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WILL THERE BE A WAR?
Ruben Safrastyan
International Analyst Network, NY
Nov 12 2007
SAFRASTYAN SAYS ANKARA LIKELY TO EXPLOAT GENOCIDE RESOLUTION, PURSUE
STRONGER FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey might act on threats made to the United States if the Armenian
Genocide Resolution passes said Tuesday Director of the Institute
of Oriental Studies at the Armenian Academy of Sciences Dr. Ruben
Safrastyan, adding, however, that a Turkish retaliation will not do
much harm to the U.S. "Turkey will evidently launch military operations
in Northern Iraq as a form of revenge," he said, adding that Turkish
Prime Minister Erdogan has already given the go ahead.
"An appropriate draft bill will be approved in the parliament. As
to restricting the U.S. use of Incirlik base and blocking crucial
supply routes to Iraq, I do not suppose Turkey will resort to such
extreme measures," he commented. Passage of the H.Res.106 may lead
Turkey expand its role as a regional power and adopt a more proactive
foreign policy, said Safrastyan.
"Turkey wants to ensure its security at the expense of its neighbors.
This tradition has been maintained since the times of the Ottoman
Empire," he added. Although this resolution is non-binding and
lacks the authority to force the President to use the term genocide,
Dr. Safrastyan said, "Turkey has taken the opportunity to pursue its
own foreign policy," he remarked. (Yerkir, 10-10-07)
ACCORDING TO TURKEY EXPERT, POLITICAL TENSIONS EXPECTED IN USA
"Currently, Turkey cannot do everything it threatens to do. All they
can do is suggesting symbolic steps," Turkey expert Ruben Safrastyan
told a Panorama.am journalist when answering a question as to what
he expects to happen to Armenian-Turkish relations after the passage
of House Resolution No. 106.
We note that yesterday the foreign relations committee of the US
House of Representatives voted 27 for, 21 against in passing the
resolution. In Safrastyan's words, Turkey's parliament will take a
symbolic step and allow their armed forces to enter northern Iraq.
"That is also seen as a step in pressuring the USA," he insisted.
Safrastyan said that he didn't expect the passage of the resolution
to have any major affect on Armenia. "Armenia's budget won't get
larger, and Armenia won't get more foreign aid. We can only be happy
that a large and important government recognized and condemned the
Genocide. We have to be thankful for that," he said.
Safrastyan says he can't say for sure if the resolution will become law
in the end. "The Bush administrations, and especially Condoleezza Rice,
are fighting hard against the resolution. The reality is difficult,
but many are on our side this time," he added.
In any event, the resolution will now be passed on to Nancy Pelosi,
who will present the resolution to the House of Representatives for
discussion. "The House session continues until mid-November," he
said. "We'll have to see if Pelosi will present the resolution in the
current session or wait until after the winter break." (Panorama.am,
10-12-07)
KURDS ARE U.S. REAL ALLIES IN REGION
"The decision of the Turkish parliament to approve incursion into
northern Iraq doesn't mean immediate action. This decision is not
unexpected," Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the RA
Academy of Sciences, Prof. Ruben Safrastyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net
reporter.
"Erdogan's government is free to act and it can launch operations
any moment. I do not think it will be a large-scale incursion. The U.S.
has already expressed discontent about this plan and will go on
pressing. We should not forget that Kurds are U.S. real allies in
the region. Although, judging from Erdogan's statements, Turkey is
ready to wrangle with the U.S.," he said.
October 17, despite U.S. and NATO's warnings, Turkish parliamentarians
Okayed the government's plans on a cross-border operation into
northern Iraq for neutralization of the Kurdistan Workers' Party
rebels. (PanARMENIAN.Net, 10-18-07)
H.RES.106: TURKEY GAINS ITS ENDS FOR LAST TIME
Turkey has gained its ends but it happened for the last time, Director
of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the RA Academy of Sciences,
Prof. Ruben Safrastyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter when commenting
on the decision by H.Res.106 leading authors to call for a revised
schedule for the House consideration.
The U.S. refused from vote on H.Res.106 in exchange for Turkey's
promise not to launch war in Iraq, according to him.
"Nevertheless, I think that the resolution will be put on vote and
will be passed during the next Congress session in 2008. Turkey has
exhausted its tools of pressure on the United States," Prof.
Safrastyan said. (PanARMENIAN.Net, 10-26-07)
WILL THERE BE A WAR?
