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SOLVING KARABAKH CONFLICT IN A WAY NOT SUITING BAKU WILL PROVOKE NEW HOSTILITIES
news.az, Azerbaijan
Oct 28 2011
News.Az interviews Zahid Oruj, member of Milli Majlis, the Parliament
of Azerbaijan.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have said in their next statement that
"the contact line cannot be an eternal barrier between neighboring
states." What is the reason for increasing statements from the
co-chairs that it is unacceptable to maintain the status quo is
Karabakh conflict?
The current statement by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs is different
from previous ones to some extent because if in recent past they
were coming up with various proposals and a model of the conflict
resolution trying to bring the conflicting parties to the compromise.
But now amid increased likelihood of resumed hostilities in the region,
they issue statements calling the parties to avoid escalation.
Worthy of note is that Armenia has stored the bulk of its weapons in
Nagorno-Karabakh over the past period to conceal its large quantities
of weapons from the OSCE mission and shape a formal opinion that it
complies with arms control agreement for the South Caucasus.
Moreover, Armenia has begun to hold military exercises in occupied
lands of Azerbaijan more often. Possibly, some believe this is an
integral part of information war or an attempt to take preventive
measures amid growing military, diplomatic and economic potential
of Azerbaijan.
However, reportedly, Armenia seeks to make provocative action on the
contact line of troops to provoke Azerbaijan to resume hostilities.
That is why the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs make unsuccessful calls to
the parties to withdraw snipers from the contact line of troops. Of
course, these calls apply to the Armenian side first and foremost
because it is Armenia who accumulates weapons in the occupied lands
which kill Azerbaijani civilians.
In other words, the world community saw maintaining status quo in
Karabakh conflict as it major accomplishment earlier. But now it
becomes clear that unresolved conflict may deal a blow to their
strategic goals in the region.
Does it mean that world community, which solved a number of similar
problems earlier, has more interest to resolve Armenia-Azerbaijan
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
I believe a time has come when the world community has begun to pay
more attention to resolution of the Karabakh problem. At current
situation unresolved Karabakh conflict begins to deal a real blow to
Russia's interests as ongoing conflict enables the West to maintain
its interests in the region.
On the other hand, the West is aware that preserving status quo is
fraught with unpredictable consequences, since resumption of war can
cause irreparable damage to their strategic interests.
I say this once again that the status quo should be changed for this
reason. However, the main point is that in whose favor this status
quo will change. Resolving Karabakh conflict in a way not suiting
Azerbaijan will pave a way for a new war. This is inevitable.
Following French President Nicolas Sarkjozy's recent visit to the
South Caucasus, some observers said that France begins to play the
role of mediator in the Karabakh conflict settlement.
Meanwhile, President Dmitriy Medvedev said recently at a meeting
with his Armenian counterpart in Moscow that Russia would continue to
play an active role in resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Can active mediation of Moscow or Paris play a significant
role in resolving the Karabakh conflict?
Once while implementing his economic reforms Chinese politician
Deng Xiaoping stated that a result is more important for him. In the
meantime, he uttered his already famous aphorism that "it does not
matter what color is the cat, so long as it catches mice." Azerbaijan
adheres to a similar stance in resolving Karabakh conflict.
Over the long period which Karabakh conflict has remained unresolved,
different countries came up with various proposals in a bid to boost
their position in the region, or use their intensified efforts to put
pressure on either side of the conflict. Much effort was made by the
U.S., Russia and France at various times. Russia, as evidenced by
secret documents, in order to neutralize accusations from the West
that it intends to occupy the South Caucasus, has begun to arrange
meetings between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2008
despite it is not interested in resolving the Karabakh conflict.
At that time, even the staunchest skeptics hoped that Moscow's active
mediation will help return at least three or four occupied districts
of Azerbaijan and an option of the Karabakh conflict resolution which
would serve the interests of Russia will emerge.
It was felt that President Medvedev intends to take certain steps in
this direction. Perhaps Medvedev believes that the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict will weaken Western influence in the South Caucasus,
giving Russia a distinctive status in the region.
However, these intentions were never realized as Russian political
elite did not change their stance. Therefore, Moscow is irritated that
at increased efforts by Paris to solve the Karabakh conflict. Moscow
believes that solving Karabakh conflict through mediation of Western
countries means a blow to Russia's interests.
Nevertheless, I believe that Azerbaijan will be able to change
entrenched situation in the region, the system of relations of the
great powers towards the region and thereby achieve a solution to
the problem in its favor in the near future.
news.az, Azerbaijan
Oct 28 2011
News.Az interviews Zahid Oruj, member of Milli Majlis, the Parliament
of Azerbaijan.
The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have said in their next statement that
"the contact line cannot be an eternal barrier between neighboring
states." What is the reason for increasing statements from the
co-chairs that it is unacceptable to maintain the status quo is
Karabakh conflict?
The current statement by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs is different
from previous ones to some extent because if in recent past they
were coming up with various proposals and a model of the conflict
resolution trying to bring the conflicting parties to the compromise.
But now amid increased likelihood of resumed hostilities in the region,
they issue statements calling the parties to avoid escalation.
Worthy of note is that Armenia has stored the bulk of its weapons in
Nagorno-Karabakh over the past period to conceal its large quantities
of weapons from the OSCE mission and shape a formal opinion that it
complies with arms control agreement for the South Caucasus.
Moreover, Armenia has begun to hold military exercises in occupied
lands of Azerbaijan more often. Possibly, some believe this is an
integral part of information war or an attempt to take preventive
measures amid growing military, diplomatic and economic potential
of Azerbaijan.
However, reportedly, Armenia seeks to make provocative action on the
contact line of troops to provoke Azerbaijan to resume hostilities.
That is why the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs make unsuccessful calls to
the parties to withdraw snipers from the contact line of troops. Of
course, these calls apply to the Armenian side first and foremost
because it is Armenia who accumulates weapons in the occupied lands
which kill Azerbaijani civilians.
In other words, the world community saw maintaining status quo in
Karabakh conflict as it major accomplishment earlier. But now it
becomes clear that unresolved conflict may deal a blow to their
strategic goals in the region.
Does it mean that world community, which solved a number of similar
problems earlier, has more interest to resolve Armenia-Azerbaijan
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
I believe a time has come when the world community has begun to pay
more attention to resolution of the Karabakh problem. At current
situation unresolved Karabakh conflict begins to deal a real blow to
Russia's interests as ongoing conflict enables the West to maintain
its interests in the region.
On the other hand, the West is aware that preserving status quo is
fraught with unpredictable consequences, since resumption of war can
cause irreparable damage to their strategic interests.
I say this once again that the status quo should be changed for this
reason. However, the main point is that in whose favor this status
quo will change. Resolving Karabakh conflict in a way not suiting
Azerbaijan will pave a way for a new war. This is inevitable.
Following French President Nicolas Sarkjozy's recent visit to the
South Caucasus, some observers said that France begins to play the
role of mediator in the Karabakh conflict settlement.
Meanwhile, President Dmitriy Medvedev said recently at a meeting
with his Armenian counterpart in Moscow that Russia would continue to
play an active role in resolving the conflict between Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Can active mediation of Moscow or Paris play a significant
role in resolving the Karabakh conflict?
Once while implementing his economic reforms Chinese politician
Deng Xiaoping stated that a result is more important for him. In the
meantime, he uttered his already famous aphorism that "it does not
matter what color is the cat, so long as it catches mice." Azerbaijan
adheres to a similar stance in resolving Karabakh conflict.
Over the long period which Karabakh conflict has remained unresolved,
different countries came up with various proposals in a bid to boost
their position in the region, or use their intensified efforts to put
pressure on either side of the conflict. Much effort was made by the
U.S., Russia and France at various times. Russia, as evidenced by
secret documents, in order to neutralize accusations from the West
that it intends to occupy the South Caucasus, has begun to arrange
meetings between the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan since 2008
despite it is not interested in resolving the Karabakh conflict.
At that time, even the staunchest skeptics hoped that Moscow's active
mediation will help return at least three or four occupied districts
of Azerbaijan and an option of the Karabakh conflict resolution which
would serve the interests of Russia will emerge.
It was felt that President Medvedev intends to take certain steps in
this direction. Perhaps Medvedev believes that the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict will weaken Western influence in the South Caucasus,
giving Russia a distinctive status in the region.
However, these intentions were never realized as Russian political
elite did not change their stance. Therefore, Moscow is irritated that
at increased efforts by Paris to solve the Karabakh conflict. Moscow
believes that solving Karabakh conflict through mediation of Western
countries means a blow to Russia's interests.
Nevertheless, I believe that Azerbaijan will be able to change
entrenched situation in the region, the system of relations of the
great powers towards the region and thereby achieve a solution to
the problem in its favor in the near future.