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RAUF MIRKADYROV: IN KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS TIME IS WORKING TO THE BENEFIT OF RUSSIA RATHER THAN ARMENIA OR AZERBAIJAN
ArmInfo's interview with Azerbaijani political expert Rauf Mirkadyrov
by David Stepanyan
Wednesday, February 12, 23:22
What can you say about the domestic political situations in Azerbaijan
and Armenia following the latest elections?
When considering the domestic political developments in Armenia and
Azerbaijan, one can see their striking difference from Georgia, whose
society is permanently active. It is another question whether it is
good or bad. The domestic political space of Azerbaijan has started
reformatting to the extent of full removal of the previous information
since 2005. Therefore, it is impossible to say that something has
changed following the past presidential election in Azerbaijan. Yes,
in the run-up to the election some attempts were made to stimulate
the society and create a political space at last, but all the attempts
were in vain. I think that unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia is experiencing
certain domestic processes. The situation caused in the republic
after September 3 is the best evidence of that. European integration
supporters are much more than those several hundred people who are
protesting against the president's decision to join the Customs Union.
The fact that the domestic processes in Armenia are being reformatted
is also proved by the refusal of the opposition, which had gained
almost half of the votes during the past parliamentary election, to
run in presidential election. It is mind-boggling. Levon Ter-Petrosyan
was concerned over the March 2008 developments and he felt the fear
of responsibility for their re-occurrence. The result was his rough
mistake to join forces with Gagik Tsarukyan and that mistake weakened
his protesting movement.
Do you observe any positive tendencies following the Armenian and
Azeri Presidents' meeting in Vienna after almost a two-year break?
Today we can observe both positive and negative tendencies in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and both come from Armenia's decision to
join the Customs Union. Before Sept 3 2013 both the Azerbaijanis and
the Armenians were confident that time was working to their benefit:
the former relied on growing economy, oil and gas and Armenia's partial
isolation, the latter on control of territories, which will sooner or
later be fixed in some form in the international law. But my opinion -
and Sept 3 has proved this - is that in reality time is working to
the benefit of Russia. By saying on Sept 3 that Armenia could not
be in different military-political and economic spaces at one and
the same time Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan openly admitted that
security was the key factor that made him decide to join the Customs
Union. But the Armenians still have a little time.
If they changed their position in one day, they can do it in six
months, can't they?
How will the Karabakh peace process benefit from it?
The situation that has arisen after September 3 is pushing Armenia
and to some extent Azerbaijan for settlement, because strongly
dependent on the priorities of Russia, which has very powerful
geopolitical interests in the region, Armenia, in turn, contradicts
Azerbaijan's interests. Armenia, as a member of the Customs Union,
deprives Baku of possible maneuvering in the game with Russia and
subsequently threatens it. It appears that the given circumstance is
a stimulus for both Armenia and Azerbaijan to come to an agreement
on Karabakh within the months left before Armenia's accession to
the Customs Union, though there is very little time left. Russian
President Vladimir Putin's recent trip to Armenia, which started
with a symbolic visit to the Russian 102nd military base was a red
flag shown to the West. In other words, Putin claimed that Russia
had no intention to leave and that Russia was going to strengthen its
position in the South Caucasus. Putin's statement was rather ambitious
given that Georgia staked out its own position long ago and Azerbaijan
has no intention to join the Customs Union either. Therefore, Russia,
which has strengthened its influence in Armenia, will do everything
possible to torpedo the Karabakh peace process.
Why should Russia, which has big domestic problems, focus on
reintegration of the USSR?
It is very hard to explain why Russia is concentrating its vast
resources to reintegrate the USSR as it hardly needs either Armenia
or Azerbaijan. In case of Ukraine, much is said about what Moscow has
given to Kyiv, but nothing is said about what it wants to take in
exchange. Economically speaking, Russia does not need Ukraine even
though it has certain economic interests in that country. In fact,
the post-Soviet republics have just 15% of Russia's foreign trade as
the bigger part of it is energy imports to the West. So, what Russia
is really after is not economic interests. As any land power, Russia
regards any neighboring territory as its own, unlike sea powers, like
the UK or France, who regarded their overseas territories as their
colonies and therefore had no problems with letting them free. Today
Russian President Vladimir Putin has nothing to give to his society,
and so, the restoration of the USSR - in one way or another - has
become the trademark of his comeback to the Kremlin.
Recently Moscow has actively been inviting Tehran to a "new non-aligned
security system" in the region that includes the South Caucasus. Why
is Moscow doing that and what role does the Geneva interim agreement
on the Iranian nuclear program play here?
I think, in fact, the situation around Iran, at least its role in the
geopolitical axis system has undergone almost no changes. I believe
all the preliminary agreements on Iran reached in Geneva were nothing
but a timeout for Russia, the West and Iran itself.
So, the talk on the loyalty of "new Iran" to the United States is
groundless, isn't it?
If Tehran suddenly changes its attitude towards the US, there can
be no non-aligned union in the region. To become a loyal state,
Iran needs reformatting of its whole domestic political space the
way it happened in 1978-1979. Within the 35 years after the Islamic
Revolution, a totally new political space was created in Iran, and it
claimed that "The US is an evil empire". It is impossible to change
that space within 6 months. Khamenei will simply be unable to explain
such sudden transformation. The matter concerns complete cancellation
of Iranian geopolitics in the Middle East. Moreover, how can one speak
of a "non-aligned system" if Russia is present in it? Consequently,
no such interregional alliance is possible in practice. Russia has its
own interests in the region and they run counter to the US interests.
If Iran suddenly becomes loyal to the USA, these contradictions will
cover Iran as well. Russia is most of all interested in torpedoing the
continuation of the Geneva process. So, for the moment the only allies
of the USA in the region are Turkey, whose services are still useful to
Washington, and Israel, which is isolated from the neighbors by Iran's
efforts. Everyone is aware of the current state of Russian economy. If
Iranian oil enters the global market, the Russian oil prices will
be below 100 USD per barrel at least for a year. Such a price will
not be good enough for the Russian budget. So, no sudden changes are
likely to happen in the Iran-West relationship in the near future.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=5DA3A9E0-9423-11E3-80480EB7C0D21663
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
ArmInfo's interview with Azerbaijani political expert Rauf Mirkadyrov
by David Stepanyan
Wednesday, February 12, 23:22
What can you say about the domestic political situations in Azerbaijan
and Armenia following the latest elections?
When considering the domestic political developments in Armenia and
Azerbaijan, one can see their striking difference from Georgia, whose
society is permanently active. It is another question whether it is
good or bad. The domestic political space of Azerbaijan has started
reformatting to the extent of full removal of the previous information
since 2005. Therefore, it is impossible to say that something has
changed following the past presidential election in Azerbaijan. Yes,
in the run-up to the election some attempts were made to stimulate
the society and create a political space at last, but all the attempts
were in vain. I think that unlike Azerbaijan, Armenia is experiencing
certain domestic processes. The situation caused in the republic
after September 3 is the best evidence of that. European integration
supporters are much more than those several hundred people who are
protesting against the president's decision to join the Customs Union.
The fact that the domestic processes in Armenia are being reformatted
is also proved by the refusal of the opposition, which had gained
almost half of the votes during the past parliamentary election, to
run in presidential election. It is mind-boggling. Levon Ter-Petrosyan
was concerned over the March 2008 developments and he felt the fear
of responsibility for their re-occurrence. The result was his rough
mistake to join forces with Gagik Tsarukyan and that mistake weakened
his protesting movement.
Do you observe any positive tendencies following the Armenian and
Azeri Presidents' meeting in Vienna after almost a two-year break?
Today we can observe both positive and negative tendencies in the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and both come from Armenia's decision to
join the Customs Union. Before Sept 3 2013 both the Azerbaijanis and
the Armenians were confident that time was working to their benefit:
the former relied on growing economy, oil and gas and Armenia's partial
isolation, the latter on control of territories, which will sooner or
later be fixed in some form in the international law. But my opinion -
and Sept 3 has proved this - is that in reality time is working to
the benefit of Russia. By saying on Sept 3 that Armenia could not
be in different military-political and economic spaces at one and
the same time Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan openly admitted that
security was the key factor that made him decide to join the Customs
Union. But the Armenians still have a little time.