"Turkey seems to ease its will-power to resume a war but anti-Kurdish
sentiments continue to be dominant," Ruben Safrastyan, an expert in
Turkish studies, told a news conference today, speaking about the
situation on Turkish-Iraqi border.
The Turkish expert cannot forecast if there will be a war or not.
However, referring to Turkish media, he said that the final decision
will be reached on November 5, 6 when Turkish Prime Minister Erdoghan
is in USA. Safrastyan believes that Turkey pushes back the European
integration processes in its Middle East politics.
In the words of the expert, Turkish-Iraqi war is full of dangers.
Without doubt, Turkish intentions are strong. Turkey is supported
by the USA. "USA has started to provide intelligence information on
Kurdish Working Party deployments in the mountains of Northern Iraq,"
the expert said referring to the press secretary of Pentagon.
The next danger, according to the speaker, is that in case Turkey
engages in large-scale actions in Iraqi Kurdistan, it will mean that
Turkey engages in aggression against Iraq. The leadership of Iraq
has announced that it will fight against such actions. It means war
is inevitable. (Panorama.am, 11-01-07)
TURKEY USES THREATS TO UNLEASH WAR FOR STRENGTHENING ITS GEOPOLITICAL
POSITION, RUBEN SAFRASTIAN CONSIDERS
Abrupt aggravation of situation in the region, in particular, around
North Iraq and Iran, as well as the fact that Armenian factor starts
playing a bigger role in Turkey's policy requires conducting a precise
policy by the Armenian Foreign Ministry, with taking into consideration
existence of Armenian communities in these countries.
Ruben Safrastian, the Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies
of the National Academy of Sciences, stated at the November 1 press
conference.
In connection with possibility of Turkey's starting large-scale
operations against Iraqi Kurdistan, he mentioned that Turkey is
using threats to unleash a war for the purpose of receiving certain
political dividends. In particular, thanks to these actions Turkey
has already managed to freeze the issue of discussion of Resolution
106 on Armenian Genocide in U.S. Congress.
Besides, Turkey is using these threats to demonstrate its strength
in the region and to prove that it is one of the most powerful states.
"Through threats to start large-scale operations in North Iraq Turkey
is trying to strengthen its geopolitical position in the region",
R. Safrastian stated. (Noyan Tapan, 11-01-07)
ANKARA USES KURDS AND WAR THREATS FOR STRENGTHENING POSITIONS IN REGION
"The situation in the region is extremely tensed and complicated
by three factors: the Turkey-Iraq collision, Iran's nuclear program
and strengthening of Turkey's role in the region. Armenia can't be
indifferent about it," Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Institute
of the Oriental Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan.
"There are Armenian communities in all Middle East states and the RA
Foreign Ministry should closely watch the developments. It Turkey
launches a major cross-border operation in northern Iraq it will
inevitably lead to greater tensions. The PKK is menacing Ankara. In
July 2007, the ruling AKP used Kurds for gaining a victory. As result,
1/3 of Turkish MPs are ethnic Kurds. If the situation deteriorates
AKP will lose a part of mandates," he said.
"War can deliver a heavy blow on the economy of southwest Turkey. The
commodity turnover between Turkey and northern Iraq makes $2,5 -
3 billion with 200 thousand people engaged in business. Moreover,
war would strain social problems in Turkey," he said. "With strong
anti-Kurdish propaganda, Ankara uses Kurds and war threats to
strengthen positions in the region." (PanARMENIAN.Net, 11-01-07)
TURKEY DOESN'T SEEK AFTER EU MEMBERSHIP ANY LONGER?
"Turkey has restrained its diplomatic stride toward the European
Union recently," Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Institute of the
Oriental Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan. Turkey longs
for domination in the Middle East but not in Europe, according to him.
"Position of leading European states, including France which doesn't
want to see it in the EU, is an important factor here. Furthermore,
support for the European way of development wanes in Turkey," he said.
The EU-Turkey entry talks opened in October 2005, although the bid
was submitted in 1965. The Cypriot issue remains the major stumbling
block for Turkish membership. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has
numerously stated that 'Turkey has no place in Europe'. Manuel
Barroso, the President of the European Commission, shares this
opinion. (PanARMENIAN.Net, 11-01-07)
RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY ATTEMPTS TO REVIVE USSR POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST
"The Russian diplomacy attempts to revive the USSR policy in Middle
East, Dr Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Institute of Oriental
Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan.
