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GEOPOLITICAL DIARY: THE RUSSIAN-WESTERN TUG-OF-WAR
Stratfor
June 18 2007
While the issue of Kosovo's independence is hovering over the heads
of the international community, four other secessionist regions are
uniting to take their own stand on settling their positions. The
foreign ministers of the Commonwealth for Democracy and Rights
of Nations -- which is made up of the unrecognized governments
of Transdniestria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia -- met Sunday to
sign their usual declaration to the United Nations. Though this
document is regularly presented and usually far from noteworthy,
things are different this time around. These regions, along with
newcomer Nagorno-Karabakh, are uniting just as Russia is re-emerging
as a power and the Kosovo issue is causing the West angst. And the
West's headache over breakaway states is only about to get bigger.
The states' recent declaration was unique in that it united them on
principles of a peaceful and just settlement of conflicts in their
territories. The document explicitly rules out the use of any form of
pressure against them, including military, information, economic and
diplomatic. Moreover, the regions noted that they have been wrestling
for independence much longer than has Kosovo.
This collective call for independence grew much louder after Montenegro
gained independence in May 2006. Though there are countless regions
like these throughout the former Soviet Union and Europe -- such as
Northern Ireland, Basqueland, Transylvania and Chechnya -- these four
are particularly worrisome because they are located within countries
that are strategic to both the West and Russia. Each already has
claimed independence and enjoyed de facto independence for more than
a decade, but none has been successful in gaining the support of
international forces for independence like Montenegro.
Georgia has two secessionist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
that back up to the Russian border. Georgia has been struggling
against the Russian backlash since the 2004 Rose Revolution that gave
it pro-Western status; since then Georgia has been pushing to join
Western institutions such as NATO, but not without Russian criticism.
Moldova borders recent EU member Romania and also has been fighting
to become an EU member. But its membership into either the European
Union or NATO has been prevented because of its small enclave of
Transdniestria -- the population of which is majority Russian and
Ukrainian.
Azerbaijan has been pushed into being more pro-West since the opening
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (BTC), which Western companies
developed to feed oil to Europe. The pipeline has afforded Azerbaijan
a huge windfall of cash. Though the West expects its Nagorno-Karabakh
region to gain independence along the Kosovo principle, the issue
has not been pressed since the BTC holds more importance than does
the region seceding.
Each of these regions has been unusually quiet during the wait for a
Kosovo resolution, and is keeping on eye on how the West pushes for
Kosovar independence. However, the fight for Kosovo's independence has
taken a turn from what many thought was inevitable at the beginning
of the year. The Kosovo decision has moved from being an issue about
Kosovar Albanians' independence from Serbia into a power struggle
between Russia and the West. Now these four regions in the former
Soviet Union also are falling into the struggle between the West
and Russia.
It is no secret that the Commonwealth for Democracy and Rights of
Nations is a Russian-backed and -funded organization. For years it
has been used to cause trouble in Moldova and Georgia. It is typical
for Russia to manipulate Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria
when it wants to strike out against Georgia, Moldova and the West.
But the interesting twist this year was the addition of
Nagorno-Karabakh, since Russia does not usually meddle in this region
as much as in the others. Moreover, the United States is prevalent in
the region both politically and financially -- so far it has managed
to keep Nagorno-Karabakh from joining the other "frozen conflicts"
in the Russian initiative. Either Nagorno-Karabakh has realized
that the United States is not moving to gain its independence or
that Russia is finally trying to get more involved in the region,
pulling it into its secessionist region movement.
Either way, the shift is a clear sign that Russia is gaining just
another region to manipulate while it strikes back at the West's
infiltration into its former Soviet Union states. The West is not
ready for any more crises outside of Kosovo. However, if the United
States moves to give Kosovo its independence without Russia on board,
Russia has these other regions ready to cause a string of crises for
which the West is not prepared, and in states that Washington has
fought so hard in the past decade to keep on its side.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Stratfor
June 18 2007
While the issue of Kosovo's independence is hovering over the heads
of the international community, four other secessionist regions are
uniting to take their own stand on settling their positions. The
foreign ministers of the Commonwealth for Democracy and Rights
of Nations -- which is made up of the unrecognized governments
of Transdniestria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia -- met Sunday to
sign their usual declaration to the United Nations. Though this
document is regularly presented and usually far from noteworthy,
things are different this time around. These regions, along with
newcomer Nagorno-Karabakh, are uniting just as Russia is re-emerging
as a power and the Kosovo issue is causing the West angst. And the
West's headache over breakaway states is only about to get bigger.
The states' recent declaration was unique in that it united them on
principles of a peaceful and just settlement of conflicts in their
territories. The document explicitly rules out the use of any form of
pressure against them, including military, information, economic and
diplomatic. Moreover, the regions noted that they have been wrestling
for independence much longer than has Kosovo.
This collective call for independence grew much louder after Montenegro
gained independence in May 2006. Though there are countless regions
like these throughout the former Soviet Union and Europe -- such as
Northern Ireland, Basqueland, Transylvania and Chechnya -- these four
are particularly worrisome because they are located within countries
that are strategic to both the West and Russia. Each already has
claimed independence and enjoyed de facto independence for more than
a decade, but none has been successful in gaining the support of
international forces for independence like Montenegro.
Georgia has two secessionist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
that back up to the Russian border. Georgia has been struggling
against the Russian backlash since the 2004 Rose Revolution that gave
it pro-Western status; since then Georgia has been pushing to join
Western institutions such as NATO, but not without Russian criticism.
Moldova borders recent EU member Romania and also has been fighting
to become an EU member. But its membership into either the European
Union or NATO has been prevented because of its small enclave of
Transdniestria -- the population of which is majority Russian and
Ukrainian.
Azerbaijan has been pushed into being more pro-West since the opening
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline (BTC), which Western companies
developed to feed oil to Europe. The pipeline has afforded Azerbaijan
a huge windfall of cash. Though the West expects its Nagorno-Karabakh
region to gain independence along the Kosovo principle, the issue
has not been pressed since the BTC holds more importance than does
the region seceding.
Each of these regions has been unusually quiet during the wait for a
Kosovo resolution, and is keeping on eye on how the West pushes for
Kosovar independence. However, the fight for Kosovo's independence has
taken a turn from what many thought was inevitable at the beginning
of the year. The Kosovo decision has moved from being an issue about
Kosovar Albanians' independence from Serbia into a power struggle
between Russia and the West. Now these four regions in the former
Soviet Union also are falling into the struggle between the West
and Russia.
It is no secret that the Commonwealth for Democracy and Rights of
Nations is a Russian-backed and -funded organization. For years it
has been used to cause trouble in Moldova and Georgia. It is typical
for Russia to manipulate Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria
when it wants to strike out against Georgia, Moldova and the West.
But the interesting twist this year was the addition of
Nagorno-Karabakh, since Russia does not usually meddle in this region
as much as in the others. Moreover, the United States is prevalent in
the region both politically and financially -- so far it has managed
to keep Nagorno-Karabakh from joining the other "frozen conflicts"
in the Russian initiative. Either Nagorno-Karabakh has realized
that the United States is not moving to gain its independence or
that Russia is finally trying to get more involved in the region,
pulling it into its secessionist region movement.
Either way, the shift is a clear sign that Russia is gaining just
another region to manipulate while it strikes back at the West's
infiltration into its former Soviet Union states. The West is not
ready for any more crises outside of Kosovo. However, if the United
States moves to give Kosovo its independence without Russia on board,
Russia has these other regions ready to cause a string of crises for
which the West is not prepared, and in states that Washington has
fought so hard in the past decade to keep on its side.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress