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CONGRESSIONAL RESOLUTION TO RECOGNIZE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE IS TABLED
Joshua Kucera
EurasiaNet, NY
Oct 29 2007
A bill that would have recognized the massacre of 1.5 million Armenians
in Ottoman-era Turkey as genocide has been tabled after the White
House, the US military and the Turkish government convinced many
original supporters of the measure that it would irreparably damage
US-Turkish relations.
The bill appeared to be on track for approval after it passed the
House Foreign Affairs Committee on October 10. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. The Armenian community and their lobbying
groups in Washington have been pushing for such a resolution for
years without success. This year, though, all the pieces seemed to be
in place: The new speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, is a longtime
supporter of Armenian-American causes, and Democrats, who generally
are more supportive of genocide recognition, are in the majority. At
one point, 227 of the 435 members of the House of Representatives
had signed on as cosponsors, suggesting that the resolution would
pass if it came to a vote.
But the closer the resolution came to success, the more Turkey and
the Bush administration fought against it. All eight living former
secretaries of state came out against the measure and President
George W. Bush spoke publicly against it. The day after it passed the
committee, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington, and Turkish
officials threatened to cut off cooperation in Iraq. Gen. David
Petraeus, the commander of US forces in Iraq, met privately with
several members of Congress to try to convince them to withdraw
their support.
In the days after it passed the committee, 11 of the bill's original
co-sponsors removed their support from the bill and other cosponsors
publicly said they would not vote for it. On October 24, four of the
measure's most vocal supporters wrote to Pelosi, asking her not to
bring the measure to a full vote. "We believe that a large majority of
our colleagues want to support a resolution recognizing the genocide
on the House floor and that they will do so, provided the timing is
more favorable."
The forcefulness of the opposition to the genocide recognition turned
the tide against the measure, said one Congressional staffer, speaking
on condition of anonymity. "The [Democratic House] leadership said
'we are going to bring this to the floor by Nov. 6,' and they were
very adamant about it," the staffer said. "Then you saw the Turkish
community, the Turkish lobby started to get very active about it. The
Armenian community is very well organized and the Turkish community has
not been. When it passed committee and Pelosi and Hoyer said that it's
coming to the floor, then they said, 'now we've got to step it up.'"
Many members of Congress signed on to the resolution without
recognizing the extent to which it offended Turkey. "When they recalled
their ambassador, members realized they weren't joking," the staffer
said. "I talked to the chief of staff of one of the members who got
off the bill and I said 'I saw your boss got off the bill.' He said
'Yeah, I don't even know why we got on the thing in the first place.' I
think people sponsored it without thinking very much about it."
Armenian lobbying groups put a brave face on the latest developments,
refusing to admit defeat. "This is a retooling of the timeline," said
Elizabeth Chouldjian, a spokeswoman for the Armenian National Committee
of America. "We're confident it will come up again during this term,"
she said. The term of this Congress ends at the end of next year.
"The administration reinforcing these threats as opposed to standing
firm to them, as well as the Turkish government's multimillion-dollar
lobbying efforts definitely had an impact," said Bryan Ardouny, the
executive director of the Armenian Assembly of America. "But this is
not a defeat. It's an uphill battle."
The defeat of the resolution will likely help President Bush in early
November when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes to
Washington. One of the key issues on the agenda will be a spike in
attacks by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which uses rear bases
in northern Iraq to attack targets in Turkey. US officials have
urged Turkey to not use its military to pursue the PKK inside Iraq,
and a top Turkish general said recently that Turkey would hold off
on a decision until Bush and Erdogan meet on Nov. 5. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The resolution's defeat will help Bush's hand in negotiating, said
Hugh Pope, an Istanbul-based senior analyst for the International
Crisis Group. "It will help some. But there's a level of nationalist
backlash here that will make managing the situation very hard for the
United States, if they don't offer something that will limit the PKK,"
he said.
That "something" could include US attacks on the PKK, permission
to send Turkish fighter-bombers into Iraq to attack PKK targets,
or other sorts of military access. "Of course, this puts the United
States into a very tough corner, but words aren't going to satisfy
the Turks," Pope said.
Overall, however, the defeat of the Armenian resolution has helped
temporarily shore up US-Turkish relations, which have been rocky over
the past several years. "Lots of countries have passed bills. This is
the first time that a country has decided not to go ahead so publicly,"
Pope said.
Editor's Note: Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC,-based freelance
writer who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus
and the Middle East.