"Russia is demonstrating wait-and-see attitude but the USSR used to
support Kurds. Do not forget that Masoud Barzani's father was a KGB
agent and the old ties were certainly maintained," he said adding
that Russia's line in the South Caucasus is still firm.
"Russia has the 102nd military base in Armenia. It has good relations
with Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the U.S. is determined to push
Russia out of the region," Dr Safrastyan said. (PanARMENIAN.Net,
11-01-07)
HAVING NO GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE, GUAM WAS FORMED TO RUIN CIS
"Georgia's domestic tensions will not change the balance of forces in
the region, just as GUAM activities. Having no geopolitical importance,
GUAM was formed to ruin the CIS," Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the
Institute of Oriental Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan.
"The Saakashvili regime is alive thanks to U.S. financial assistance.
Even if it collapses nothing will change in Georgia," he said.
When commenting on closure of U.S. and British Embassies in
Azerbaijan, Dr. Safrastyan said, "The Islamic factor is gaining
weight in Azerbaijan. This is not anti-Americanism, this is radical
Islamism. Although Baku's attempts to weaken it prove fruitless,
wahhabits have no influence on political regime in the republic yet."
(PanARMENIAN.Net, 11-01-07)
ARMENIA IS IN THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE REGION
Turkologist, Director of NAA (National Academy of Armenia) Institute
of Oriental Studies Ruben Safrastian was the guest of "Hayatsk"
club on Wednesday. He touched upon the three factors in the region,
mentioning that the Armenian factor has gained a significant role in
the world and especially Turkish policy. "In this case, Armenia is
in the focus of attention in the region", he added.
The situation in Iraqi Kurdistan is full of serious consequences
Ruben Safrastian is sure that the latest developments around Iraqi
Kurdistan of the North Iraq are full of serious consequences.
According to him, if Turkey starts a war, it will raise the Kurdish
factor not only in the region, but also in Turkey. The leading
"Justice and development" party has many Kurd members, and in case
of military operations, Turkey will lose part of its support and will
weaken. Besides, the Kurdish "Democratic society" party, registered in
Turkey, appealed Turkey for adding a point about the local autonomy
of Kurdistan. Consequently, according to Safrastian, Turkey feels
the activization of the Kurdish factor not only politically, but also
economically, and it will not perform wide military operations. "Turkey
uses the threats about wide military operations to strengthen its
position in the region and to show the regional countries that it is
a center of power", underlined Ruben Safrastian.
Turkey decreased its efforts to be integrated in EU
Turkey is not only involved in the Middle Eastern policy recently,
but also it finds there the bases for strengthening its position,
according to the Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies,
"Turkish European diplomacy has weakened recently, in this case EU
attitude is not important for Turkey", he said.
Adoption of Resolution 106 is the Armenians' victory
Mr. Safrastian is sure that adoption of Resolution 106 by US House
of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee is the victory of all
Armenians that showed the role of the Armenian factor in the world.
"Armenian factor has its place in the world, and Turkey could only
slow down that process with its menaces", mentioned the Turkologist.
Russia is still the leader in the region
"Russian diplomacy shows intentions in the recent period to recover
the spheres of influences of the former USSR in the Middle East. What
about the present crisis in North Iraq, Russia still shows a waiting
attitude to those incidents. But we should not forget that Russia has
close relations with Kurdish organizations and kept those connections",
announced Mr. Safrastian. According to him, Russia still keeps the
leader's position in the region thanks to the Russian military bases
allocated in Armenia, its wide economic relations, the gas factor in
Armenia and the political connections.
The situation of Georgia will not change anything in the region
The regime of Sahakashvili is greatly supported by the United States,
and the Georgian opposition also doesn't have a well-disposed attitude
towards Russia. In this case if the Georgian opposition can fall down
the regime of Sahakashvili, it will not change the whole geopolitical
situation in the region, according to Ruben Safrastian.
The Islamic factor will not change the regime in Azerbaijan
"Though Azerbaijani authorities and Americans do everything to
weaken the Islamic factor, it becomes stronger mainly thanks to
Islamic extremist representatives. It's not an anti-Americanism,
it's Islamism that, of course, has a strong anti-Americanism. I don't
think that this Islamic factor will change the regime in Azerbaijan",
mentioned Ruben Safrastian.
(AZG Armenian Daily #202, 11-03-07)
http://www.analyst-network.com/article. php?art_id=1170
Ruben Safrastyan
International Analyst Network, NY
Nov 12 2007
SAFRASTYAN SAYS ANKARA LIKELY TO EXPLOAT GENOCIDE RESOLUTION, PURSUE
STRONGER FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey might act on threats made to the United States if the Armenian
Genocide Resolution passes said Tuesday Director of the Institute
of Oriental Studies at the Armenian Academy of Sciences Dr. Ruben
Safrastyan, adding, however, that a Turkish retaliation will not do
much harm to the U.S. "Turkey will evidently launch military operations
in Northern Iraq as a form of revenge," he said, adding that Turkish
Prime Minister Erdogan has already given the go ahead.
"An appropriate draft bill will be approved in the parliament. As
to restricting the U.S. use of Incirlik base and blocking crucial
supply routes to Iraq, I do not suppose Turkey will resort to such
extreme measures," he commented. Passage of the H.Res.106 may lead
Turkey expand its role as a regional power and adopt a more proactive
foreign policy, said Safrastyan.
"Turkey wants to ensure its security at the expense of its neighbors.
This tradition has been maintained since the times of the Ottoman
Empire," he added. Although this resolution is non-binding and
lacks the authority to force the President to use the term genocide,
Dr. Safrastyan said, "Turkey has taken the opportunity to pursue its
own foreign policy," he remarked. (Yerkir, 10-10-07)
ACCORDING TO TURKEY EXPERT, POLITICAL TENSIONS EXPECTED IN USA
"Currently, Turkey cannot do everything it threatens to do. All they
can do is suggesting symbolic steps," Turkey expert Ruben Safrastyan
told a Panorama.am journalist when answering a question as to what
he expects to happen to Armenian-Turkish relations after the passage
of House Resolution No. 106.
We note that yesterday the foreign relations committee of the US
House of Representatives voted 27 for, 21 against in passing the
resolution. In Safrastyan's words, Turkey's parliament will take a
symbolic step and allow their armed forces to enter northern Iraq.
"That is also seen as a step in pressuring the USA," he insisted.
Safrastyan said that he didn't expect the passage of the resolution
to have any major affect on Armenia. "Armenia's budget won't get
larger, and Armenia won't get more foreign aid. We can only be happy
that a large and important government recognized and condemned the
Genocide. We have to be thankful for that," he said.
Safrastyan says he can't say for sure if the resolution will become law
in the end. "The Bush administrations, and especially Condoleezza Rice,
are fighting hard against the resolution. The reality is difficult,
but many are on our side this time," he added.
In any event, the resolution will now be passed on to Nancy Pelosi,
who will present the resolution to the House of Representatives for
discussion. "The House session continues until mid-November," he
said. "We'll have to see if Pelosi will present the resolution in the
current session or wait until after the winter break." (Panorama.am,
10-12-07)
KURDS ARE U.S. REAL ALLIES IN REGION
"The decision of the Turkish parliament to approve incursion into
northern Iraq doesn't mean immediate action. This decision is not
unexpected," Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the RA
Academy of Sciences, Prof. Ruben Safrastyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net
reporter.
"Erdogan's government is free to act and it can launch operations
any moment. I do not think it will be a large-scale incursion. The U.S.
has already expressed discontent about this plan and will go on
pressing. We should not forget that Kurds are U.S. real allies in
the region. Although, judging from Erdogan's statements, Turkey is
ready to wrangle with the U.S.," he said.
October 17, despite U.S. and NATO's warnings, Turkish parliamentarians
Okayed the government's plans on a cross-border operation into
northern Iraq for neutralization of the Kurdistan Workers' Party
rebels. (PanARMENIAN.Net, 10-18-07)
H.RES.106: TURKEY GAINS ITS ENDS FOR LAST TIME
Turkey has gained its ends but it happened for the last time, Director
of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the RA Academy of Sciences,
Prof. Ruben Safrastyan told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter when commenting
on the decision by H.Res.106 leading authors to call for a revised
schedule for the House consideration.
The U.S. refused from vote on H.Res.106 in exchange for Turkey's
promise not to launch war in Iraq, according to him.
"Nevertheless, I think that the resolution will be put on vote and
will be passed during the next Congress session in 2008. Turkey has
exhausted its tools of pressure on the United States," Prof.
Safrastyan said. (PanARMENIAN.Net, 10-26-07)
WILL THERE BE A WAR?
