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AZERBAIJAN: EXPERTS SKEPTICAL ABOUT PROSPECTS FOR NAGORNO-KARABAKH BREAKTHROUGH
Rovshan Ismayilov
EurasiaNet, NY
May 8 2007
Despite evidence of movement toward a settlement of the long-stalemated
Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks, Azerbaijani experts remain skeptical
that Azerbaijan and Armenia will settle their differences in the
near future.
Mediators from the OSCE's Minsk Group have sounded optimistic notes of
late about progress in negotiations. US Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State and Minsk Group Co-Chair Matthew Bryza indicated in an
interview with Voice of America that the two sides appeared on the
verge of breakthroughs in several areas. According to a transcript
of Bryza's comments distributed by the Today.az website, Azerbaijani
and Armenian negotiators were nearing agreement on the return of two
Armenian-occupied regions of Azerbaijan - Kalbajar and Lachin. In
addition, the two sides were making headway on perhaps the thorniest
issue - Karabakh's future political status.
Following an OSCE Permanent Council session in mid-April, Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian was quoted as saying that, at least
on paper, "we have never been as close to a settlement," the Arminfo
news agency reported.
Elmar Mammadyarov, the Azerbaijani foreign minister, was also
cautiously upbeat. Speaking to journalists in Baku on April 26,
Mammadyarov hinted that progress had been made, but added that all the
details had not yet been worked out. "Negotiations have to continue,"
he said.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian recently revealed that he is likely
to meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, early in June
in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. "After this meeting it will be
clear at which stage we are now," Kocharian said. Armenian leaders
are currently focused on that country's parliamentary elections on
May 12. Pro-Kocharian parties are expected to maintain their solid
hold on power, thus it is unlikely that the vote's outcome will not
have a significant impact on the Armenian negotiating position. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
On May 4, Aliyev appeared to engage in a bit of negotiating
gamesmanship when he claimed during a public ceremony that Armenia
had made pivotal concessions. The Azerbaijani president alleged that
Armenia had already agreed to withdraw from all seven of the occupied
territories surrounding Karabakh, including Kalbajar and Lachin,
the two most strategically sensitive areas under discussion. Yerevan
had also consented to withdraw troops from the occupied territories
before the establishment of a framework for the determination of
Karabakh's status, Aliyev said.
In addition, according to Aliyev, internally displaced persons
(IDPs) in Azerbaijan would be permitted to return to their homes in
the conflict region as soon as Armenian troops withdrew from the
occupied territories. Armenia and Azerbaijan have both sanctioned
the deployment of an international peacekeeping force in the region
for a limited period of time, Aliyev added.
Aliyev's statements run counter to the existing basic principles for
an agreement. Under those guidelines, the implementation of any portion
of a peace pact cannot begin until all outstanding issues are resolved.
Armenian leaders immediately denied making any negotiating
concessions. Meanwhile, Bryza indicated that the two sides remained
divided over the composition of a peacekeeping force. A means for
determining Karabakh's final status also remains problematic.
Azerbaijani officials have said that the return of Azerbaijani IDPs
to Karabakh must take place before any kind of vote or referendum of
the territory's political status could be considered.
Azerbaijani political analysts in Baku remain unconvinced that a peace
deal is within reach. Referring to the recent string of optimistic
pronouncements from officials involved in the negotiations, Ilgar
Mammadov, Baku-based independent political analyst, said: "We have
already heard it in the past."
Alesker Mammadli, a Baku-based lawyer and political analyst, (as well
as an IDP from the Agdam Region), expressed the belief that Yerevan's
desire to negotiate would weaken after that country's parliamentary
elections. Mammadli additionally voiced doubt that Armenia would
agree to withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territory unless firm
guarantees were in place concerning the determination of Karabakh's
status. "The occupied territories are their [Armenia's] main trump
card at the talks. From the other standpoint, Azerbaijan cannot give
guarantees over the status of Karabakh, as government officials [in
Baku] always have said that a settlement will maintain the country's
territorial integrity," he said.
Mammadov said that the respective administrations of Aliyev and
Kocharian were in relatively strong domestic political positions,
and thus had no incentive to budge from their current negotiating
stances. "Both countries are not weak now and there is no chance"
of pressuring them into making sizable concessions, Mammadov said.
"Therefore I do not expect anything serious from the upcoming meeting
of the presidents."
Experts' pessimism is related in part to the instability of the
ceasefire regime at the frontline. Azerbaijani and Armenian news
outlets both have reported widespread and frequent exchanges of
gunfire throughout April and into early May.
Editor's Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based
in Baku
Rovshan Ismayilov
EurasiaNet, NY
May 8 2007
Despite evidence of movement toward a settlement of the long-stalemated
Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks, Azerbaijani experts remain skeptical
that Azerbaijan and Armenia will settle their differences in the
near future.
Mediators from the OSCE's Minsk Group have sounded optimistic notes of
late about progress in negotiations. US Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State and Minsk Group Co-Chair Matthew Bryza indicated in an
interview with Voice of America that the two sides appeared on the
verge of breakthroughs in several areas. According to a transcript
of Bryza's comments distributed by the Today.az website, Azerbaijani
and Armenian negotiators were nearing agreement on the return of two
Armenian-occupied regions of Azerbaijan - Kalbajar and Lachin. In
addition, the two sides were making headway on perhaps the thorniest
issue - Karabakh's future political status.
Following an OSCE Permanent Council session in mid-April, Armenian
Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanian was quoted as saying that, at least
on paper, "we have never been as close to a settlement," the Arminfo
news agency reported.
Elmar Mammadyarov, the Azerbaijani foreign minister, was also
cautiously upbeat. Speaking to journalists in Baku on April 26,
Mammadyarov hinted that progress had been made, but added that all the
details had not yet been worked out. "Negotiations have to continue,"
he said.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian recently revealed that he is likely
to meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, early in June
in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. "After this meeting it will be
clear at which stage we are now," Kocharian said. Armenian leaders
are currently focused on that country's parliamentary elections on
May 12. Pro-Kocharian parties are expected to maintain their solid
hold on power, thus it is unlikely that the vote's outcome will not
have a significant impact on the Armenian negotiating position. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
On May 4, Aliyev appeared to engage in a bit of negotiating
gamesmanship when he claimed during a public ceremony that Armenia
had made pivotal concessions. The Azerbaijani president alleged that
Armenia had already agreed to withdraw from all seven of the occupied
territories surrounding Karabakh, including Kalbajar and Lachin,
the two most strategically sensitive areas under discussion. Yerevan
had also consented to withdraw troops from the occupied territories
before the establishment of a framework for the determination of
Karabakh's status, Aliyev said.
In addition, according to Aliyev, internally displaced persons
(IDPs) in Azerbaijan would be permitted to return to their homes in
the conflict region as soon as Armenian troops withdrew from the
occupied territories. Armenia and Azerbaijan have both sanctioned
the deployment of an international peacekeeping force in the region
for a limited period of time, Aliyev added.
Aliyev's statements run counter to the existing basic principles for
an agreement. Under those guidelines, the implementation of any portion
of a peace pact cannot begin until all outstanding issues are resolved.
Armenian leaders immediately denied making any negotiating
concessions. Meanwhile, Bryza indicated that the two sides remained
divided over the composition of a peacekeeping force. A means for
determining Karabakh's final status also remains problematic.
Azerbaijani officials have said that the return of Azerbaijani IDPs
to Karabakh must take place before any kind of vote or referendum of
the territory's political status could be considered.
Azerbaijani political analysts in Baku remain unconvinced that a peace
deal is within reach. Referring to the recent string of optimistic
pronouncements from officials involved in the negotiations, Ilgar
Mammadov, Baku-based independent political analyst, said: "We have
already heard it in the past."
Alesker Mammadli, a Baku-based lawyer and political analyst, (as well
as an IDP from the Agdam Region), expressed the belief that Yerevan's
desire to negotiate would weaken after that country's parliamentary
elections. Mammadli additionally voiced doubt that Armenia would
agree to withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territory unless firm
guarantees were in place concerning the determination of Karabakh's
status. "The occupied territories are their [Armenia's] main trump
card at the talks. From the other standpoint, Azerbaijan cannot give
guarantees over the status of Karabakh, as government officials [in
Baku] always have said that a settlement will maintain the country's
territorial integrity," he said.
Mammadov said that the respective administrations of Aliyev and
Kocharian were in relatively strong domestic political positions,
and thus had no incentive to budge from their current negotiating
stances. "Both countries are not weak now and there is no chance"
of pressuring them into making sizable concessions, Mammadov said.
"Therefore I do not expect anything serious from the upcoming meeting
of the presidents."
Experts' pessimism is related in part to the instability of the
ceasefire regime at the frontline. Azerbaijani and Armenian news
outlets both have reported widespread and frequent exchanges of
gunfire throughout April and into early May.
Editor's Note: Rovshan Ismayilov is a freelance journalist based
in Baku