Joshua Kucera
EurasiaNet, NY
Oct 29 2007
A bill that would have recognized the massacre of 1.5 million Armenians
in Ottoman-era Turkey as genocide has been tabled after the White
House, the US military and the Turkish government convinced many
original supporters of the measure that it would irreparably damage
US-Turkish relations.
The bill appeared to be on track for approval after it passed the
House Foreign Affairs Committee on October 10. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive]. The Armenian community and their lobbying
groups in Washington have been pushing for such a resolution for
years without success. This year, though, all the pieces seemed to be
in place: The new speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, is a longtime
supporter of Armenian-American causes, and Democrats, who generally
are more supportive of genocide recognition, are in the majority. At
one point, 227 of the 435 members of the House of Representatives
had signed on as cosponsors, suggesting that the resolution would
pass if it came to a vote.
But the closer the resolution came to success, the more Turkey and
the Bush administration fought against it. All eight living former
secretaries of state came out against the measure and President
George W. Bush spoke publicly against it. The day after it passed the
committee, Turkey recalled its ambassador to Washington, and Turkish
officials threatened to cut off cooperation in Iraq. Gen. David
Petraeus, the commander of US forces in Iraq, met privately with
several members of Congress to try to convince them to withdraw
their support.
In the days after it passed the committee, 11 of the bill's original
co-sponsors removed their support from the bill and other cosponsors
publicly said they would not vote for it. On October 24, four of the
measure's most vocal supporters wrote to Pelosi, asking her not to
bring the measure to a full vote. "We believe that a large majority of
our colleagues want to support a resolution recognizing the genocide
on the House floor and that they will do so, provided the timing is
more favorable."
The forcefulness of the opposition to the genocide recognition turned
the tide against the measure, said one Congressional staffer, speaking
on condition of anonymity. "The [Democratic House] leadership said
'we are going to bring this to the floor by Nov. 6,' and they were
very adamant about it," the staffer said. "Then you saw the Turkish
community, the Turkish lobby started to get very active about it. The
Armenian community is very well organized and the Turkish community has
not been. When it passed committee and Pelosi and Hoyer said that it's
coming to the floor, then they said, 'now we've got to step it up.'"
Many members of Congress signed on to the resolution without
recognizing the extent to which it offended Turkey. "When they recalled
their ambassador, members realized they weren't joking," the staffer
said. "I talked to the chief of staff of one of the members who got
off the bill and I said 'I saw your boss got off the bill.' He said
'Yeah, I don't even know why we got on the thing in the first place.' I
think people sponsored it without thinking very much about it."
Armenian lobbying groups put a brave face on the latest developments,
refusing to admit defeat. "This is a retooling of the timeline," said
Elizabeth Chouldjian, a spokeswoman for the Armenian National Committee
of America. "We're confident it will come up again during this term,"
she said. The term of this Congress ends at the end of next year.
"The administration reinforcing these threats as opposed to standing
firm to them, as well as the Turkish government's multimillion-dollar
lobbying efforts definitely had an impact," said Bryan Ardouny, the
executive director of the Armenian Assembly of America. "But this is
not a defeat. It's an uphill battle."
The defeat of the resolution will likely help President Bush in early
November when Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan comes to
Washington. One of the key issues on the agenda will be a spike in
attacks by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which uses rear bases
in northern Iraq to attack targets in Turkey. US officials have
urged Turkey to not use its military to pursue the PKK inside Iraq,
and a top Turkish general said recently that Turkey would hold off
on a decision until Bush and Erdogan meet on Nov. 5. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The resolution's defeat will help Bush's hand in negotiating, said
Hugh Pope, an Istanbul-based senior analyst for the International
Crisis Group. "It will help some. But there's a level of nationalist
backlash here that will make managing the situation very hard for the
United States, if they don't offer something that will limit the PKK,"
he said.
That "something" could include US attacks on the PKK, permission
to send Turkish fighter-bombers into Iraq to attack PKK targets,
or other sorts of military access. "Of course, this puts the United
States into a very tough corner, but words aren't going to satisfy
the Turks," Pope said.
Overall, however, the defeat of the Armenian resolution has helped
temporarily shore up US-Turkish relations, which have been rocky over
the past several years. "Lots of countries have passed bills. This is
the first time that a country has decided not to go ahead so publicly,"
Pope said.
Editor's Note: Joshua Kucera is a Washington, DC,-based freelance
writer who specializes in security issues in Central Asia, the Caucasus
and the Middle East.