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KARABAKH CONFLICT DEVELOPS IN MIDDLE EAST SCENARIO - AZERI EXPERTS
Zerkalo, Azerbaijan
Oct 12 2007
Azerbaijani experts say that the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over the breakaway region of Nagornyy Karabakh is developing in
accordance with the Middle East scenario or the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, as peace talks have been lasting for years without any
results. Russian-language Zerkalo newspaper quoted some experts
participating in a roundtable on the conflict as saying that peace
talks will continue at least for a couple of more years.
"A serious breakthrough in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict will hardly be made before presidential elections in
Armenia and Azerbaijan" in 2008, the newspaper said. The following
is the text of an unattributed report in Zerkalo newspaper headlined
"The Karabakh conflict develops in accordance with the Middle East
scenario say experts at a closed-door roundtable on the settlement
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict". Subheadings have been inserted
editorially.
Another closed-door roundtable of experts and political analysts
on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which was
organized by the South Caucasus research centre and Analitika.az
website, has recently taken place. This time experts discussed the
topic called "prospects for the development of the settlement of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in accordance with the Middle
East scenario".
The urgency of this issue proceeds from the statements of most
representatives of international organizations saying that a serious
breakthrough in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict
will hardly be made before the presidential elections in Armenia and
Azerbaijan [in 2008]. This situation has been repeated before. Taking
into consideration the facts that Azerbaijan will see municipal
elections in 2009 and parliamentary elections in 2010 following the
presidential election scheduled for 2008, it is not ruled out that
the break in peace talks may continue for two years.
In view of the abovementioned facts experts were requested to answer
the following questions: 1. How real is it that the peace talks on
the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy
Karabakh will last for many years like those on the Middle East
[Israeli-Palestinian] conflict? 2. How much does the delay in the
resolution of the conflict for many years meet the interests of the
conflicting parties, that is, Azerbaijan and Armenia? 3. How much does
it meet the interests of the major mediators, which are the co-chairs
of the OSCE Minsk Group [a team of mediators set up in 1992 to mediate
a peaceful resolution], specifically Russia, the USA and the European
Union? 4. How capable is the OSCE Minsk Group in the current format
to achieve a peace deal that would be acceptable to all the parties to
the conflict? 5. Does the formula "the co-chairs and the international
community will support any solution that would be acceptable to all
the parties to the conflict" contribute to the soonest signing of a
peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan? 6. If Azerbaijan is really
interested in speeding up a peaceful solution to the conflict, is not
it the time for Baku to take the conflict to the UN Security Council
so that the council can identify clear frameworks for the settlement
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the mandate for the mediators
of the OSCE Minsk Group on the basis of international law?
Breakthrough to be hardly made
Most of the experts believe that the likelihood of a breakthrough
in the peace talks in 2007-2008 is equal to zero. Nevertheless, the
experts did not rule out that a fundamental change in the geopolitical
situation in the region may force Moscow or Washington to put the
issue of the settlement of the conflict toughly to Azerbaijan or
Armenia. It was noted that this option may have both positive and
negative consequences for the sides of the conflict.
Everything will depend on which party the great powers that have
geopolitical interests in the region will use to settle the conflict.
Experts believe that this option is unlikely, but say that a window
will be opened for a short time in 2009 for intensifying peace talks
on the resolution of the conflict.
No military action expected
Experts do not think that a resumption of full-scale military
operations is likely in the forthcoming eighteen months, at least
before the presidential election in Azerbaijan. However, even in
this case it is not excluded that the aggravation of the situation
and a resumption of large-scale military hostilities after a certain
geopolitical situation takes shape in the region will fully meet the
interests of Russia. In this scenario Moscow may do any provocation
to make the sides of the conflict resume war.
Experts say that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is already
developing in accordance with the Middle East scenario. It is
impossible to achieve compromises between the parties to the conflict,
while a military solution does not meet the interests of the USA, first
of all. That is why the settlement of the conflict has been handed over
to the OSCE, which has no real leverage to solve the conflict at all.
Russia not interested in solution
In the meantime, the unanimous opinion of the experts is that Russia is
not interested in the settlement of the conflict since it may actually
lose leverage to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan, while the USA is
interested in the resolution of the conflict, but tries to do it more
at the expense of Azerbaijan. Experts say that the development of
the settlement process in accordance with the Middle East scenario is
totally contradictory to the national interests of both Azerbaijan and
Armenia. The formula "time is working in our favour", which is largely
promoted in Azerbaijan and Armenia, is deprived of any logic. At the
current stage the region is of interest to Western powers, first of
all the USA, as a source and corridor of transportation of energy
resources. However, this situation is not going to last forever.
Most of the experts said with regret that, as strange as it may seem,
the current "no peace no war" situation meets the interests of the
ruling elites both in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
OSCE incapable of solving conflict
Seven versus four experts believe that the OSCE Minsk Group with
its present mandate and format is incapable of achieving a peaceful
solution to the conflict. However, it was stressed that it is
hardly ever possible to create a different format that would be more
operational under the current circumstances.
Most of the experts (except two) do not think that the formula "the
co-chairs and the international community will support any solution
that would be acceptable to all the parties to the conflict" contribute
to the soonest signing of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan
because the sides can not reach agreement on the status of Nagornyy
Karabakh. But agreement on this issue could be an ideal option since
it could deprive the great powers which have geopolitical interests
in the region, first of all Russia, of possibilities to manipulate
the situation on the ground.
Therefore, the experts believe that the status of Nagornyy Karabakh
should be determined at a later stage at the Minsk conference, as was
originally envisioned in the relevant resolutions of the OSCE and UN.
Taking conflict to UN
Finally, the majority of the experts (six versus five) think that it
is appropriate to take the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict to the UN Security Council and other international
organizations. However, some of the experts believe that this will not
result in any actual output because the states which are represented
in the OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, the USA and France) occupy the seats
in the UN Security Council with the right to veto and they are not
ready yet to identify their unanimous positions on the settlement of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
It should also be noted that the participants in this permanent
roundtable were such experts and political analysts as Arif Yunusov,
Arastun Oruclu, Ilqar Mammadov, Zardust Alizada, Rasim Musabayov,
Sahin Rzayev, Nair Aliyev, Azad Isazada, Casur Sumaranli, Alakbar
Mammadov and Uzeyir Cafarov. The permanent presenter at the roundtable
is a political observer of Zerkalo newspaper, Rauf Mirqadirov.
Zerkalo, Azerbaijan
Oct 12 2007
Azerbaijani experts say that the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia over the breakaway region of Nagornyy Karabakh is developing in
accordance with the Middle East scenario or the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict, as peace talks have been lasting for years without any
results. Russian-language Zerkalo newspaper quoted some experts
participating in a roundtable on the conflict as saying that peace
talks will continue at least for a couple of more years.
"A serious breakthrough in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict will hardly be made before presidential elections in
Armenia and Azerbaijan" in 2008, the newspaper said. The following
is the text of an unattributed report in Zerkalo newspaper headlined
"The Karabakh conflict develops in accordance with the Middle East
scenario say experts at a closed-door roundtable on the settlement
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict". Subheadings have been inserted
editorially.
Another closed-door roundtable of experts and political analysts
on the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which was
organized by the South Caucasus research centre and Analitika.az
website, has recently taken place. This time experts discussed the
topic called "prospects for the development of the settlement of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict in accordance with the Middle
East scenario".
The urgency of this issue proceeds from the statements of most
representatives of international organizations saying that a serious
breakthrough in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict
will hardly be made before the presidential elections in Armenia and
Azerbaijan [in 2008]. This situation has been repeated before. Taking
into consideration the facts that Azerbaijan will see municipal
elections in 2009 and parliamentary elections in 2010 following the
presidential election scheduled for 2008, it is not ruled out that
the break in peace talks may continue for two years.
In view of the abovementioned facts experts were requested to answer
the following questions: 1. How real is it that the peace talks on
the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagornyy
Karabakh will last for many years like those on the Middle East
[Israeli-Palestinian] conflict? 2. How much does the delay in the
resolution of the conflict for many years meet the interests of the
conflicting parties, that is, Azerbaijan and Armenia? 3. How much does
it meet the interests of the major mediators, which are the co-chairs
of the OSCE Minsk Group [a team of mediators set up in 1992 to mediate
a peaceful resolution], specifically Russia, the USA and the European
Union? 4. How capable is the OSCE Minsk Group in the current format
to achieve a peace deal that would be acceptable to all the parties to
the conflict? 5. Does the formula "the co-chairs and the international
community will support any solution that would be acceptable to all
the parties to the conflict" contribute to the soonest signing of a
peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan? 6. If Azerbaijan is really
interested in speeding up a peaceful solution to the conflict, is not
it the time for Baku to take the conflict to the UN Security Council
so that the council can identify clear frameworks for the settlement
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and the mandate for the mediators
of the OSCE Minsk Group on the basis of international law?
