is under pressure by the international community for
recognition of the Armenian Genocide. In other words, encouraging
Azerbaijan to start a new war is not a very good idea for Turkey. The
important role of Russia in the region should also be stressed in this
context. We should remember the statement made by the secretary general
of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization Nikolay Bordyuzha
who said that if Armenia's borders are violated, commensurate actions
will be taken in response.
Q: Do you agree with the approach of the Nagorno Karabagh leadership
that a fair solution of the Karabagh conflict is only possible if
Nagorno Karabagh participates in the negotiation process?
A: I think it will have a positive effect and will reinforce the
existing reality: Nagorno Karabagh Republic in fact is participating
in the negotiations. The OSCE representatives are visiting Karabagh
and having meetings there.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Interview Conducted By Karine Mangassarian
Yerkir.am
June 01, 2007
Director of Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation, political
analyst Gagik Harutyunian believes it is not possible to pursue the
principles of territorial integrity and national self determination
in the Karabagh settlement process.
Harutyunian believes that the existing civilizational and geo-political
realities should be placed at the basis of the conflict settlement. We
started our interview with Gagik Harutyunian asking him whether he
shares the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs' view that it would be possible
to come up with a document stating the mutually acceptable principles
of conflict settlement by the end of 2007.
G.H.: The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs keep visiting the region for a
long time and sometimes they make contradictory statements. I think
that the Karabagh problem is already settled based on the geopolitical
logic. There was the Autonomour Republic of Nagorno Karabagh that
was turned in the Republic of Nagorno Karabagh as a result of some
processes we know about. It should be noted in this respect that the
sometimes contradictory principles of national self determination
and territorial integrity are considered to be outdated and
non-constructive in the modern literature on political science. Why?
After the collapse of the Soviet Union a new geo-political situation
emerged in the world. 15 independent states were formed on the
territory of the former USSR. 6 republic emerged after the collapse
of Yugoslavia. Czechoslovakia was divided. Eritrea seceded from
Ethiopia. The Kosovo case is actively discussed today. The fact is
that the strong geo-political shocks resulted in emergence of new
post-Cold-War realities some of which were accepted in international
relations. Some others have not found their final formulations yet.
Today the international expert community believes that more realistic
principles are needed today to solve the existing problems. For
instance, the civilizational factor is mentioned meaning that it is
important that the civilizational belonging of this or that nation
should be taken into consideration. In other words, it is time to put
aside the old political terminology and use categories that would
be more relevant to the reality. There is a very important issue
to be considered in this context - the liberated territories. It is
obvious that these territories are a strategic security guarantee not
only for the Nagorno Karabagh Republic but also for Armenia. It is
obvious that these territories can be returned only if commensurate
security guarantees are ensured. It is hard to say to what extent
Baku is ready for this.
Q: Today Baku keeps saying that they are ready to solve the conflict
with military means and that time works in Baku's favor. Is it so?
A: We should not overlook Azerbaijan's economic growth that derives
from oil. Moreover, the Azeri officials state that they are using
the oil dollars to boost their military budget promising to increase
it to 1 billion dollars. At the same time, we should not overlook
another important thing. Armenia's human development and economic
freedom rating calculated by several very authoritative international
organizations is significantly higher than that of Azerbaijan and
other countries in the region. In other words, Armenia as a state
is the leading state in the region. The high rating of the Armenian
army contributes to this as well. So Baku's militaristic statements
might have sad consequences for Azerbaijan.
They say if you want peace be ready for a war and never say never. At
the same time, I think military actions are very unlikely. Today it is
almost impossible for any state to solve the issue of war and peace by
itself. The geo-economic interests of USA, Great Britain and several
other European countries are concentrated in Azerbaijan. I think these
countries should try to minimize the possibility for military actions.
Azerbaijan's "big brother", Turkey, is another issue. Turkey has been
providing Azerbaijan with military aid since the very first days of
the war in Karabagh. However, Turkey has a number of domestic and
foreign policy problems.
Besides, it is under pressure by the international community for
recognition of the Armenian Genocide. In other words, encouraging
Azerbaijan to start a new war is not a very good idea for Turkey. The
important role of Russia in the region should also be stressed in this
context. We should remember the statement made by the secretary general
of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization Nikolay Bordyuzha
who said that if Armenia's borders are violated, commensurate actions
will be taken in response.
Q: Do you agree with the approach of the Nagorno Karabagh leadership
that a fair solution of the Karabagh conflict is only possible if
Nagorno Karabagh participates in the negotiation process?
A: I think it will have a positive effect and will reinforce the
existing reality: Nagorno Karabagh Republic in fact is participating
in the negotiations. The OSCE representatives are visiting Karabagh
and having meetings there.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress