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Why Turkey Matters
>From the November 2007 Trumpet Print Edition »
Turkey's increasing significance is arresting the world's attention. Here's
why it should arrest yours. By Joel Hilliker
Suddenly, Turkey is all over the headlines.
Most Americans would tend to underestimate its significance. But why, in the
midst of October, did an outburst of public discussion center on whether to
call the World War i-era Turkish killing of Armenians a `genocide'? Why did
Congress raise the issue, and why did the White House scramble to squelch
it?
The crux of debate rested on the potential for losing Turkey's help in the
war in Iraq. Its role as vital supply route for U.S. troops took center
stage. In fact, some analysts suggested that the Democrat-led Congress
pushed the `genocide' issue to alienate Turkey in an underhanded effort to
spite the president and torpedo the Iraq war.
Is it really possible that this nation - about which few Americans concern
themselves - could make the difference between victory and defeat in Iraq?
Who knew Turkey was so important?
At the Crossroads
The instant clamor surrounding that single issue is a meaningful symbol of
just how much this historically pivotal nation is rising again to prominence
in modern geopolitics.
Turkey sits right at the crossroads of a developing clash of civilizations.
Its population is almost wholly Muslim, but its constitution is staunchly
secular. It is a democracy and a constitutional republic, yet since 1960 its
military leaders have overthrown four duly elected governments for being too
religious. It is anchored to the Middle East as a member of the Organization
of the Islamic Conference, yet welded to the West within the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization. On top of that, a pillar in its foreign policy for a
generation has been its bid for membership in the European Union.
The U.S. is not alone in trying to come to grips with this complex
geopolitical puzzle. Nations across the globe are coming to see that, for
all its contradictions, and after decades of quiet since the Ottoman Empire
collapsed at the end of World War i, Turkey is shaping up to be an extremely
significant global player. As the world increasingly fractures into regional
blocs - the United States, the Middle East, Europe, Asia - Turkey remains a
distinct entity whose value to all of these powers is rapidly rising.
This exceptional position, which we can witness developing right before us,
appears to be setting Turkey up perfectly for the unique role it plays in
end-time biblical prophecy.
Why the World Is Taking Note
Turkey is attracting interest for a number of reasons.
First, its economy is on fire - it is one of the fastest-growing on Earth.
Since 2002, under the leadership of the Justice and Development Party (akp),
the economy has transformed. It is now the largest Muslim economy, and the
largest in the region. Turkey is a member of the G-20, a gathering of the
world's 20 largest economies. It is playing its cards wisely, reducing
restrictions on trade with Muslim states while simultaneously cultivating
relationships with European and other nations.
As Dr. George Friedman put it, `The ability of Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq
and Iran to remain hostile to Turkey decreases as the Turkish economy grows.
Ideology and history are very real things, but so is the economic power of a
dynamic economy' (Stratfor, July 31).
Of course, a large Turkish economy means a large Turkish military. Already
it is nato's second-largest armed force after the U.S., with over 1 million
uniformed personnel. This reality has several ramifications regarding the
balance of power in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Second, Turkey is comfortably stepping into a ready-made role as a vital
energy hub linking Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia.
This is one of the most geographically strategic countries in the world - a
literal bridge between continents. On its west, Turkey borders Greece and
Bulgaria - EU nations; on its south, Syria, Iraq and Iran - Middle Eastern
Muslim states; and on its east, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan - former
Soviet republics. It connects to the Mediterranean, Black and Aegean seas,
and encompasses the vital Bosporus and Dardanelles sea gates, linking
Central Asia to the Mediterranean. In a world increasingly driven by energy
politics, its unique location translates into valuable energy transit routes
for more and more nations.
With Russia aggressively taking over global oil and natural gas markets,
uncomfortable customers, particularly those in Europe, are actively seeking
energy from other sources. Turkey is in the right place at the right time,
with major oil pipelines being built across its soil, circumventing Russian
territory altogether. It is proving itself a worthy middleman for energy
from not only former Soviet republics Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, but also
Iraq and Iran. In addition, Turkey, in conjunction with foreign investors
and companies, is building new oil refineries that will increase its worth
even more. Analysts say the nation's refining capacity should double within
only a few years.
This reality seems tailor-made to suit Ankara's foreign-policy interests,
because the entity hungriest for non-Russian energy happens to be the very
one Turkey has been working so hard to pretty itself up for: Europe.