"Turkey seems to ease its will-power to resume a war but anti-Kurdish
sentiments continue to be dominant," Ruben Safrastyan, an expert in
Turkish studies, told a news conference today, speaking about the
situation on Turkish-Iraqi border.
The Turkish expert cannot forecast if there will be a war or not.
However, referring to Turkish media, he said that the final decision
will be reached on November 5, 6 when Turkish Prime Minister Erdoghan
is in USA. Safrastyan believes that Turkey pushes back the European
integration processes in its Middle East politics.
In the words of the expert, Turkish-Iraqi war is full of dangers.
Without doubt, Turkish intentions are strong. Turkey is supported
by the USA. "USA has started to provide intelligence information on
Kurdish Working Party deployments in the mountains of Northern Iraq,"
the expert said referring to the press secretary of Pentagon.
The next danger, according to the speaker, is that in case Turkey
engages in large-scale actions in Iraqi Kurdistan, it will mean that
Turkey engages in aggression against Iraq. The leadership of Iraq
has announced that it will fight against such actions. It means war
is inevitable. (Panorama.am, 11-01-07)
TURKEY USES THREATS TO UNLEASH WAR FOR STRENGTHENING ITS GEOPOLITICAL
POSITION, RUBEN SAFRASTIAN CONSIDERS
Abrupt aggravation of situation in the region, in particular, around
North Iraq and Iran, as well as the fact that Armenian factor starts
playing a bigger role in Turkey's policy requires conducting a precise
policy by the Armenian Foreign Ministry, with taking into consideration
existence of Armenian communities in these countries.
Ruben Safrastian, the Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies
of the National Academy of Sciences, stated at the November 1 press
conference.
In connection with possibility of Turkey's starting large-scale
operations against Iraqi Kurdistan, he mentioned that Turkey is
using threats to unleash a war for the purpose of receiving certain
political dividends. In particular, thanks to these actions Turkey
has already managed to freeze the issue of discussion of Resolution
106 on Armenian Genocide in U.S. Congress.
Besides, Turkey is using these threats to demonstrate its strength
in the region and to prove that it is one of the most powerful states.
"Through threats to start large-scale operations in North Iraq Turkey
is trying to strengthen its geopolitical position in the region",
R. Safrastian stated. (Noyan Tapan, 11-01-07)
ANKARA USES KURDS AND WAR THREATS FOR STRENGTHENING POSITIONS IN REGION
"The situation in the region is extremely tensed and complicated
by three factors: the Turkey-Iraq collision, Iran's nuclear program
and strengthening of Turkey's role in the region. Armenia can't be
indifferent about it," Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Institute
of the Oriental Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan.
"There are Armenian communities in all Middle East states and the RA
Foreign Ministry should closely watch the developments. It Turkey
launches a major cross-border operation in northern Iraq it will
inevitably lead to greater tensions. The PKK is menacing Ankara. In
July 2007, the ruling AKP used Kurds for gaining a victory. As result,
1/3 of Turkish MPs are ethnic Kurds. If the situation deteriorates
AKP will lose a part of mandates," he said.
"War can deliver a heavy blow on the economy of southwest Turkey. The
commodity turnover between Turkey and northern Iraq makes $2,5 -
3 billion with 200 thousand people engaged in business. Moreover,
war would strain social problems in Turkey," he said. "With strong
anti-Kurdish propaganda, Ankara uses Kurds and war threats to
strengthen positions in the region." (PanARMENIAN.Net, 11-01-07)
TURKEY DOESN'T SEEK AFTER EU MEMBERSHIP ANY LONGER?
"Turkey has restrained its diplomatic stride toward the European
Union recently," Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Institute of the
Oriental Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan. Turkey longs
for domination in the Middle East but not in Europe, according to him.
"Position of leading European states, including France which doesn't
want to see it in the EU, is an important factor here. Furthermore,
support for the European way of development wanes in Turkey," he said.
The EU-Turkey entry talks opened in October 2005, although the bid
was submitted in 1965. The Cypriot issue remains the major stumbling
block for Turkish membership. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has
numerously stated that 'Turkey has no place in Europe'. Manuel
Barroso, the President of the European Commission, shares this
opinion. (PanARMENIAN.Net, 11-01-07)
RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY ATTEMPTS TO REVIVE USSR POLICY IN MIDDLE EAST
"The Russian diplomacy attempts to revive the USSR policy in Middle
East, Dr Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the Institute of Oriental
Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan.
"Russia is demonstrating wait-and-see attitude but the USSR used to
support Kurds. Do not forget that Masoud Barzani's father was a KGB
agent and the old ties were certainly maintained," he said adding
that Russia's line in the South Caucasus is still firm.
"Russia has the 102nd military base in Armenia. It has good relations
with Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the U.S. is determined to push
Russia out of the region," Dr Safrastyan said. (PanARMENIAN.Net,
11-01-07)
HAVING NO GEOPOLITICAL IMPORTANCE, GUAM WAS FORMED TO RUIN CIS
"Georgia's domestic tensions will not change the balance of forces in
the region, just as GUAM activities. Having no geopolitical importance,
GUAM was formed to ruin the CIS," Ruben Safrastyan, Director of the
Institute of Oriental Studies, told a news conference in Yerevan.
"The Saakashvili regime is alive thanks to U.S. financial assistance.
Even if it collapses nothing will change in Georgia," he said.
When commenting on closure of U.S. and British Embassies in
Azerbaijan, Dr. Safrastyan said, "The Islamic factor is gaining
weight in Azerbaijan. This is not anti-Americanism, this is radical
Islamism. Although Baku's attempts to weaken it prove fruitless,
wahhabits have no influence on political regime in the republic yet."
(PanARMENIAN.Net, 11-01-07)
ARMENIA IS IN THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE REGION
Turkologist, Director of NAA (National Academy of Armenia) Institute
of Oriental Studies Ruben Safrastian was the guest of "Hayatsk"
club on Wednesday. He touched upon the three factors in the region,
mentioning that the Armenian factor has gained a significant role in
the world and especially Turkish policy. "In this case, Armenia is
in the focus of attention in the region", he added.
The situation in Iraqi Kurdistan is full of serious consequences
Ruben Safrastian is sure that the latest developments around Iraqi
Kurdistan of the North Iraq are full of serious consequences.
According to him, if Turkey starts a war, it will raise the Kurdish
factor not only in the region, but also in Turkey. The leading
"Justice and development" party has many Kurd members, and in case
of military operations, Turkey will lose part of its support and will
weaken. Besides, the Kurdish "Democratic society" party, registered in
Turkey, appealed Turkey for adding a point about the local autonomy
of Kurdistan. Consequently, according to Safrastian, Turkey feels
the activization of the Kurdish factor not only politically, but also
economically, and it will not perform wide military operations. "Turkey
uses the threats about wide military operations to strengthen its
position in the region and to show the regional countries that it is
a center of power", underlined Ruben Safrastian.
Turkey decreased its efforts to be integrated in EU
Turkey is not only involved in the Middle Eastern policy recently,
but also it finds there the bases for strengthening its position,
according to the Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies,
"Turkish European diplomacy has weakened recently, in this case EU
attitude is not important for Turkey", he said.
Adoption of Resolution 106 is the Armenians' victory
Mr. Safrastian is sure that adoption of Resolution 106 by US House
of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee is the victory of all
Armenians that showed the role of the Armenian factor in the world.
"Armenian factor has its place in the world, and Turkey could only
slow down that process with its menaces", mentioned the Turkologist.
Russia is still the leader in the region
"Russian diplomacy shows intentions in the recent period to recover
the spheres of influences of the former USSR in the Middle East. What
about the present crisis in North Iraq, Russia still shows a waiting
attitude to those incidents. But we should not forget that Russia has
close relations with Kurdish organizations and kept those connections",
announced Mr. Safrastian. According to him, Russia still keeps the
leader's position in the region thanks to the Russian military bases
allocated in Armenia, its wide economic relations, the gas factor in
Armenia and the political connections.
The situation of Georgia will not change anything in the region
The regime of Sahakashvili is greatly supported by the United States,
and the Georgian opposition also doesn't have a well-disposed attitude
towards Russia. In this case if the Georgian opposition can fall down
the regime of Sahakashvili, it will not change the whole geopolitical
situation in the region, according to Ruben Safrastian.
The Islamic factor will not change the regime in Azerbaijan
"Though Azerbaijani authorities and Americans do everything to
weaken the Islamic factor, it becomes stronger mainly thanks to
Islamic extremist representatives. It's not an anti-Americanism,
it's Islamism that, of course, has a strong anti-Americanism. I don't
think that this Islamic factor will change the regime in Azerbaijan",
mentioned Ruben Safrastian.
(AZG Armenian Daily #202, 11-03-07)
http://www.analyst-network.com/article. php?art_id=1170