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OTTO FON BISMARCK: IT'S POSSIBLE TO POSTPONE A WAR, BUT NOT AVOID IT
By Armen Manvelian, translated by L.H.
AZG Armenian Daily #200
01/11/2007
Kurdish Issue
Turkish invasion of North Iraq is less possible, according to world
leading analytical centers. The reason is the created situation in
the region. In case of invasion, Turks would have serious problems
not only inside of Iraq, as not only Iraqi but also Turkey's Kurds
would act against the Turkish army - and fight on two fronts is hard.
It's worth to mention that in recent years a Kurdish regular army is
being formed by active interference of American and Israeli instructors
of Kurdish autonomy of Iraq.
It's a new phenomenon in the region, and Turkish army is not used to
fight with a regular army, as in recent decades it collided only with
small partisan detachments.
Besides, Ankara acts under pressure of Washington and Brussels, and in
case of invasion it might finally corrupt the strained relations with
the USA, and the negotiation process with the EU would be canceled.
It's clear that the invasion is not advantageous to Iraq, too, as
their inner problems would be doubled with the foreign one, which
would finally corrupt that country. Turkey would also suffer from
Iraq's corruption, as it would come across with a fact of creation
of an independent Kurdish state with its consequences.
USA-Turkey relations
Before Iraqi second war, Turkey was regarded as the main military ally
of the USA in the region. Middle East and Persian Gulf have always been
in the framework of US interests. With this is explained Turkey-USA
military cooperation, also the presence of figures and analysts in
the US Defense Ministry who support Turkey; they always attached a
great importance to the military significance of Turkey before the
Iraqi second war. According to well-known Pentagon analyst Richard
Parley's plan, the USA-British-Turkish joint army would act for the
invasion of northern part of Iraq. According to it, Turkish armed
forces would take control of about 55 square meter of territory. With
the northern Kurdish-populated regions Turkey would took control
of oil-rich cities Mosul and Kirkuk. The official Turkey would be
given the right to exploit the oil-wells for a limitless time. The
oil resources that flew to Jeyhan would also enter into possession
of Turkey. But all these programs and plans advantageous for Turkey
weren't carried out, as Turkish parliament voted against using the
country's territory for the American invasion. Similar decision that
didn't let the USA open the northern front seemed to corrupt finally
the Turkish-American military cooperation. Nevertheless, time showed
that in spite of everything, the USA continues to depend on Turkish
military bases for providing own armed forces with food and ammunition.
It also showed that the USA should find an alternative in the
region. That is the reason of Washington's interest in Iraqi Kurdish
autonomy and Kurdish issue in general.
The Kurdish mine
The Kurdish issue is a slowly acting mine for the Turkish state. To
this longstanding truth we can only add that the hand of the clock
seems to go faster threatening to blow up not only Turkey, but also
the whole region.
It's clear that official Ankara cannot wait for the intensification
of the Kurdish movement, but, from the other side, its operations
are restricted by the assumed obligations to EU and USA.
Turkish media blames the USA and well-known program "Big Middle East"
for aggravating the Kurdish issue.
According to Turkish analysts, the program aims at creating a Kurdish
state faithful to Washington in the center of Middle East. Until
very recently Ankara didn't even except the existence of the Kurdish
issue in its country. They considered Kurds as mountainous Turks
and according to Turks, their issues were possible to settle only by
economic reforms. Many analysts explained Turkish desire to become
EU member as means of recovering country's corrupting economy and
avoiding separatist movements. Anyhow, it's clear that it's impossible
to solve the Kurdish issue by economic reforms. The idea of creating
independent state has already distinctly formed among Kurds, which is
the only condition of providing the physical existence of the Kurdish
ethnic element. Naturally, Kurds are aware of the Turkish version of
"settlement" of the Armenian issue, which like Damocle's sword hangs
over the Kurdish population of Turkey as well.
We should not exclude the possibility of a new genocide by Ankara
in case of reinforcement of the Kurdish movement and their natural
desire to separate from Turkey.
Kurdish autonomy and the region
Creation of the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq inspired the Kurds of the
neighboring countries and mainly Kurds of Turkey. This process changed
the role of the Kurdish factor in the region. Actually, the Iraqi Kurds
control the three north-eastern states (Erbil, Suleimanie, Dahuq) of
the country. According to Kurdish sources here live 4,5 mln Kurds, that
is 85 percent of the local population. The most influential parties of
the Iraqi Kurdistan are Kurdistan Patriotic Union of Jalal Talabani and
Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masud Barzani. If the first controls
the main eastern part neighboring mainly Iran, the second controls the
northern parts adjacent to Turkey. Before the parliamentary elections
of Iraq the two parties came to compromise on joint participation in
the elections, and it provided 25 percent in the parliament.
Turkish side is also nervous about the fact that during the
parliamentary elections Kurds actually held a referendum as well and
the majority of the three states voted for the independence. Though the
present authorities of the Kurdish autonomy and the political parties
announce that they have no issue of creating a Kurdish independent
state on the agenda, anyhow it's clear that it's only a matter of time.
USA and the Kurdish issue
It's not a secret that Washington is looking for an alternative in the
region instead of Turkey that gets out of White House's control. The
White House and especially the Pentagon needs a new colleague, which
will easily come to compromise and will not suffer from a Turkish
syndrome of fancying itself as a superpower in the region. In this
sense, Kurdish factor is observed as an alternative. Located in the
central part of Middle East the geographical position of Kurds is
interesting for the US military bases, which can be allocated there
after leaving Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds consider Americans as liberators
from the regime of Hussein, and are ready to assist Washington in any
case, in order its military presence continue as much as possible. This
is the reason why George Bush received the leader of Kurdistan Masud
Barzani several years ago.This unprecedented meeting showed the role
of the Kurdish factor in the US policy of the region.
It's worth to mention that this cooperation is also advantageous to
the main ally of the USA - Israel.
Being surrounded by enemy Arabic states, Israel does everything for
the creation of a Kurdish state. It means that a situation is created
in the region, where Kurds enjoy the assistance of the main allies of
Turkey - the USA and Israel. The refusal of the cooperation of these
two countries (USA and Israel) means a serious change in Turkish
foreign policy, a step that Turkey is not ready to do at present.
Today it's clear that the Kurdish issue has changed from inner issue
into an international one and in the "settlement" are involved EU,
USA and other international structures.
It means that a situation is created, where official Ankara on the
one hand accepts the availability of the Kurdish issue and necessity
of its settlement, on the other hand it understands that the movement
is separatist and it cannot be solved only by democratic reforms or
even by armed way. In addition, Turks are not ready for compromises.
At the end, we can add that the strengthening of the role of Kurds
in the region should become a serious subject of Armenian political
and analytical centers' studies, as it's already clear today that
establishment of Armenian-Kurdish relations, even if at not official
level, is already an issue of agenda.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By Armen Manvelian, translated by L.H.
AZG Armenian Daily #200
01/11/2007
Kurdish Issue
Turkish invasion of North Iraq is less possible, according to world
leading analytical centers. The reason is the created situation in
the region. In case of invasion, Turks would have serious problems
not only inside of Iraq, as not only Iraqi but also Turkey's Kurds
would act against the Turkish army - and fight on two fronts is hard.
It's worth to mention that in recent years a Kurdish regular army is
being formed by active interference of American and Israeli instructors
of Kurdish autonomy of Iraq.
It's a new phenomenon in the region, and Turkish army is not used to
fight with a regular army, as in recent decades it collided only with
small partisan detachments.
Besides, Ankara acts under pressure of Washington and Brussels, and in
case of invasion it might finally corrupt the strained relations with
the USA, and the negotiation process with the EU would be canceled.
It's clear that the invasion is not advantageous to Iraq, too, as
their inner problems would be doubled with the foreign one, which
would finally corrupt that country. Turkey would also suffer from
Iraq's corruption, as it would come across with a fact of creation
of an independent Kurdish state with its consequences.
USA-Turkey relations
Before Iraqi second war, Turkey was regarded as the main military ally
of the USA in the region. Middle East and Persian Gulf have always been
in the framework of US interests. With this is explained Turkey-USA
military cooperation, also the presence of figures and analysts in
the US Defense Ministry who support Turkey; they always attached a
great importance to the military significance of Turkey before the
Iraqi second war. According to well-known Pentagon analyst Richard
Parley's plan, the USA-British-Turkish joint army would act for the
invasion of northern part of Iraq. According to it, Turkish armed
forces would take control of about 55 square meter of territory. With
the northern Kurdish-populated regions Turkey would took control
of oil-rich cities Mosul and Kirkuk. The official Turkey would be
given the right to exploit the oil-wells for a limitless time. The
oil resources that flew to Jeyhan would also enter into possession
of Turkey. But all these programs and plans advantageous for Turkey
weren't carried out, as Turkish parliament voted against using the
country's territory for the American invasion. Similar decision that
didn't let the USA open the northern front seemed to corrupt finally
the Turkish-American military cooperation. Nevertheless, time showed
that in spite of everything, the USA continues to depend on Turkish
military bases for providing own armed forces with food and ammunition.
It also showed that the USA should find an alternative in the
region. That is the reason of Washington's interest in Iraqi Kurdish
autonomy and Kurdish issue in general.
The Kurdish mine
The Kurdish issue is a slowly acting mine for the Turkish state. To
this longstanding truth we can only add that the hand of the clock
seems to go faster threatening to blow up not only Turkey, but also
the whole region.
It's clear that official Ankara cannot wait for the intensification
of the Kurdish movement, but, from the other side, its operations
are restricted by the assumed obligations to EU and USA.
Turkish media blames the USA and well-known program "Big Middle East"
for aggravating the Kurdish issue.
According to Turkish analysts, the program aims at creating a Kurdish
state faithful to Washington in the center of Middle East. Until
very recently Ankara didn't even except the existence of the Kurdish
issue in its country. They considered Kurds as mountainous Turks
and according to Turks, their issues were possible to settle only by
economic reforms. Many analysts explained Turkish desire to become
EU member as means of recovering country's corrupting economy and
avoiding separatist movements. Anyhow, it's clear that it's impossible
to solve the Kurdish issue by economic reforms. The idea of creating
independent state has already distinctly formed among Kurds, which is
the only condition of providing the physical existence of the Kurdish
ethnic element. Naturally, Kurds are aware of the Turkish version of
"settlement" of the Armenian issue, which like Damocle's sword hangs
over the Kurdish population of Turkey as well.
We should not exclude the possibility of a new genocide by Ankara
in case of reinforcement of the Kurdish movement and their natural
desire to separate from Turkey.
Kurdish autonomy and the region
Creation of the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq inspired the Kurds of the
neighboring countries and mainly Kurds of Turkey. This process changed
the role of the Kurdish factor in the region. Actually, the Iraqi Kurds
control the three north-eastern states (Erbil, Suleimanie, Dahuq) of
the country. According to Kurdish sources here live 4,5 mln Kurds, that
is 85 percent of the local population. The most influential parties of
the Iraqi Kurdistan are Kurdistan Patriotic Union of Jalal Talabani and
Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masud Barzani. If the first controls
the main eastern part neighboring mainly Iran, the second controls the
northern parts adjacent to Turkey. Before the parliamentary elections
of Iraq the two parties came to compromise on joint participation in
the elections, and it provided 25 percent in the parliament.
Turkish side is also nervous about the fact that during the
parliamentary elections Kurds actually held a referendum as well and
the majority of the three states voted for the independence. Though the
present authorities of the Kurdish autonomy and the political parties
announce that they have no issue of creating a Kurdish independent
state on the agenda, anyhow it's clear that it's only a matter of time.
USA and the Kurdish issue
It's not a secret that Washington is looking for an alternative in the
region instead of Turkey that gets out of White House's control. The
White House and especially the Pentagon needs a new colleague, which
will easily come to compromise and will not suffer from a Turkish
syndrome of fancying itself as a superpower in the region. In this
sense, Kurdish factor is observed as an alternative. Located in the
central part of Middle East the geographical position of Kurds is
interesting for the US military bases, which can be allocated there
after leaving Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds consider Americans as liberators
from the regime of Hussein, and are ready to assist Washington in any
case, in order its military presence continue as much as possible. This
is the reason why George Bush received the leader of Kurdistan Masud
Barzani several years ago.This unprecedented meeting showed the role
of the Kurdish factor in the US policy of the region.
It's worth to mention that this cooperation is also advantageous to
the main ally of the USA - Israel.
Being surrounded by enemy Arabic states, Israel does everything for
the creation of a Kurdish state. It means that a situation is created
in the region, where Kurds enjoy the assistance of the main allies of
Turkey - the USA and Israel. The refusal of the cooperation of these
two countries (USA and Israel) means a serious change in Turkish
foreign policy, a step that Turkey is not ready to do at present.
Today it's clear that the Kurdish issue has changed from inner issue
into an international one and in the "settlement" are involved EU,
USA and other international structures.
It means that a situation is created, where official Ankara on the
one hand accepts the availability of the Kurdish issue and necessity
of its settlement, on the other hand it understands that the movement
is separatist and it cannot be solved only by democratic reforms or
even by armed way. In addition, Turks are not ready for compromises.
At the end, we can add that the strengthening of the role of Kurds
in the region should become a serious subject of Armenian political
and analytical centers' studies, as it's already clear today that
establishment of Armenian-Kurdish relations, even if at not official
level, is already an issue of agenda.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress