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ARMENIA: OPINION POLLS A FRESH FIELD FOR POLITICAL BATTLE
Gayane Abrahamyan
EurasiaNet, NY
May 4 2007
Opinion polls are showing that the governing Republican Party of
Armenia and the pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party should command
a comfortable majority of votes in Armenia's parliamentary elections
on May 12. Some opposition parties, however, claim the findings are
fraudulent -- the product of partisan politics.
There is one area -- the popular mood -- where there is little
argument among members of the political elite. The recent polling data
indicates that discontent over the status quo is widely prevalent. A
March 16-25 survey of 1,200 residents run by Baltic Surveys Ltd./The
Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological Association for
the International Republican Institute reported that 50 percent of
respondents believe the country is on the wrong tack, and 59 percent
said that they have no hope for a fair election.
A January survey run by the APR Group indicated still higher
discontent: 94.3 percent of 663 respondents surveyed believe Armenia
needs "radical" socio-economic changes, while a whopping 83 percent
stated that they do not trust government authority.
Under recent constitutional amendments, the parliament elected on May
12 will be more powerful than in the past and, in theory, is expected
by some observers to take a more active role in shaping domestic and
foreign policies.
Aharon Adibekian, head of the Sociometer polling center, compares the
struggle to a wrestling tournament, with parties divided into weight
categories. A survey of 3,000 respondents run by Sociometer in 60
population centers nationwide indicates that the bulk of votes will
go to parties in what Adibekian terms the "heavyweight category." He
predicts the ruling Republican Party of Armenia will receive a 34
percent share, with 32 percent going to oligarch Gagik Tsarukian's
pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party. The opposition Country of
Law Party, a middleweight contender, he says, will trail a distant
third at 10-12 percent.
Other opposition parties bring up the rear, headed by the Heritage
Party, (another "middleweight" party), with an estimated 7-8 percent
of the vote, followed by the "lightweight" National Unity Party
and People's Party of Armenia, leaders of the 2004 protests against
President Robert Kocharian, garnering 7 percent or less.
The pollster predicts that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation,
part of the current government coalition, will receive 8-10 percent
of the vote, while the United Labor Party, a fellow coalition member,
may not even meet the necessary 5 percent of the vote necessary to
take seats in parliament.
Some politicians downplay the survey data, expressing the belief that
some pollsters are working with officials to create an electoral
climate favorable to incumbent authority. "Society is sick and
tired of both lying politicians and corrupt sociologists," Deputy
Parliamentary Speaker Vahan Hovhannisyan, a senior leader of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation, told journalists on April 7.
Manuk Gasparian, chairman of the strongly oppositional Democratic Way
Party, which Adibekian claims will receive zero percent of the vote,
elaborated on that take: "We'll see who is zero," Gasparian scoffed.
"Adibekian serves the authorities and purposefully publishes data
to mislead people, [to give them the opportunity] to falsify votes
and say later that [a party's victory] was [the result of] their
popularity." Gasparian puts his party's likely results at 8 percent
of total vote, provided that the election is free-and-fair.
Armenian political parties have generally held international polling
organizations in greater esteem than local ones, but this time,
a survey run by British pollster Populus shows roughly comparable
results. A Populus survey of 2,000 individuals, conducted April
3-10, predicted 31 percent of the vote for the Republican Party, 27
percent for Prosperous Armenia, 11 percent for the Country of Law,
8 percent for the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, 7 percent for
the opposition National Unity and 5 percent for the People's Party
of Tigran Karapetian. The poll had a 1 percent margin of error.
Both Populus and Adibekian reported growing popularity for the
Republican Party of Armenia, which has received a preponderance of
mass media campaign coverage, according to monitors. [For details,
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Populus Director Andrew Cooper pointed out during an April 20 press
conference that the governing party was well organized and appeared
to have a highly motivated voter base. "The important thing is that
people who are going to support the Republicans are more likely to take
part in the voting than the supporters of other parties," Cooper said.
Adibekian claimed that Prosperous Armenia, often seen as a rival to the
Republican Party, has experienced a nearly 40 percentage point decline
in popularity since November-December 2006. The pollster puts it
down to what he describes as the diminished popularity of the various
charity programs associated with the party's head, Gagik Tsarukian --
an observation not widely born out by media reports from the field.
Adibekian's predicted turnout for the upcoming vote is also cause
for controversy: a relatively high 60 percent, by his estimate,
the same number recorded for official turnout during the rowdy
2003 parliamentary elections. By contrast, a poll run in March by
Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological
Association predicted a 43 percent turnout.
"It's a big question whether Adibekian's predictions come true, or if
he just states the authorities' scenario," commented Aram Karapetian,
chairman of the hard-line oppositional New Times Party.
Adibekian brushes off the criticism. Clients would not pay $10,000 -
$15,000 per survey, he stressed, for fraudulent results.
Editor's Note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for the independent
online ArmeniaNow weekly in Yerevan.