If they changed their position in one day, they can do it in six
months, can't they?
How will the Karabakh peace process benefit from it?
The situation that has arisen after September 3 is pushing Armenia
and to some extent Azerbaijan for settlement, because strongly
dependent on the priorities of Russia, which has very powerful
geopolitical interests in the region, Armenia, in turn, contradicts
Azerbaijan's interests. Armenia, as a member of the Customs Union,
deprives Baku of possible maneuvering in the game with Russia and
subsequently threatens it. It appears that the given circumstance is
a stimulus for both Armenia and Azerbaijan to come to an agreement
on Karabakh within the months left before Armenia's accession to
the Customs Union, though there is very little time left. Russian
President Vladimir Putin's recent trip to Armenia, which started
with a symbolic visit to the Russian 102nd military base was a red
flag shown to the West. In other words, Putin claimed that Russia
had no intention to leave and that Russia was going to strengthen its
position in the South Caucasus. Putin's statement was rather ambitious
given that Georgia staked out its own position long ago and Azerbaijan
has no intention to join the Customs Union either. Therefore, Russia,
which has strengthened its influence in Armenia, will do everything
possible to torpedo the Karabakh peace process.
Why should Russia, which has big domestic problems, focus on
reintegration of the USSR?
It is very hard to explain why Russia is concentrating its vast
resources to reintegrate the USSR as it hardly needs either Armenia
or Azerbaijan. In case of Ukraine, much is said about what Moscow has
given to Kyiv, but nothing is said about what it wants to take in
exchange. Economically speaking, Russia does not need Ukraine even
though it has certain economic interests in that country. In fact,
the post-Soviet republics have just 15% of Russia's foreign trade as
the bigger part of it is energy imports to the West. So, what Russia
is really after is not economic interests. As any land power, Russia
regards any neighboring territory as its own, unlike sea powers, like
the UK or France, who regarded their overseas territories as their
colonies and therefore had no problems with letting them free. Today
Russian President Vladimir Putin has nothing to give to his society,
and so, the restoration of the USSR - in one way or another - has
become the trademark of his comeback to the Kremlin.
Recently Moscow has actively been inviting Tehran to a "new non-aligned
security system" in the region that includes the South Caucasus. Why
is Moscow doing that and what role does the Geneva interim agreement
on the Iranian nuclear program play here?
I think, in fact, the situation around Iran, at least its role in the
geopolitical axis system has undergone almost no changes. I believe
all the preliminary agreements on Iran reached in Geneva were nothing
but a timeout for Russia, the West and Iran itself.
So, the talk on the loyalty of "new Iran" to the United States is
groundless, isn't it?
If Tehran suddenly changes its attitude towards the US, there can
be no non-aligned union in the region. To become a loyal state,
Iran needs reformatting of its whole domestic political space the
way it happened in 1978-1979. Within the 35 years after the Islamic
Revolution, a totally new political space was created in Iran, and it
claimed that "The US is an evil empire". It is impossible to change
that space within 6 months. Khamenei will simply be unable to explain
such sudden transformation. The matter concerns complete cancellation
of Iranian geopolitics in the Middle East. Moreover, how can one speak
of a "non-aligned system" if Russia is present in it? Consequently,
no such interregional alliance is possible in practice. Russia has its
own interests in the region and they run counter to the US interests.
If Iran suddenly becomes loyal to the USA, these contradictions will
cover Iran as well. Russia is most of all interested in torpedoing the
continuation of the Geneva process. So, for the moment the only allies
of the USA in the region are Turkey, whose services are still useful to
Washington, and Israel, which is isolated from the neighbors by Iran's
efforts. Everyone is aware of the current state of Russian economy. If
Iranian oil enters the global market, the Russian oil prices will
be below 100 USD per barrel at least for a year. Such a price will
not be good enough for the Russian budget. So, no sudden changes are
likely to happen in the Iran-West relationship in the near future.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=5DA3A9E0-9423-11E3-80480EB7C0D21663
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress