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Iran-U.S. Tensions Could Reach Armenia
YEREVAN, Armenia, May 21, 2007
(Christian Science Monitor)
This story was written by Nicole Itano
In late March, as the United Nations Security Council debated whether
to increase sanctions against Iran over that country's refusal to halt
its nuclear program, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his
Armenian counterpart met near the border of the two countries to
inaugurate a new pipeline bringing Iranian natural gas to fuel
Armenian cities.
Lighting a symbolic flame, Armenian President Robert Kocharian called
the ceremony "evidence of our friendship." But it's a relationship
some of Armenia's other friends - particularly the U.S. - wish
weren't quite so cozy.
As tensions between Iran and the West approach a boiling point,
Armenia is finding it increasingly difficult to negotiate the
often-conflicting alliances in its complicated neighborhood. Its
precarious position illustrates the potentially destabilizing
consequences of a Western standoff with Iran on not only the Middle
East, but the South Caucasus as well.
More than 15 years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, the fragile
region remains politically volatile. A number of unresolved conflicts
- over the breakaway regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South
Ossetia - still poison relations between neighbors.
Those local tensions have been amplified by new global focus on the
region that has placed the countries at a nexus of competing
interests. Russia, the US, the European Union, Turkey, and Iran all
claim important economic or political stakes in the region.
Keeping good relations with Iran is vital for Armenia, a small,
landlocked country. Its main borders - with Turkey and Azerbaijan -
are closed, and the country is still in a state of cold war with
neighboring Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, an unrecognized
ethnically Armenian state that is still legally part of Muslim
Azerbaijan.
But the US is Armenia's main donor and the only one which currently
funds humanitarian assistance in Karabakh. Over the next five years,
Armenia is also slated to receive $235 million in aid through
President Bush's flagship international development program, the new
Millennium Challenge Account.
Armenia's outgoing foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, says Armenia's
allies understand its difficult position. But he also acknowledges
that, as tensions rise, there is increasing pressure to choose a side.
"In the case of Iran and the United States, I think we're reaching
that point," says Mr. Oskanian, who is Syrian-born and earned a
masters degree at Tufts University in Medford, Mass.
Analysts say military conflict with Iran would be devastating for the
region and many here fear that its effects could spill over into
Iran's neighbors in the South Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
"God forbid, if there is military action against Iran, Armenia may get
involved. And Azerbaijan as well," says Stiopa Safarian, director of
research at the Armenian Center for National and International
Studies, a think tank connected to the opposition Heritage Party.
In the worst-case scenario, Mr. Safarian says, it could reignite
conflict between the two countries, which still stare each other down
across disputed and heavily militarized cease-fire line near Iran.
Armenia spends $250 to $300 million a year on its military, largely
because of the unsolved Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan spends more than
three times that.
But politicians also worry that even if the current conflict stops
short of military intervention, heightened tension between Iran and
the West could shatter the delicate diplomatic balancing act in the
region.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both have close ties to the United States and
Iran, although Christian Armenia's ties have been steadier with Iran.
Despite Iran's sometimes tense relations with Azerbaijan, many
analysts say the country plays a key balancing role in the
region. Iran steadies relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and
counterbalances the influence of Russia, a key regional power.
So far, Armenia has been able to steer a middle course between the
U.S. and Iran. It has stayed largely silent on Iran's nuclear policy,
but kept its economic ties with the country transparent and - along
with Azerbaijan - quietly enforced international nonproliferation
agreements.
But the U.S. is concerned about the growing economic ties between
Armenia and its neighbor, particularly the new pipeline, which
Armenians see as strategically vital.
Armenia has no energy resources of its own and suffered severe energy
shortages in the early 1990s as a result of the civil war in
neighboring Georgia.
"Armenia was dependent on pipelines that passed through several
countries," says Serzh Sarkisian, who recently became Armenia's prime
minister. "We remember what the situation was in Armenia when that
pipe was out of order. Imagine sitting in Yerevan in January and you
have no heat, no water, and it was minus 30 degrees Celsius."
Given Iran's economic importance to Armenia, though, few here believe
that Armenia can do anything other than continue to claim neutrality
for as long as possible. But beneath Armenia's steady relationship
with Iran, there is also wariness in the country about its neighbor's
behavior.
"It's very simple. I don't think that anyone in Armenia would be happy
if next to their borders they would have weapons of mass destruction,"
says Mr. Sarkisian.
Copyright © 2007 The Christian Science Monitor. All rights
reserved.
Iran-U.S. Tensions Could Reach Armenia
YEREVAN, Armenia, May 21, 2007
(Christian Science Monitor)
This story was written by Nicole Itano
In late March, as the United Nations Security Council debated whether
to increase sanctions against Iran over that country's refusal to halt
its nuclear program, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his
Armenian counterpart met near the border of the two countries to
inaugurate a new pipeline bringing Iranian natural gas to fuel
Armenian cities.
Lighting a symbolic flame, Armenian President Robert Kocharian called
the ceremony "evidence of our friendship." But it's a relationship
some of Armenia's other friends - particularly the U.S. - wish
weren't quite so cozy.
As tensions between Iran and the West approach a boiling point,
Armenia is finding it increasingly difficult to negotiate the
often-conflicting alliances in its complicated neighborhood. Its
precarious position illustrates the potentially destabilizing
consequences of a Western standoff with Iran on not only the Middle
East, but the South Caucasus as well.
More than 15 years after the breakup of the Soviet Union, the fragile
region remains politically volatile. A number of unresolved conflicts
- over the breakaway regions of Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, and South
Ossetia - still poison relations between neighbors.
Those local tensions have been amplified by new global focus on the
region that has placed the countries at a nexus of competing
interests. Russia, the US, the European Union, Turkey, and Iran all
claim important economic or political stakes in the region.
Keeping good relations with Iran is vital for Armenia, a small,
landlocked country. Its main borders - with Turkey and Azerbaijan -
are closed, and the country is still in a state of cold war with
neighboring Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, an unrecognized
ethnically Armenian state that is still legally part of Muslim
Azerbaijan.
But the US is Armenia's main donor and the only one which currently
funds humanitarian assistance in Karabakh. Over the next five years,
Armenia is also slated to receive $235 million in aid through
President Bush's flagship international development program, the new
Millennium Challenge Account.
Armenia's outgoing foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, says Armenia's
allies understand its difficult position. But he also acknowledges
that, as tensions rise, there is increasing pressure to choose a side.
"In the case of Iran and the United States, I think we're reaching
that point," says Mr. Oskanian, who is Syrian-born and earned a
masters degree at Tufts University in Medford, Mass.
Analysts say military conflict with Iran would be devastating for the
region and many here fear that its effects could spill over into
Iran's neighbors in the South Caucasus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
"God forbid, if there is military action against Iran, Armenia may get
involved. And Azerbaijan as well," says Stiopa Safarian, director of
research at the Armenian Center for National and International
Studies, a think tank connected to the opposition Heritage Party.
In the worst-case scenario, Mr. Safarian says, it could reignite
conflict between the two countries, which still stare each other down
across disputed and heavily militarized cease-fire line near Iran.
Armenia spends $250 to $300 million a year on its military, largely
because of the unsolved Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan spends more than
three times that.
But politicians also worry that even if the current conflict stops
short of military intervention, heightened tension between Iran and
the West could shatter the delicate diplomatic balancing act in the
region.
Armenia and Azerbaijan both have close ties to the United States and
Iran, although Christian Armenia's ties have been steadier with Iran.
Despite Iran's sometimes tense relations with Azerbaijan, many
analysts say the country plays a key balancing role in the
region. Iran steadies relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan and
counterbalances the influence of Russia, a key regional power.
So far, Armenia has been able to steer a middle course between the
U.S. and Iran. It has stayed largely silent on Iran's nuclear policy,
but kept its economic ties with the country transparent and - along
with Azerbaijan - quietly enforced international nonproliferation
agreements.
But the U.S. is concerned about the growing economic ties between
Armenia and its neighbor, particularly the new pipeline, which
Armenians see as strategically vital.
Armenia has no energy resources of its own and suffered severe energy
shortages in the early 1990s as a result of the civil war in
neighboring Georgia.
"Armenia was dependent on pipelines that passed through several
countries," says Serzh Sarkisian, who recently became Armenia's prime
minister. "We remember what the situation was in Armenia when that
pipe was out of order. Imagine sitting in Yerevan in January and you
have no heat, no water, and it was minus 30 degrees Celsius."
Given Iran's economic importance to Armenia, though, few here believe
that Armenia can do anything other than continue to claim neutrality
for as long as possible. But beneath Armenia's steady relationship
with Iran, there is also wariness in the country about its neighbor's
behavior.
"It's very simple. I don't think that anyone in Armenia would be happy
if next to their borders they would have weapons of mass destruction,"
says Mr. Sarkisian.
Copyright © 2007 The Christian Science Monitor. All rights
reserved.