Naturally, the whole situation also deeply concerns Russia, whose
monopolistic energy tendencies are undercut by Turkey's activities. On top
of that, Russia is robustly fighting a strong Islamist incursion on its
southwestern border, particularly against Muslim separatists in Chechnya - and
it possesses proof that Turkey has financially supported and trained Chechen
terrorists in their struggle for independence.
A third reason for Turkey's growing relevance - as became abundantly evident
in October - is its role in the unfolding drama surrounding the future of
Iraq.
A Strained Alliance
The Iraq war has created bad blood between the U.S. and Turkey. The Turks
have long struggled with a restive Kurdish population in their southeast
region, driven by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (pkk). This terrorist group
seeks to carve an independent Kurdish state out of territory in southeast
Turkey, as well as parts of Syria, Iraq and Iran. Whatever differences these
four nations have, they are united in their determination to stop Kurdistan
from materializing.
The fact that the U.S. empowered the Iraqi Kurds by eliminating Saddam
Hussein rocked the American-Turkish alliance. In 2003, Ankara simply refused
to let the U.S. invade Iraq from Turkish territory - a major snub from a nato
ally. Add to that a turning of the historic tables: With a growing economy
and military, Turkey simply isn't as dependent on the U.S. as it once was.
In fact, since the U.S. has gotten entrenched in Iraq, it has come to depend
deeply on Turkey: 70 percent of its Iraq-bound air cargo and 33 percent of
its fuel passes through Turkey, and it heavily uses the Incirlik Air Base
for refueling operations and cargo flights to both Iraq and Afghanistan.
The upshot is, Turkey feels very comfortable with ignoring Washington's
wishes and doing what it feels it must to protect its own interests.
Recent events highlight just how monumental this change is.
In an October attack, pkk rebels killed 13 Turkish soldiers; the people of
Turkey angrily demanded retaliation. The government bombed and shelled
northern Iraq, and then the parliament approved plans to launch a ground
invasion.
All this fuss puts the U.S. in an awkward spot. The Kurdish north has been
the most stable part of Iraq since Saddam Hussein's ouster in 2003, and
Washington would rather nothing upset that. Supporting Turkey could well
alienate the Kurdish allies the U.S. has built there, and the whole
situation may further destabilize Iraq - something U.S. and Iraqi leaders are
desperate to avoid.
But the amazing thing is, the Turks just don't care. `We don't need anyone's
advice on northern Iraq and the operation to be carried out there,' Prime
Minister Tayyip Erdogan said. Reuters reported that the crowd in Istanbul
cheered this pronouncement, and cheered again when he said that the U.S.
`came tens of thousands of kilometers and attacked Iraq without asking
anyone's permission.'
Amid these developments, the timing couldn't have been worse for the U.S.
congressional committee's `genocide' resolution. Turkey bristled at the
news, recalling its ambassador in the U.S. and threatening to close its
doors to American troops. Anti-American demonstrations spilled into the
streets, according to the Jerusalem Post. `All prospects look bad ... and
relations with the U.S. have already gone down the drain,' Turkish foreign
policy expert Semih Idiz said.
The White House responded by going into full damage control mode: It issued
public statements condemning the measure, it essentially apologized to
Turkey's leaders, and it finally convinced Congress to kill the resolution.
The fervor of the response revealed just how desperately the U.S. needs
Turkey's cooperation in order to resolve the crisis in Iraq in a manner
suited to its own national interests. But the U.S. isn't the only country in
that situation. So is the other primary external player in this theater:
Iran.
An Islamic Shift
In practical terms, as Washington contemplates reducing its presence in
Iraq, its primary concern is to try to prevent Iran from simply taking
over - not just Iraq but virtually the entire Middle East. In Turkey, it sees
the closest thing it has to a regional counterbalance to Iran.
Unfortunately, it so happens that all this friction between Ankara and
Washington has strengthened Turkey's historically wary relationship with
Iran.
Something else that could strengthen this relationship - and markedly change
the balance within several of the precarious situations in which Turkey
plays a role - occurred on August 28, when Turkish parliamentarians elected a
former Islamist as president.
The new president, Abdullah Gül, is a bit of a puzzle. He was a cabinet
member in one of the Islamic governments the military ousted in the
1990s - yet he has been a leading supporter of his nation's EU membership bid.
