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FRAYING TIES WITH TURKEY
By Graham E. Fuller
Baltimore Sun
Oct 22 2007
Turkish-American relations are in crisis. But the House resolution
declaring the World War I-era killings of Armenians a genocide is only
one cause - and that's just a sideshow. Turkish-American relations have
been deteriorating for years, and the root explanation is simple and
harsh: Washington's policies are broadly and fundamentally incompatible
with Turkish foreign policy interests in multiple arenas. No amount
of diplomat-speak can conceal or change that reality. Count the ways:
~U Kurds. U.S. policies toward Iraq over the last 16 years have been
a disaster for Turkey. Since the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the Iraqi
Kurds have gained ever-greater autonomy and are now on the brink
of de facto independence. Such a Kurdish entity in Iraq stimulates
Kurdish separatism inside Turkey. Furthermore, Washington supports
Kurdish terrorists against Iran.
~U Terrorism. Turkey has fought domestic political violence and
terrorism for more than 30 years - Marxist, socialist, right-wing
nationalist, Kurdish, Islamist. U.S. policies in the Middle East
have greatly stimulated violence and radicalism across the region
and brought al-Qaida to Turkey's doorstep.
~U Iran. It is Turkey's most powerful neighbor and a vital source
of oil and gas - second only to Russia - in meeting Turkey's energy
needs. Washington heavy-handedly pressures Turkey to end its extensive
and deepening relations with Iran in order to press a U.S.
sanctions regime there. Though there is little affection between
Turkey and Iran, there has been virtually no serious armed conflict
between the two nations for centuries. Ankara sees U.S. policies
as radicalizing and isolating Tehran further, which is undesirable
for Turkey.
~U Syria. Ankara's relations with Syria have done a 180-degree turn
in the last decade, and are flourishing. Syrians - as well as many
other Arabs - are impressed with Turkey's ability to simultaneously
be a member of NATO, seek entry into the European Union, say no to
Washington on using Turkish soil to invade Iraq, restore respect for
its Islamic heritage, develop new relations with the Arab world and
adopt a genuinely balanced position on the Palestinian conflict.
Ankara resists Washington's pressures to marginalize and stifle
Damascus.
~U Armenia. Ankara and Yerevan, Armenia's capital, are in productive
unofficial contact with one another, such as via "gray" trade and
air links, and both would like to effect a reconciliation. It is the
Armenian diaspora, with its intense nationalist rhetoric, that is
one of the key factors in inflaming the atmosphere against potential
rapprochement.
~U Russia. There has been a revolution in Ankara's relations with
Moscow after 500 years of hostility. Moscow is the second-largest
importer of Turkish goods after Germany, and Turkey has invested up to
$12 billion in Russia in the construction field. Russia is Turkey's
primary source of energy, and Ankara increasingly looks to Eurasia
as a key part of its economic future.
Turkish generals, angry with Washington, even mutter about a Russian
strategic "alternative" if it is stiff-armed by the West. Although
there is some rivalry over the routing of Central Asian energy
pipelines to the West - whether via Russia or Iran and Turkey -
Ankara values its ties with Moscow and opposes U.S. efforts to bait
the Russian bear in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe on NATO expansion
and missile issues.
~U Palestine. Turks care a lot about Palestine - which they had
jurisdiction over in Ottoman times. They sympathize with Palestinian
suffering under 40 years of Israeli occupation. Ankara views Hamas as
a legitimate element on the Palestinian political spectrum and seeks
to mediate with it. Washington says no. Ankara has good working ties
with Israel but does not shrink from sharp public criticism of what
it perceives as Israeli excesses.
Overall, a "new Turkey" actively seeks good-neighbor relations with all
regional states and players. It seeks to be a major player and mediator
in the Middle East - to bring radicals into the mainstream via patient
diplomacy against what it perceives as complicating U.S. belligerence.
Turkey has deep interests in Central Asia. If the Chinese- and
Russian-sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization bids to be
the dominant geopolitical grouping in Eurasia, then Turkey, like
Afghanistan, Iran and India, would like an association with it.
Washington opposes that.
One may quarrel with the specifics of Turkish policies, but there
is broad belief across the Turkish political spectrum that these
policies serve the country's core needs. While the State Department may
soothingly speak of "vital shared interests" in democracy, stability
and counterterrorism, all of that is empty talk when compared with
conflicting concrete policies in so many key spheres.
We had better get used to the fact that Turkey, strengthened by
its popular democracy, is going to pursue its national interests,
regardless of Washington's pressure. Few Turks want it any other way.