Breakthrough to be hardly made
Most of the experts believe that the likelihood of a breakthrough
in the peace talks in 2007-2008 is equal to zero. Nevertheless, the
experts did not rule out that a fundamental change in the geopolitical
situation in the region may force Moscow or Washington to put the
issue of the settlement of the conflict toughly to Azerbaijan or
Armenia. It was noted that this option may have both positive and
negative consequences for the sides of the conflict.
Everything will depend on which party the great powers that have
geopolitical interests in the region will use to settle the conflict.
Experts believe that this option is unlikely, but say that a window
will be opened for a short time in 2009 for intensifying peace talks
on the resolution of the conflict.
No military action expected
Experts do not think that a resumption of full-scale military
operations is likely in the forthcoming eighteen months, at least
before the presidential election in Azerbaijan. However, even in
this case it is not excluded that the aggravation of the situation
and a resumption of large-scale military hostilities after a certain
geopolitical situation takes shape in the region will fully meet the
interests of Russia. In this scenario Moscow may do any provocation
to make the sides of the conflict resume war.
Experts say that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is already
developing in accordance with the Middle East scenario. It is
impossible to achieve compromises between the parties to the conflict,
while a military solution does not meet the interests of the USA, first
of all. That is why the settlement of the conflict has been handed over
to the OSCE, which has no real leverage to solve the conflict at all.
Russia not interested in solution
In the meantime, the unanimous opinion of the experts is that Russia is
not interested in the settlement of the conflict since it may actually
lose leverage to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan, while the USA is
interested in the resolution of the conflict, but tries to do it more
at the expense of Azerbaijan. Experts say that the development of
the settlement process in accordance with the Middle East scenario is
totally contradictory to the national interests of both Azerbaijan and
Armenia. The formula "time is working in our favour", which is largely
promoted in Azerbaijan and Armenia, is deprived of any logic. At the
current stage the region is of interest to Western powers, first of
all the USA, as a source and corridor of transportation of energy
resources. However, this situation is not going to last forever.
Most of the experts said with regret that, as strange as it may seem,
the current "no peace no war" situation meets the interests of the
ruling elites both in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
OSCE incapable of solving conflict
Seven versus four experts believe that the OSCE Minsk Group with
its present mandate and format is incapable of achieving a peaceful
solution to the conflict. However, it was stressed that it is
hardly ever possible to create a different format that would be more
operational under the current circumstances.
Most of the experts (except two) do not think that the formula "the
co-chairs and the international community will support any solution
that would be acceptable to all the parties to the conflict" contribute
to the soonest signing of a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan
because the sides can not reach agreement on the status of Nagornyy
Karabakh. But agreement on this issue could be an ideal option since
it could deprive the great powers which have geopolitical interests
in the region, first of all Russia, of possibilities to manipulate
the situation on the ground.
Therefore, the experts believe that the status of Nagornyy Karabakh
should be determined at a later stage at the Minsk conference, as was
originally envisioned in the relevant resolutions of the OSCE and UN.
Taking conflict to UN
Finally, the majority of the experts (six versus five) think that it
is appropriate to take the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict to the UN Security Council and other international
organizations. However, some of the experts believe that this will not
result in any actual output because the states which are represented
in the OSCE Minsk Group (Russia, the USA and France) occupy the seats
in the UN Security Council with the right to veto and they are not
ready yet to identify their unanimous positions on the settlement of
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
It should also be noted that the participants in this permanent
roundtable were such experts and political analysts as Arif Yunusov,
Arastun Oruclu, Ilqar Mammadov, Zardust Alizada, Rasim Musabayov,
Sahin Rzayev, Nair Aliyev, Azad Isazada, Casur Sumaranli, Alakbar
Mammadov and Uzeyir Cafarov. The permanent presenter at the roundtable
is a political observer of Zerkalo newspaper, Rauf Mirqadirov.