His devotion to Europe certainly placates the nation's generals and military
commanders, but his religion still chafes against their fierce loyalty to
the secularist ideals institutionalized in 1923 by the nation's founder,
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. His political party, the akp, has an Islamist
pedigree and maintains pan-Islamic ties throughout the region. Turkey's
secularist military suspects that it retains a masked Islamist agenda.
Stratfor noted that, because the president chooses judges and hence
dominates the judiciary, having Gül as president means that `for the first
time since the founding of the Turkish republic more than 80 years ago, a
political force rooted in Islamism essentially controls all of the key
civilian institutions of the state' (August 29, emphasis mine). Stratfor
expects the akp to seek to use its new power as a beachhead to move the
nation away from secularism and toward the freer expression of religion in
public life; it anticipates drama ahead as the akp is forced `to balance
pan-Islamic issues with Turkish nationalist objectives' (ibid.). Though this
analysis probably overstates how much Turkey will change under President
Gül, we would not be surprised to see the nation proceed with a more
sympathetic economic and foreign policy toward the leading Arab and Muslim
energy producers in the region.
Any shift within Turkey away from secularism and toward Islam could help
alter the balance of power in the Middle East - most notably, in favor of
Iran.
A Nightmare for Israel?
In 1996, Turkey inked a mutual defense deal with Israel that, for years,
analysts credited with contributing to the relative stability of the region.
The Islamic Affairs Analyst went so far as to say that Israel's enemies
respected Turkey enough that the Jewish state's national survival was all
but assured as long as the deal stood.
Events in the past couple of years, however, have shown that whatever
deterrent effect Turkey once had has already weakened to some degree: Iran
and Syria have unleashed forces in Lebanon and within Israel against the
Jewish state with few qualms. But, given Turkey's new Islamic leadership,
this trend could get worse.
Any further weakening of Turkey's restraining influence on Iranian power is
a nightmare for Israel, which Iran has committed itself to eliminating.
Tensions between Washington and Ankara over Iraq have already opened a door
for the Islamic Republic. Suspicion between Turkey and Iran has thawed in
recent years, and ties have improved. The fact that Turkey is now ruled by a
Muslim - albeit Sunni - rather than a secularist certainly doesn't hurt.
The more cooperative these two nations are, the more latitude the Turks are
likely to give Iran without feeling directly threatened as Tehran pursues
its regional ambitions.
Watch for that cooperation to increase - and for Iran to become even more
brazen.
Unrequited Love
What does Turkey get out of the deal? If nothing else, it gets Iranian
energy - energy it can pass on to Europe.
The two countries have just completed an oil pipeline that will pump 500,000
barrels of Iranian oil a day into Turkey. And the Turkish Petroleum Corp.
has announced plans to invest $3.5 billion in Iran's South Pars natural gas
field. This project would include building the means to transport Iranian
gas through Turkey to Europe. The U.S., though flatly opposed to the deal,
can do little to stop it.
Ultimately, even under an Islamic president, it appears Europe is who Turkey
most wants to please. Ankara simply sees Iran as a workable partner in
increasingly procuring the energy that Europe desperately wants. Radio Free
Europe reports that for decades to come, Iranian gas may be Europe's most
viable source of non-Russian gas. Nothing Turkey could do would strengthen
its value to the EU more than its growth as an energy hub.
Even the slippage in Turkey's relationship with the United States is driving
it more toward Europe, according to Semih Idiz. Speaking of the Iraq crisis,
Idiz said, `Having its relations with the U.S. `electrified,' Ankara will be
more and more eager to grab hold of the EU anchor' (Turkish Weekly,
September 1).
President Gül has strongly emphasized his intent to forge ahead with plans
to join the European Union, plans that will require further economic reforms
and constitutional amendments. His ally, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, also from the Justice and Development Party, has outlined a
five-year program to increase individual freedoms, further boost the
economy, and, above all, strengthen the nation's case for EU membership.
Biblical prophecy indicates, however, that although Turkey will remain
committed to its romance with Europe, all these efforts are doomed to
fail - just as they always have.
Turkey's Image Problem
>From the time Atatürk himself famously admonished his countrymen to `turn
toward Europe,' Turkey has labored, to varying degrees, to cast itself in
the image of the West. For the past decade, it has worked overtime.
Still, for every obstacle Turkey hurdles, the EU throws up another. Since
1987, when Turkey applied for full membership, 15 other states have cut to
the front of the line and been accepted: Austria, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. The Turks have watched the Union
swell from 12 states to 27, while they remain peering through the window
from the outside.
Now, the prospect of becoming an energy bridge to the Continent has inflamed
Turkey's hopes of finally convincing the EU to return the love.
Those hopes are wasted. Try as it may to overcome it, Turkey clearly has an
image problem among Europe's decision makers - and even its voters. Just this
year, France elected a president - Nicolas Sarkozy - who campaigned on
opposition to Turkish EU membership.
Why? Why is Europe so opposed to considering Turks European citizens? Only
one major issue separates Turkey from all the other nations being granted
their pass into the Union: religion.
The fundamentally Roman Catholic continent simply has no intention of
incorporating 70 million Muslims in one swoop. And Turkey - with its Ottoman
history, which at one time threatened Catholicism's very existence - has
particularly negative associations in European minds. As Bernard Lewis
expresses it, `[T]here is still a reserve of mistrust, and even at times of
hostility [toward Turks], with roots deep in the European Christian past'
(From Babel to Dragomans).
The election of an openly Islamic president has only solidified Europe's
unspoken yet inflexible resistance to embracing Turkey. Still, given this
nation's growing strategic value to Europe, watch for the EU to continue to
dangle carrots and incentives to keep the Turks onside. And as Europe grows
in power in the time ahead, Ankara's devotion to the European cause will
only grow along with it.
Thus, Turkey is destined to remain suspended between worlds - always
searching, ever more desperate to please.
A Shocking Betrayal
These trends become far more significant in light of the Bible's description
of Turkey's place in end-time events. It is only with the revelation of God's
Word that we can understand why Turkey truly matters.
The biblical prophecies regarding events in the Middle East are clear: A
Muslim-Jewish war is about to erupt - initiated by Islamic forces clearly
unrestrained by Turkey or anything else. That conflagration will trigger a
series of events leading to the Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
When the Muslims move to sack Jerusalem, it will provoke a united European
bloc of nations to intervene. This bloc will set up armies around
Jerusalem - appearing like a `peacekeeping force' - but quickly transforming
into a deadly war machine (Luke 21:20). It won't be just Arabs or Muslims
that suffer at their hands; this European power will turn its full force on
the nations of Israel - including America and Britain. This horrifying
double-cross is discussed in Ezekiel 23. Many in the Jerusalem area will be
trapped!
The Prophet Obadiah recorded an extraordinary prophecy about `Edom,' whose
modern descendants are the Turks. (Request a free copy of the Trumpet's
December 1997 article `Turkey: An Act of Revenge!' for a detailed
explanation of this prophecy.) It shows how Turkey, possessing the escape
route via land - the Cilician Gates mountain pass - will actually betray those
Israelis, Americans and British who are trying to escape, delivering them
into the hands of their conquerors. This is one last act, true to present
form, of Turkey attempting to curry favor with Europe!
The description of these events reveals several things that illuminate the
meaning of present-day headlines.
One, the fact that those escapees look to Turkey strongly indicates that
Turkey's alliances with the U.S. and with Israel will remain, at least in
name.
Two, the betrayal may mean we can expect still more friction to develop
within these alliances, like that which has arisen over the `genocide'
question and the Kurd condition in Iraq. Though the U.S. still enjoys the
support of Turkey's secularist military, anti-Americanism is rampant and
growing within Turkish media and among the Turkish people - a fact that the
U.S., as desperate as it is to retain Turkey's help, is willing to overlook.
Three, for Turkey, relations with Europe will continue to trump all other
foreign-policy considerations.
Thus, based on biblical prophecy, in the end the Trumpet expects recent
events that have thrust Turkey into the headlines only to cement the unique
position this nation already occupies in modern geopolitics. They may tax
Turkey's agreements with the U.S. and Israel, but will not destroy them.
They may increase Turkey's cooperation with Muslim states, shifting the
balance of power in favor of Iran, but that cooperation will fall short of a
full-scale alliance. And most importantly, they will strengthen Europe's
resolve to keep Turkey at arm's length, but do nothing to diminish Turkey's
undying resolve to get into Europe's bed.
And as Obadiah's prophecy reveals, that nation's willingness to do anything
to serve this ambition - including betrayal - will lead to its ruin.
Why Turkey Matters
>From the November 2007 Trumpet Print Edition »
Turkey's increasing significance is arresting the world's attention. Here's
why it should arrest yours. By Joel Hilliker
Suddenly, Turkey is all over the headlines.
Most Americans would tend to underestimate its significance. But why, in the
midst of October, did an outburst of public discussion center on whether to
call the World War i-era Turkish killing of Armenians a `genocide'? Why did
Congress raise the issue, and why did the White House scramble to squelch
it?
The crux of debate rested on the potential for losing Turkey's help in the
war in Iraq. Its role as vital supply route for U.S. troops took center
stage. In fact, some analysts suggested that the Democrat-led Congress
pushed the `genocide' issue to alienate Turkey in an underhanded effort to
spite the president and torpedo the Iraq war.
Is it really possible that this nation - about which few Americans concern
themselves - could make the difference between victory and defeat in Iraq?
Who knew Turkey was so important?
At the Crossroads
The instant clamor surrounding that single issue is a meaningful symbol of
just how much this historically pivotal nation is rising again to prominence
in modern geopolitics.
Turkey sits right at the crossroads of a developing clash of civilizations.
Its population is almost wholly Muslim, but its constitution is staunchly
secular. It is a democracy and a constitutional republic, yet since 1960 its
military leaders have overthrown four duly elected governments for being too
religious. It is anchored to the Middle East as a member of the Organization
of the Islamic Conference, yet welded to the West within the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization. On top of that, a pillar in its foreign policy for a
generation has been its bid for membership in the European Union.
The U.S. is not alone in trying to come to grips with this complex
geopolitical puzzle. Nations across the globe are coming to see that, for
all its contradictions, and after decades of quiet since the Ottoman Empire
collapsed at the end of World War i, Turkey is shaping up to be an extremely
significant global player. As the world increasingly fractures into regional
blocs - the United States, the Middle East, Europe, Asia - Turkey remains a
distinct entity whose value to all of these powers is rapidly rising.
This exceptional position, which we can witness developing right before us,
appears to be setting Turkey up perfectly for the unique role it plays in
end-time biblical prophecy.
Why the World Is Taking Note
Turkey is attracting interest for a number of reasons.
First, its economy is on fire - it is one of the fastest-growing on Earth.
Since 2002, under the leadership of the Justice and Development Party (akp),
the economy has transformed. It is now the largest Muslim economy, and the
largest in the region. Turkey is a member of the G-20, a gathering of the
world's 20 largest economies. It is playing its cards wisely, reducing
restrictions on trade with Muslim states while simultaneously cultivating
relationships with European and other nations.
As Dr. George Friedman put it, `The ability of Greece, Armenia, Syria, Iraq
and Iran to remain hostile to Turkey decreases as the Turkish economy grows.
Ideology and history are very real things, but so is the economic power of a
dynamic economy' (Stratfor, July 31).
Of course, a large Turkish economy means a large Turkish military. Already
it is nato's second-largest armed force after the U.S., with over 1 million
uniformed personnel. This reality has several ramifications regarding the
balance of power in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Second, Turkey is comfortably stepping into a ready-made role as a vital
energy hub linking Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia.
This is one of the most geographically strategic countries in the world - a
literal bridge between continents. On its west, Turkey borders Greece and
Bulgaria - EU nations; on its south, Syria, Iraq and Iran - Middle Eastern
Muslim states; and on its east, Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan - former
Soviet republics. It connects to the Mediterranean, Black and Aegean seas,
and encompasses the vital Bosporus and Dardanelles sea gates, linking
Central Asia to the Mediterranean. In a world increasingly driven by energy
politics, its unique location translates into valuable energy transit routes
for more and more nations.
With Russia aggressively taking over global oil and natural gas markets,
uncomfortable customers, particularly those in Europe, are actively seeking
energy from other sources. Turkey is in the right place at the right time,
with major oil pipelines being built across its soil, circumventing Russian
territory altogether. It is proving itself a worthy middleman for energy
from not only former Soviet republics Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, but also
Iraq and Iran. In addition, Turkey, in conjunction with foreign investors
and companies, is building new oil refineries that will increase its worth
even more. Analysts say the nation's refining capacity should double within
only a few years.
This reality seems tailor-made to suit Ankara's foreign-policy interests,
because the entity hungriest for non-Russian energy happens to be the very
one Turkey has been working so hard to pretty itself up for: Europe.
Naturally, the whole situation also deeply concerns Russia, whose
monopolistic energy tendencies are undercut by Turkey's activities. On top
of that, Russia is robustly fighting a strong Islamist incursion on its
southwestern border, particularly against Muslim separatists in Chechnya - and
it possesses proof that Turkey has financially supported and trained Chechen
terrorists in their struggle for independence.
A third reason for Turkey's growing relevance - as became abundantly evident
in October - is its role in the unfolding drama surrounding the future of
Iraq.
A Strained Alliance
The Iraq war has created bad blood between the U.S. and Turkey. The Turks
have long struggled with a restive Kurdish population in their southeast
region, driven by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (pkk). This terrorist group
seeks to carve an independent Kurdish state out of territory in southeast
Turkey, as well as parts of Syria, Iraq and Iran. Whatever differences these
four nations have, they are united in their determination to stop Kurdistan
from materializing.
The fact that the U.S. empowered the Iraqi Kurds by eliminating Saddam
Hussein rocked the American-Turkish alliance. In 2003, Ankara simply refused
to let the U.S. invade Iraq from Turkish territory - a major snub from a nato
ally. Add to that a turning of the historic tables: With a growing economy
and military, Turkey simply isn't as dependent on the U.S. as it once was.
In fact, since the U.S. has gotten entrenched in Iraq, it has come to depend
deeply on Turkey: 70 percent of its Iraq-bound air cargo and 33 percent of
its fuel passes through Turkey, and it heavily uses the Incirlik Air Base
for refueling operations and cargo flights to both Iraq and Afghanistan.
The upshot is, Turkey feels very comfortable with ignoring Washington's
wishes and doing what it feels it must to protect its own interests.
Recent events highlight just how monumental this change is.
In an October attack, pkk rebels killed 13 Turkish soldiers; the people of
Turkey angrily demanded retaliation. The government bombed and shelled
northern Iraq, and then the parliament approved plans to launch a ground
invasion.
All this fuss puts the U.S. in an awkward spot. The Kurdish north has been
the most stable part of Iraq since Saddam Hussein's ouster in 2003, and
Washington would rather nothing upset that. Supporting Turkey could well
alienate the Kurdish allies the U.S. has built there, and the whole
situation may further destabilize Iraq - something U.S. and Iraqi leaders are
desperate to avoid.
But the amazing thing is, the Turks just don't care. `We don't need anyone's
advice on northern Iraq and the operation to be carried out there,' Prime
Minister Tayyip Erdogan said. Reuters reported that the crowd in Istanbul
cheered this pronouncement, and cheered again when he said that the U.S.
`came tens of thousands of kilometers and attacked Iraq without asking
anyone's permission.'
Amid these developments, the timing couldn't have been worse for the U.S.
congressional committee's `genocide' resolution. Turkey bristled at the
news, recalling its ambassador in the U.S. and threatening to close its
doors to American troops. Anti-American demonstrations spilled into the
streets, according to the Jerusalem Post. `All prospects look bad ... and
relations with the U.S. have already gone down the drain,' Turkish foreign
policy expert Semih Idiz said.
The White House responded by going into full damage control mode: It issued
public statements condemning the measure, it essentially apologized to
Turkey's leaders, and it finally convinced Congress to kill the resolution.
The fervor of the response revealed just how desperately the U.S. needs
Turkey's cooperation in order to resolve the crisis in Iraq in a manner
suited to its own national interests. But the U.S. isn't the only country in
that situation. So is the other primary external player in this theater:
Iran.
An Islamic Shift
In practical terms, as Washington contemplates reducing its presence in
Iraq, its primary concern is to try to prevent Iran from simply taking
over - not just Iraq but virtually the entire Middle East. In Turkey, it sees
the closest thing it has to a regional counterbalance to Iran.
Unfortunately, it so happens that all this friction between Ankara and
Washington has strengthened Turkey's historically wary relationship with
Iran.
Something else that could strengthen this relationship - and markedly change
the balance within several of the precarious situations in which Turkey
plays a role - occurred on August 28, when Turkish parliamentarians elected a
former Islamist as president.
The new president, Abdullah Gül, is a bit of a puzzle. He was a cabinet
member in one of the Islamic governments the military ousted in the
1990s - yet he has been a leading supporter of his nation's EU membership bid.
His devotion to Europe certainly placates the nation's generals and military
commanders, but his religion still chafes against their fierce loyalty to
the secularist ideals institutionalized in 1923 by the nation's founder,
Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. His political party, the akp, has an Islamist
pedigree and maintains pan-Islamic ties throughout the region. Turkey's
secularist military suspects that it retains a masked Islamist agenda.
Stratfor noted that, because the president chooses judges and hence
dominates the judiciary, having Gül as president means that `for the first
time since the founding of the Turkish republic more than 80 years ago, a
political force rooted in Islamism essentially controls all of the key
civilian institutions of the state' (August 29, emphasis mine). Stratfor
expects the akp to seek to use its new power as a beachhead to move the
nation away from secularism and toward the freer expression of religion in
public life; it anticipates drama ahead as the akp is forced `to balance
pan-Islamic issues with Turkish nationalist objectives' (ibid.). Though this
analysis probably overstates how much Turkey will change under President
Gül, we would not be surprised to see the nation proceed with a more
sympathetic economic and foreign policy toward the leading Arab and Muslim
energy producers in the region.
Any shift within Turkey away from secularism and toward Islam could help
alter the balance of power in the Middle East - most notably, in favor of
Iran.
A Nightmare for Israel?
In 1996, Turkey inked a mutual defense deal with Israel that, for years,
analysts credited with contributing to the relative stability of the region.
The Islamic Affairs Analyst went so far as to say that Israel's enemies
respected Turkey enough that the Jewish state's national survival was all
but assured as long as the deal stood.
Events in the past couple of years, however, have shown that whatever
deterrent effect Turkey once had has already weakened to some degree: Iran
and Syria have unleashed forces in Lebanon and within Israel against the
Jewish state with few qualms. But, given Turkey's new Islamic leadership,
this trend could get worse.
Any further weakening of Turkey's restraining influence on Iranian power is
a nightmare for Israel, which Iran has committed itself to eliminating.
Tensions between Washington and Ankara over Iraq have already opened a door
for the Islamic Republic. Suspicion between Turkey and Iran has thawed in
recent years, and ties have improved. The fact that Turkey is now ruled by a
Muslim - albeit Sunni - rather than a secularist certainly doesn't hurt.
The more cooperative these two nations are, the more latitude the Turks are
likely to give Iran without feeling directly threatened as Tehran pursues
its regional ambitions.
Watch for that cooperation to increase - and for Iran to become even more
brazen.
Unrequited Love
What does Turkey get out of the deal? If nothing else, it gets Iranian
energy - energy it can pass on to Europe.
The two countries have just completed an oil pipeline that will pump 500,000
barrels of Iranian oil a day into Turkey. And the Turkish Petroleum Corp.
has announced plans to invest $3.5 billion in Iran's South Pars natural gas
field. This project would include building the means to transport Iranian
gas through Turkey to Europe. The U.S., though flatly opposed to the deal,
can do little to stop it.
Ultimately, even under an Islamic president, it appears Europe is who Turkey
most wants to please. Ankara simply sees Iran as a workable partner in
increasingly procuring the energy that Europe desperately wants. Radio Free
Europe reports that for decades to come, Iranian gas may be Europe's most
viable source of non-Russian gas. Nothing Turkey could do would strengthen
its value to the EU more than its growth as an energy hub.
Even the slippage in Turkey's relationship with the United States is driving
it more toward Europe, according to Semih Idiz. Speaking of the Iraq crisis,
Idiz said, `Having its relations with the U.S. `electrified,' Ankara will be
more and more eager to grab hold of the EU anchor' (Turkish Weekly,
September 1).
President Gül has strongly emphasized his intent to forge ahead with plans
to join the European Union, plans that will require further economic reforms
and constitutional amendments. His ally, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, also from the Justice and Development Party, has outlined a
five-year program to increase individual freedoms, further boost the
economy, and, above all, strengthen the nation's case for EU membership.
Biblical prophecy indicates, however, that although Turkey will remain
committed to its romance with Europe, all these efforts are doomed to
fail - just as they always have.
Turkey's Image Problem
>From the time Atatürk himself famously admonished his countrymen to `turn
toward Europe,' Turkey has labored, to varying degrees, to cast itself in
the image of the West. For the past decade, it has worked overtime.
Still, for every obstacle Turkey hurdles, the EU throws up another. Since
1987, when Turkey applied for full membership, 15 other states have cut to
the front of the line and been accepted: Austria, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus,
the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania. The Turks have watched the Union
swell from 12 states to 27, while they remain peering through the window
from the outside.
Now, the prospect of becoming an energy bridge to the Continent has inflamed
Turkey's hopes of finally convincing the EU to return the love.
Those hopes are wasted. Try as it may to overcome it, Turkey clearly has an
image problem among Europe's decision makers - and even its voters. Just this
year, France elected a president - Nicolas Sarkozy - who campaigned on
opposition to Turkish EU membership.
Why? Why is Europe so opposed to considering Turks European citizens? Only
one major issue separates Turkey from all the other nations being granted
their pass into the Union: religion.
The fundamentally Roman Catholic continent simply has no intention of
incorporating 70 million Muslims in one swoop. And Turkey - with its Ottoman
history, which at one time threatened Catholicism's very existence - has
particularly negative associations in European minds. As Bernard Lewis
expresses it, `[T]here is still a reserve of mistrust, and even at times of
hostility [toward Turks], with roots deep in the European Christian past'
(From Babel to Dragomans).
The election of an openly Islamic president has only solidified Europe's
unspoken yet inflexible resistance to embracing Turkey. Still, given this
nation's growing strategic value to Europe, watch for the EU to continue to
dangle carrots and incentives to keep the Turks onside. And as Europe grows
in power in the time ahead, Ankara's devotion to the European cause will
only grow along with it.
Thus, Turkey is destined to remain suspended between worlds - always
searching, ever more desperate to please.
A Shocking Betrayal
These trends become far more significant in light of the Bible's description
of Turkey's place in end-time events. It is only with the revelation of God's
Word that we can understand why Turkey truly matters.
The biblical prophecies regarding events in the Middle East are clear: A
Muslim-Jewish war is about to erupt - initiated by Islamic forces clearly
unrestrained by Turkey or anything else. That conflagration will trigger a
series of events leading to the Second Coming of Jesus Christ.
When the Muslims move to sack Jerusalem, it will provoke a united European
bloc of nations to intervene. This bloc will set up armies around
Jerusalem - appearing like a `peacekeeping force' - but quickly transforming
into a deadly war machine (Luke 21:20). It won't be just Arabs or Muslims
that suffer at their hands; this European power will turn its full force on
the nations of Israel - including America and Britain. This horrifying
double-cross is discussed in Ezekiel 23. Many in the Jerusalem area will be
trapped!
The Prophet Obadiah recorded an extraordinary prophecy about `Edom,' whose
modern descendants are the Turks. (Request a free copy of the Trumpet's
December 1997 article `Turkey: An Act of Revenge!' for a detailed
explanation of this prophecy.) It shows how Turkey, possessing the escape
route via land - the Cilician Gates mountain pass - will actually betray those
Israelis, Americans and British who are trying to escape, delivering them
into the hands of their conquerors. This is one last act, true to present
form, of Turkey attempting to curry favor with Europe!
The description of these events reveals several things that illuminate the
meaning of present-day headlines.
One, the fact that those escapees look to Turkey strongly indicates that
Turkey's alliances with the U.S. and with Israel will remain, at least in
name.
Two, the betrayal may mean we can expect still more friction to develop
within these alliances, like that which has arisen over the `genocide'
question and the Kurd condition in Iraq. Though the U.S. still enjoys the
support of Turkey's secularist military, anti-Americanism is rampant and
growing within Turkish media and among the Turkish people - a fact that the
U.S., as desperate as it is to retain Turkey's help, is willing to overlook.
Three, for Turkey, relations with Europe will continue to trump all other
foreign-policy considerations.
Thus, based on biblical prophecy, in the end the Trumpet expects recent
events that have thrust Turkey into the headlines only to cement the unique
position this nation already occupies in modern geopolitics. They may tax
Turkey's agreements with the U.S. and Israel, but will not destroy them.
They may increase Turkey's cooperation with Muslim states, shifting the
balance of power in favor of Iran, but that cooperation will fall short of a
full-scale alliance. And most importantly, they will strengthen Europe's
resolve to keep Turkey at arm's length, but do nothing to diminish Turkey's
undying resolve to get into Europe's bed.
And as Obadiah's prophecy reveals, that nation's willingness to do anything
to serve this ambition - including betrayal - will lead to its ruin.