Tweet
ON THE IMPORTANCE OF TACTICAL FLEXIBILITY
Armen Tsatouryan
Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Nov 27 2007
Armenia
As we know, during the most recent rally, ex-President L. Ter-Petrosyan
advanced an "original" program aimed at the consolidation of the
most influential political forces of Armenia, prior to the February
19 elections. In return, he anticipated them to support his candidacy
during the elections and gave a promise to officiate for no more than
3 years and then give them the "green light".
At first sight, this seemed to be an invulnerable political technology,
since addressing to the leaders of Armenia's more influential political
forces, i.e. Arthur Baghdasaryan, Artashes Geghamyan, Hrant Markaryan,
Vazgen Manoukyan and Raffi Hovhannisyan, Mr. Ter-Petrosyan modestly
placed himself at their disposal. "Just use us as a tool for getting
rid of the criminal administration and exercising your legitimate
right to striving for power. This will require that you remain patent
for no more than 3 years and maybe even less."
But now 11 years have passed after the October 16 rally, and despite
the titanic efforts of the advocacy machine supporting the Armenian
pan-National Movement, none of the above-mentioned leaders has given
a positive answer to the ex-Presidents proposal which seems strictly
attractive at first sight. Moreover, all the parties pointed out by
Mr. Ter-Petrosyan have actually expressed determination to run for
election with a candidate of their own.
The only exception among them is "Heritage" and its leader Raffi
Hovhannisyan, who cannot advance his candidacy on grounds of not
having 10 years' citizenship. This, however, doesn't mean that after
receiving the rejection of his appeal on changing the term of his
citizenship, Raffi Hovhannisyan and his party will automatically join
Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's team.
However, even if in Raffi Hovhannisyan's case we deal with a singular
exception, this won't change the general panorama because, as it is
common to say, "An exception comes to confirm the regularity". And
the regularity is that Mr. Ter-Petosyan didn't manage to consolidate
the influential political forces of Armenia and couldn't but rely on
the insignificant support of some parties, deprived of reputation long
ago. They include but are not limited to the People's Party of Armenia,
"Republic".
This is Mr. Ter-Petrpsyan's third, more outstanding failure, after the
unsuccessful attempts of attracting the state-administrative machine
and businessmen, and it testifies to the skid of his persistent steps
aimed at turning the pre-election situation to his side.
At first sight Mr. Ter-Petrosyan seemed to be playing skillfully in
the "trench struggle"; however such impression slowly begins to fade
away in the course of time. More than one month has passed after his
political claim, but ever since no serious turning point has been
observed on our political arena.
Moreover, the fact that each of the influential political forces of
Armenia will run for election with a candidate of its own will upset
the ex-President's political calculations still further. The reason
is obvious: although Mr. Ter-Petrosyan has promised not to enter into
a debate with the other candidates and forces, the latter reject his
"peace-loving goals" and, in order to have a place in the sun, they
are going to lead a struggle not only against the pro-Government
candidate but also against L. Ter-Petrosyan himself.
So, the ex-President can neither keep an endless silence nor accept
the new challenges.
We have no doubt that before the successive rally appointed on December
8 the ex-President is recording the obvious tendency of the downfall
of his own chances. Finding himself surrounded by the pro-Government
candidate and 10 other pretenders, Ter-Petrosyan has already lost
the chance of making any maneuvres. To attract the pro-Opposition
electorate, he has to prove on December 8 that all the candidates,
apart from S. Sargsyan and himself, are fictitious henchmen.
Or, feeling the inevitability of failure, Ter-Petrosyan will offer
a new, more "original" formula for consolidation.
However, considering that the previous "original" solutions had no
impact on the influential forces represented on the political arena,
and governing the country for a year more or less is not essential
for the "father of the Armenian democracy", we offer L. Ter-Petrosyan
to reduce his ambitions in a more consistent manner.
Thus, if on November 16 Mr. Ter-Petrosyan promised the other political
forces to govern the country for no more than 3 years in return for
their consolidating around him, on December 8 and then, each time
during subsequent rallies expected in January and February, he will
reduce this time-limit by one year and, on the eve of February 19 -
withdraw his own candidacy, as the "term of governance" he has promised
will have expired by that time.
