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PELOSI HOLDS THE KEY TO ARMENIAN RESOLUTION
The New Anatolian, Turkey
Oct 11 2007
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi holds the key to
the fate of a U.S. congressional resolution that recognizes the attacks
on Armenians at the turn of last century as and act of genocide.
If she allows the resolution for a vote it is a foregone conclusion
that U.S. representatives will approve it. But she can stall it or
even shelve it.
Experts say the bill would not have even reached the Committee of
Foreign Relations stage if Pelosi had opposed it. But since then
things have changed and pressure from Turkey and all other quarters
may force Pelosi to think twice.
Pelosi who is at odds with the White House on a wide range of issues
topped with Iraq is apparently in no mood to listen to appeals from
the White House on this resolution.
But some Jewish groups as well as some Democrats close to Turkey may
help Pelosi see the other side of the coin.
What is clear is that the strong Armenian lobby managed to convince
Pelosi to support the resolution and will also be pushing her to keep
her promises.
LAST DITCH EFFORTS
As the Congress prepared to act on the bill Turkey was making a
last ditch effort in Washington to convince U.S. lawmakers to reject
the resolution.
The House of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee planned
a vote late Wednesday on the measure that is opposed by the Bush
administration.
On Tuesday, President Abdullah Gul warned of "serious troubles in
the two countries' relations" if the measure is approved.
In Washington, Turkish members of parliament made their case on the
genocide resolution in meetings with members of the committee that
will consider the genocide resolution.
"I have been trying to warn the lawmakers not to make a historic
mistake," said Egemen Bagis, the Deputy Chairman of the ruling Justice
and Development Party and a close foreign policy adviser to Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
A measure of the potential problem came in a warning the U.S. Embassy
in Ankara issued Tuesday to U.S. citizens in Turkey, a key NATO ally.
"If, despite the administration's concerted efforts against this
resolution, it passes committee and makes its way to the floor of the
House for debate and a possible vote, there could be a reaction in the
form of demonstrations and other manifestations of anti-Americanism
throughout Turkey," the statement said.
Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian
Affairs Dan Fried qualified the resolution as "a mistake", saying
that President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as well as
other officials from the administration personally contacted members
of the Foreign Affairs Committee at the House of Representatives.
"We are against the bill and we are working for it not to pass. We
think that the bill is a mistake and there is nothing good the bill
can produce," Fried told the Anatolian News Agency.
"I hope that this bill will be rejected at the committee meeting and I
hope that Turkish-Armenian relations strongly improves for the better,
Fried said.
The basic dispute involves the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians
in Ottoman Turkey from 1915-17, an event which the Armenians claim
was an act of genocide.
Turkey refuses to call it genocide, saying the death toll has been
inflated, and insisting that the Armenians killed were victims of
civil war and unrest as the 600-year-old Ottoman Empire collapsed
before the birth of modern Turkey in 1923. Turkey has called for a
conference of scholars to study the Ottoman archives and decide if
the events amounted to genocide. Armenia has rejected this.
STRONG ARMENIAN LOBBY
Armenian-American interest groups also have been rallying supporters
in the large diaspora community to pressure lawmakers to make sure that
a successful committee vote leads to consideration by the full House.
The bill seemed to have enough support on the committee for passage,
but the majority was slight and some backers said they feared that
Turkish pressure would narrow it further. Most Republicans were
expected to vote against the resolution.
On Tuesday, Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian Assembly
of America, sought to shore up support in letters to the committee's
chairman, Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos of California and its ranking
Republican member, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida.
"We have a unique opportunity in this Congress, while there are still
survivors of the Armenian Genocide living among us, to irrevocably
and unequivocally reaffirm this fact of history," he said.
The head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Catholics Karekin II,
was to give the opening invocation to the House's session ahead of
the committee vote Wednesday.
Supporters of the measure have been trying to counteract Turkish
threats with arguments that Turkish-American relations were too
important to Turkey for the Erdogan government to scuttle.
TURKEY MEANS BUSINESS
But Turkey's warnings were underscored by its movement toward an
incursion into Iraq, which should it occur could seriously upset U.S.
efforts to stabilize the country.
Bagis said the resolution would make it hard for his government to
continue close cooperation with the United States and resist calls
from the public to go after the Kurdish militants rebels who have
mounted deadly attacks on Turkish soldiers in recent weeks.
Turkey has previously said it would prefer that the United States
and its Iraqi Kurd allies in northern Iraq crack down on the PKK.
"If the Armenian genocide resolution passes, then I think that the
possibility of a cross-border operation is very high," said Ihsan
Dagi, a professor of International Relations at Middle East Technical
University in Ankara, the Turkish capital.
The United States reiterated on Tuesday its warnings against an
incursion.
"If they have a problem, they need to work together to resolve it,
and I'm not sure that unilateral incursions are the way to go,"
U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
Many in the United States also fear that a public backlash in Turkey
could lead to restrictions on crucial supply routes through Turkey
to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the closure of Incirlik, a strategic
air base in Turkey used by the U.S. Air Force.
Bagis, a member of the Turkish Parliament, underscored that
possibility.
"Let us not forget that 75 percent of all supplies to your troops in
Iraq go through Turkey," he said.
After France voted last year to make it a crime to deny the killings
were genocide, the Turkish government ended its military ties with
that country.
In related development Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan warned
that the passage of the resolution could harm Turkey's relations
with Israel.
"If things go wrong in Washington, besides Turkish-American relations,
at certain points Turkish-Israeli relations will be affected as well,"
Babacan told Israeli daily Jerusalem Post during his recent visit to
the country.
Babacan also recalled that Turkey had offered to set up a joint
commission of Turkish and Armenian historians to study the incidents
of 1915.
"This issue cannot be decided by 'yes' or 'no' votes of the
parliamentarians and no parliament can write the history by mere
political decisions," Babacan said.
The New Anatolian, Turkey
Oct 11 2007
U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi holds the key to
the fate of a U.S. congressional resolution that recognizes the attacks
on Armenians at the turn of last century as and act of genocide.
If she allows the resolution for a vote it is a foregone conclusion
that U.S. representatives will approve it. But she can stall it or
even shelve it.
Experts say the bill would not have even reached the Committee of
Foreign Relations stage if Pelosi had opposed it. But since then
things have changed and pressure from Turkey and all other quarters
may force Pelosi to think twice.
Pelosi who is at odds with the White House on a wide range of issues
topped with Iraq is apparently in no mood to listen to appeals from
the White House on this resolution.
But some Jewish groups as well as some Democrats close to Turkey may
help Pelosi see the other side of the coin.
What is clear is that the strong Armenian lobby managed to convince
Pelosi to support the resolution and will also be pushing her to keep
her promises.
LAST DITCH EFFORTS
As the Congress prepared to act on the bill Turkey was making a
last ditch effort in Washington to convince U.S. lawmakers to reject
the resolution.
The House of Representatives' Foreign Affairs Committee planned
a vote late Wednesday on the measure that is opposed by the Bush
administration.
On Tuesday, President Abdullah Gul warned of "serious troubles in
the two countries' relations" if the measure is approved.
In Washington, Turkish members of parliament made their case on the
genocide resolution in meetings with members of the committee that
will consider the genocide resolution.
"I have been trying to warn the lawmakers not to make a historic
mistake," said Egemen Bagis, the Deputy Chairman of the ruling Justice
and Development Party and a close foreign policy adviser to Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
A measure of the potential problem came in a warning the U.S. Embassy
in Ankara issued Tuesday to U.S. citizens in Turkey, a key NATO ally.
"If, despite the administration's concerted efforts against this
resolution, it passes committee and makes its way to the floor of the
House for debate and a possible vote, there could be a reaction in the
form of demonstrations and other manifestations of anti-Americanism
throughout Turkey," the statement said.
Meanwhile, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian
Affairs Dan Fried qualified the resolution as "a mistake", saying
that President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as well as
other officials from the administration personally contacted members
of the Foreign Affairs Committee at the House of Representatives.
"We are against the bill and we are working for it not to pass. We
think that the bill is a mistake and there is nothing good the bill
can produce," Fried told the Anatolian News Agency.
"I hope that this bill will be rejected at the committee meeting and I
hope that Turkish-Armenian relations strongly improves for the better,
Fried said.
The basic dispute involves the killing of up to 1.5 million Armenians
in Ottoman Turkey from 1915-17, an event which the Armenians claim
was an act of genocide.
Turkey refuses to call it genocide, saying the death toll has been
inflated, and insisting that the Armenians killed were victims of
civil war and unrest as the 600-year-old Ottoman Empire collapsed
before the birth of modern Turkey in 1923. Turkey has called for a
conference of scholars to study the Ottoman archives and decide if
the events amounted to genocide. Armenia has rejected this.
STRONG ARMENIAN LOBBY
Armenian-American interest groups also have been rallying supporters
in the large diaspora community to pressure lawmakers to make sure that
a successful committee vote leads to consideration by the full House.
The bill seemed to have enough support on the committee for passage,
but the majority was slight and some backers said they feared that
Turkish pressure would narrow it further. Most Republicans were
expected to vote against the resolution.
On Tuesday, Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian Assembly
of America, sought to shore up support in letters to the committee's
chairman, Democratic Rep. Tom Lantos of California and its ranking
Republican member, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida.
"We have a unique opportunity in this Congress, while there are still
survivors of the Armenian Genocide living among us, to irrevocably
and unequivocally reaffirm this fact of history," he said.
The head of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Catholics Karekin II,
was to give the opening invocation to the House's session ahead of
the committee vote Wednesday.
Supporters of the measure have been trying to counteract Turkish
threats with arguments that Turkish-American relations were too
important to Turkey for the Erdogan government to scuttle.
TURKEY MEANS BUSINESS
But Turkey's warnings were underscored by its movement toward an
incursion into Iraq, which should it occur could seriously upset U.S.
efforts to stabilize the country.
Bagis said the resolution would make it hard for his government to
continue close cooperation with the United States and resist calls
from the public to go after the Kurdish militants rebels who have
mounted deadly attacks on Turkish soldiers in recent weeks.
Turkey has previously said it would prefer that the United States
and its Iraqi Kurd allies in northern Iraq crack down on the PKK.
"If the Armenian genocide resolution passes, then I think that the
possibility of a cross-border operation is very high," said Ihsan
Dagi, a professor of International Relations at Middle East Technical
University in Ankara, the Turkish capital.
The United States reiterated on Tuesday its warnings against an
incursion.
"If they have a problem, they need to work together to resolve it,
and I'm not sure that unilateral incursions are the way to go,"
U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.
Many in the United States also fear that a public backlash in Turkey
could lead to restrictions on crucial supply routes through Turkey
to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the closure of Incirlik, a strategic
air base in Turkey used by the U.S. Air Force.
Bagis, a member of the Turkish Parliament, underscored that
possibility.
"Let us not forget that 75 percent of all supplies to your troops in
Iraq go through Turkey," he said.
After France voted last year to make it a crime to deny the killings
were genocide, the Turkish government ended its military ties with
that country.
In related development Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan warned
that the passage of the resolution could harm Turkey's relations
with Israel.
"If things go wrong in Washington, besides Turkish-American relations,
at certain points Turkish-Israeli relations will be affected as well,"
Babacan told Israeli daily Jerusalem Post during his recent visit to
the country.
Babacan also recalled that Turkey had offered to set up a joint
commission of Turkish and Armenian historians to study the incidents
of 1915.
"This issue cannot be decided by 'yes' or 'no' votes of the
parliamentarians and no parliament can write the history by mere
political decisions," Babacan said.