Gayane Abrahamyan
EurasiaNet, NY
May 4 2007
Opinion polls are showing that the governing Republican Party of
Armenia and the pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party should command
a comfortable majority of votes in Armenia's parliamentary elections
on May 12. Some opposition parties, however, claim the findings are
fraudulent -- the product of partisan politics.
There is one area -- the popular mood -- where there is little
argument among members of the political elite. The recent polling data
indicates that discontent over the status quo is widely prevalent. A
March 16-25 survey of 1,200 residents run by Baltic Surveys Ltd./The
Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological Association for
the International Republican Institute reported that 50 percent of
respondents believe the country is on the wrong tack, and 59 percent
said that they have no hope for a fair election.
A January survey run by the APR Group indicated still higher
discontent: 94.3 percent of 663 respondents surveyed believe Armenia
needs "radical" socio-economic changes, while a whopping 83 percent
stated that they do not trust government authority.
Under recent constitutional amendments, the parliament elected on May
12 will be more powerful than in the past and, in theory, is expected
by some observers to take a more active role in shaping domestic and
foreign policies.
Aharon Adibekian, head of the Sociometer polling center, compares the
struggle to a wrestling tournament, with parties divided into weight
categories. A survey of 3,000 respondents run by Sociometer in 60
population centers nationwide indicates that the bulk of votes will
go to parties in what Adibekian terms the "heavyweight category." He
predicts the ruling Republican Party of Armenia will receive a 34
percent share, with 32 percent going to oligarch Gagik Tsarukian's
pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party. The opposition Country of
Law Party, a middleweight contender, he says, will trail a distant
third at 10-12 percent.
Other opposition parties bring up the rear, headed by the Heritage
Party, (another "middleweight" party), with an estimated 7-8 percent
of the vote, followed by the "lightweight" National Unity Party
and People's Party of Armenia, leaders of the 2004 protests against
President Robert Kocharian, garnering 7 percent or less.
The pollster predicts that the Armenian Revolutionary Federation,
part of the current government coalition, will receive 8-10 percent
of the vote, while the United Labor Party, a fellow coalition member,
may not even meet the necessary 5 percent of the vote necessary to
take seats in parliament.
Some politicians downplay the survey data, expressing the belief that
some pollsters are working with officials to create an electoral
climate favorable to incumbent authority. "Society is sick and
tired of both lying politicians and corrupt sociologists," Deputy
Parliamentary Speaker Vahan Hovhannisyan, a senior leader of the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation, told journalists on April 7.
Manuk Gasparian, chairman of the strongly oppositional Democratic Way
Party, which Adibekian claims will receive zero percent of the vote,
elaborated on that take: "We'll see who is zero," Gasparian scoffed.
"Adibekian serves the authorities and purposefully publishes data
to mislead people, [to give them the opportunity] to falsify votes
and say later that [a party's victory] was [the result of] their
popularity." Gasparian puts his party's likely results at 8 percent
of total vote, provided that the election is free-and-fair.
Armenian political parties have generally held international polling
organizations in greater esteem than local ones, but this time,
a survey run by British pollster Populus shows roughly comparable
results. A Populus survey of 2,000 individuals, conducted April
3-10, predicted 31 percent of the vote for the Republican Party, 27
percent for Prosperous Armenia, 11 percent for the Country of Law,
8 percent for the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, 7 percent for
the opposition National Unity and 5 percent for the People's Party
of Tigran Karapetian. The poll had a 1 percent margin of error.
Both Populus and Adibekian reported growing popularity for the
Republican Party of Armenia, which has received a preponderance of
mass media campaign coverage, according to monitors. [For details,
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Populus Director Andrew Cooper pointed out during an April 20 press
conference that the governing party was well organized and appeared
to have a highly motivated voter base. "The important thing is that
people who are going to support the Republicans are more likely to take
part in the voting than the supporters of other parties," Cooper said.
Adibekian claimed that Prosperous Armenia, often seen as a rival to the
Republican Party, has experienced a nearly 40 percentage point decline
in popularity since November-December 2006. The pollster puts it
down to what he describes as the diminished popularity of the various
charity programs associated with the party's head, Gagik Tsarukian --
an observation not widely born out by media reports from the field.
Adibekian's predicted turnout for the upcoming vote is also cause
for controversy: a relatively high 60 percent, by his estimate,
the same number recorded for official turnout during the rowdy
2003 parliamentary elections. By contrast, a poll run in March by
Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization and the Armenian Sociological
Association predicted a 43 percent turnout.
"It's a big question whether Adibekian's predictions come true, or if
he just states the authorities' scenario," commented Aram Karapetian,
chairman of the hard-line oppositional New Times Party.
Adibekian brushes off the criticism. Clients would not pay $10,000 -
$15,000 per survey, he stressed, for fraudulent results.
Editor's Note: Gayane Abrahamyan is a reporter for the independent
online ArmeniaNow weekly in Yerevan.