Armen Tsatouryan
Hayots Ashkharh Daily
Nov 27 2007
Armenia
As we know, during the most recent rally, ex-President L. Ter-Petrosyan
advanced an "original" program aimed at the consolidation of the
most influential political forces of Armenia, prior to the February
19 elections. In return, he anticipated them to support his candidacy
during the elections and gave a promise to officiate for no more than
3 years and then give them the "green light".
At first sight, this seemed to be an invulnerable political technology,
since addressing to the leaders of Armenia's more influential political
forces, i.e. Arthur Baghdasaryan, Artashes Geghamyan, Hrant Markaryan,
Vazgen Manoukyan and Raffi Hovhannisyan, Mr. Ter-Petrosyan modestly
placed himself at their disposal. "Just use us as a tool for getting
rid of the criminal administration and exercising your legitimate
right to striving for power. This will require that you remain patent
for no more than 3 years and maybe even less."
But now 11 years have passed after the October 16 rally, and despite
the titanic efforts of the advocacy machine supporting the Armenian
pan-National Movement, none of the above-mentioned leaders has given
a positive answer to the ex-Presidents proposal which seems strictly
attractive at first sight. Moreover, all the parties pointed out by
Mr. Ter-Petrosyan have actually expressed determination to run for
election with a candidate of their own.
The only exception among them is "Heritage" and its leader Raffi
Hovhannisyan, who cannot advance his candidacy on grounds of not
having 10 years' citizenship. This, however, doesn't mean that after
receiving the rejection of his appeal on changing the term of his
citizenship, Raffi Hovhannisyan and his party will automatically join
Mr. Ter-Petrosyan's team.
However, even if in Raffi Hovhannisyan's case we deal with a singular
exception, this won't change the general panorama because, as it is
common to say, "An exception comes to confirm the regularity". And
the regularity is that Mr. Ter-Petosyan didn't manage to consolidate
the influential political forces of Armenia and couldn't but rely on
the insignificant support of some parties, deprived of reputation long
ago. They include but are not limited to the People's Party of Armenia,
"Republic".
This is Mr. Ter-Petrpsyan's third, more outstanding failure, after the
unsuccessful attempts of attracting the state-administrative machine
and businessmen, and it testifies to the skid of his persistent steps
aimed at turning the pre-election situation to his side.
At first sight Mr. Ter-Petrosyan seemed to be playing skillfully in
the "trench struggle"; however such impression slowly begins to fade
away in the course of time. More than one month has passed after his
political claim, but ever since no serious turning point has been
observed on our political arena.
Moreover, the fact that each of the influential political forces of
Armenia will run for election with a candidate of its own will upset
the ex-President's political calculations still further. The reason
is obvious: although Mr. Ter-Petrosyan has promised not to enter into
a debate with the other candidates and forces, the latter reject his
"peace-loving goals" and, in order to have a place in the sun, they
are going to lead a struggle not only against the pro-Government
candidate but also against L. Ter-Petrosyan himself.
So, the ex-President can neither keep an endless silence nor accept
the new challenges.
We have no doubt that before the successive rally appointed on December
8 the ex-President is recording the obvious tendency of the downfall
of his own chances. Finding himself surrounded by the pro-Government
candidate and 10 other pretenders, Ter-Petrosyan has already lost
the chance of making any maneuvres. To attract the pro-Opposition
electorate, he has to prove on December 8 that all the candidates,
apart from S. Sargsyan and himself, are fictitious henchmen.
Or, feeling the inevitability of failure, Ter-Petrosyan will offer
a new, more "original" formula for consolidation.
However, considering that the previous "original" solutions had no
impact on the influential forces represented on the political arena,
and governing the country for a year more or less is not essential
for the "father of the Armenian democracy", we offer L. Ter-Petrosyan
to reduce his ambitions in a more consistent manner.
Thus, if on November 16 Mr. Ter-Petrosyan promised the other political
forces to govern the country for no more than 3 years in return for
their consolidating around him, on December 8 and then, each time
during subsequent rallies expected in January and February, he will
reduce this time-limit by one year and, on the eve of February 19 -
withdraw his own candidacy, as the "term of governance" he has promised
will have expired by that time.