Graham E. Fuller is a former vice chairman of the National Intelligence
Council at the CIA. His latest book, "The New Turkish Republic,"
will be published in December. This article originally appeared in
the Los Angeles Times.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
By Graham E. Fuller
Baltimore Sun
Oct 22 2007
Turkish-American relations are in crisis. But the House resolution
declaring the World War I-era killings of Armenians a genocide is only
one cause - and that's just a sideshow. Turkish-American relations have
been deteriorating for years, and the root explanation is simple and
harsh: Washington's policies are broadly and fundamentally incompatible
with Turkish foreign policy interests in multiple arenas. No amount
of diplomat-speak can conceal or change that reality. Count the ways:
~U Kurds. U.S. policies toward Iraq over the last 16 years have been
a disaster for Turkey. Since the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the Iraqi
Kurds have gained ever-greater autonomy and are now on the brink
of de facto independence. Such a Kurdish entity in Iraq stimulates
Kurdish separatism inside Turkey. Furthermore, Washington supports
Kurdish terrorists against Iran.
~U Terrorism. Turkey has fought domestic political violence and
terrorism for more than 30 years - Marxist, socialist, right-wing
nationalist, Kurdish, Islamist. U.S. policies in the Middle East
have greatly stimulated violence and radicalism across the region
and brought al-Qaida to Turkey's doorstep.
~U Iran. It is Turkey's most powerful neighbor and a vital source
of oil and gas - second only to Russia - in meeting Turkey's energy
needs. Washington heavy-handedly pressures Turkey to end its extensive
and deepening relations with Iran in order to press a U.S.
sanctions regime there. Though there is little affection between
Turkey and Iran, there has been virtually no serious armed conflict
between the two nations for centuries. Ankara sees U.S. policies
as radicalizing and isolating Tehran further, which is undesirable
for Turkey.
~U Syria. Ankara's relations with Syria have done a 180-degree turn
in the last decade, and are flourishing. Syrians - as well as many
other Arabs - are impressed with Turkey's ability to simultaneously
be a member of NATO, seek entry into the European Union, say no to
Washington on using Turkish soil to invade Iraq, restore respect for
its Islamic heritage, develop new relations with the Arab world and
adopt a genuinely balanced position on the Palestinian conflict.
Ankara resists Washington's pressures to marginalize and stifle
Damascus.
~U Armenia. Ankara and Yerevan, Armenia's capital, are in productive
unofficial contact with one another, such as via "gray" trade and
air links, and both would like to effect a reconciliation. It is the
Armenian diaspora, with its intense nationalist rhetoric, that is
one of the key factors in inflaming the atmosphere against potential
rapprochement.
~U Russia. There has been a revolution in Ankara's relations with
Moscow after 500 years of hostility. Moscow is the second-largest
importer of Turkish goods after Germany, and Turkey has invested up to
$12 billion in Russia in the construction field. Russia is Turkey's
primary source of energy, and Ankara increasingly looks to Eurasia
as a key part of its economic future.
Turkish generals, angry with Washington, even mutter about a Russian
strategic "alternative" if it is stiff-armed by the West. Although
there is some rivalry over the routing of Central Asian energy
pipelines to the West - whether via Russia or Iran and Turkey -
Ankara values its ties with Moscow and opposes U.S. efforts to bait
the Russian bear in the Caucasus and Eastern Europe on NATO expansion
and missile issues.
~U Palestine. Turks care a lot about Palestine - which they had
jurisdiction over in Ottoman times. They sympathize with Palestinian
suffering under 40 years of Israeli occupation. Ankara views Hamas as
a legitimate element on the Palestinian political spectrum and seeks
to mediate with it. Washington says no. Ankara has good working ties
with Israel but does not shrink from sharp public criticism of what
it perceives as Israeli excesses.
Overall, a "new Turkey" actively seeks good-neighbor relations with all
regional states and players. It seeks to be a major player and mediator
in the Middle East - to bring radicals into the mainstream via patient
diplomacy against what it perceives as complicating U.S. belligerence.
Turkey has deep interests in Central Asia. If the Chinese- and
Russian-sponsored Shanghai Cooperation Organization bids to be
the dominant geopolitical grouping in Eurasia, then Turkey, like
Afghanistan, Iran and India, would like an association with it.
Washington opposes that.
One may quarrel with the specifics of Turkish policies, but there
is broad belief across the Turkish political spectrum that these
policies serve the country's core needs. While the State Department may
soothingly speak of "vital shared interests" in democracy, stability
and counterterrorism, all of that is empty talk when compared with
conflicting concrete policies in so many key spheres.
We had better get used to the fact that Turkey, strengthened by
its popular democracy, is going to pursue its national interests,
regardless of Washington's pressure. Few Turks want it any other way.
Graham E. Fuller is a former vice chairman of the National Intelligence
Council at the CIA. His latest book, "The New Turkish Republic,"
will be published in December. This article originally appeared in
the Los Angeles Times.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress