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World Socialist Web Site
March 29 2014
Ukraine conflict exacerbates tensions in the Caucasus
By Clara Weiss
29 March 2014
The Ukraine conflict is exacerbating the already tense situation in
the Caucasus. Following the US and European Union-backed coup in Kiev,
moves are now underway to speed up the inclusion of Georgia and
Moldova into the EU and NATO, and strengthen ties with Azerbaijan.
Both Georgia and Azerbaijan have lined up behind the imperialist
powers and the right-wing government in Kiev in their campaign against
Russia.
The Caucasus has been a renewed focal point of imperialist interests
since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and subsequent independence
of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The region provides access to the
Caspian Basin--one of the largest energy reserves in the world--and
serves as a bridge between Europe and Central Asia.
Following the US-funded "Rose Revolution" in 2003, Georgia has emerged
as the main partner of the US and the EU in the Caucasus. In 2008,
Georgia conducted a war against Russia in an abortive bid to regain
control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The two regions remain under
Russian control and tensions between Russia and Georgia have
intensified enormously.
At the end of February, Georgian President Irakli Garibashvili met
with US President Barack Obama in Washington and urged the United
States to accelerate the integration of the post-Soviet states into
NATO and the EU. In particular, he called for NATO to accept Georgia
earlier than previously planned. Garibashvili described the
independence referendum in the Crimea as "illegal".
NATO had originally promised Georgia membership in 2008, but allowed
the date to pass after its confrontation with Russia. The admission of
Georgia into NATO would be an open provocation and threat of war
against Russia.
Both Georgia and Moldova, which also has territorial disputes with
Russia due to the secession of Transnistria, are also on the verge of
concluding an Association Agreement with the European Union. Its
signing has been brought forward for a second time, and will now take
place in June.
Western propaganda frequently claims that after Crimea, Georgia could
be Russia's "next target". In fact, there is a real risk that Georgia
could provoke a war with Russia as it did in 2008. With its open
support for the coup in Kiev, the Georgian government has left no
doubt as to its willingness to once again provide a casus belli.
After Georgia, Azerbaijan is the second most important US ally in the
Caucasus--not only against Russia but also against Iran. The
Azerbaijani media is openly discussing direct military confrontation
between the imperialist powers and Russia and a possible territorial
breakup of Russia. The right-wing opposition Musavat party, which is
pushing for an even stronger orientation to the West, vigorously
supported the Kiev protests.
Following weeks of silence, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
addressed the crisis in Ukraine for the first time on 20 March, a few
days after Russia's annexation of Crimea. Without naming Russia, he
declared that the "territorial integrity of a country" could not be
"changed without its consent," thereby echoing the political line of
Washington and Brussels.
The Internet newspaper Eurasianet quoted a senior Azerbaijani Foreign
Ministry official, who stated that Baku could break all relations with
Crimea: "There is still no decision made, but I expect it", he said.
In the war between Georgia and Russia in the summer of 2008, Baku
refrained from taking sides. The integration of Azerbaijan into the
preparations for war against Iran, however, has served to intensify
tensions with Moscow in recent years. At the end of December 2012 the
government in Baku forced Russia to abandon its radar station in
Azerbaijan by demonstratively increasing the rent from 7 to 300
million dollars per year. The station was originally planned as the
starting point for a joint missile defense project between Russia and
Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly important to the strategy of US
imperialism following the war preparations against Iran and attempts
to re-route energy supplies from the post-Soviet region to Europe,
bypassing Russia. On 18 March the American ambassador in Baku, Richard
Morningstar, stated that the crisis in Ukraine made relations between
Azerbaijan and the US and the EU even more important.
George Friedman of the Stratfor Information Service, which has close
links to US intelligence agencies, proposes forming an alliance of
states, stretching from Estonia across Poland and Romania to
Azerbaijan in order to "to engage and confront Russia" These states
should build up their armed forces in a massive fashion and receive US
military training, Friedman states.
"A failure to engage at this point would cause the countries around
Russia's periphery, from Estonia to Azerbaijan, to conclude that with
the United States withdrawn and Europe fragmented, they must reach an
accommodation with Russia" Friedman writes. "This will expand Russian
power and open the door to Russian influence spreading on the European
Peninsula itself. The United States has fought three wars (World War
I, World War II and the Cold War) to prevent hegemonic domination of
the region. Failure to engage would be a reversal of a century-old
strategy."
In a document from December 2013, "Azerbaijan's security and U.S.
interests: time for a reassessment", Stephen Blank, who works for the
United States Army War College, and various Washington think tanks,
stresses that Azerbaijan is a key country in the region.
He quoted former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, who
wrote in the 1990s: "Azerbaijan can be described as the vitally
important "cork" controlling access to the 'bottle' that contains the
riches of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia. An independent,
Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan, with pipelines running from it to the
ethnically related and politically supportive Turkey, would prevent
Russia from exercising a monopoly on access to the region and would
thus also deprive Russia of decisive political leverage over the
policies of the new Central Asian states."
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey form an important corridor for the
transportation of oil and gas from the Caspian region to the West,
bypassing Russia. A number of pipelines are already up and running.
The Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TANAP) is due to be completed in 2018
and is expected to deliver up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas from
Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field in the Balkans.
TANAP could also supply Ukraine, which struck a deal with Baku in
November 2013 to form a joint consortium for the construction of the
pipeline. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies and has
tried for years to lessen its dependency by promoting shale gas,
liquefied natural gas imports and finding other energy suppliers.
Since the beginning of the TANAP project Azerbaijan has expanded its
economic relations with a number of other Eastern European countries.
On 18 March, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said that the
Ukraine crisis could transform TANAP into the key pipeline project in
the region.
The ruling elites in Azerbaijan, however, are divided on the question
of how far they should seek confrontation with Russia, fearing a
resurgence of the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over the small mountain region of
Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in around 25,000 fatalities between 1988 and
1994. A million were made homeless, and many have still found no
permanent place to live. Since then there have been repeated border
conflicts.
Tensions have increased in recent months with many observers fearing a
new outbreak of war. Armenia has close political and military links
with Russia, while Azerbaijan has close relations with NATO member
Turkey.
The confrontation between Russia and the imperialist powers in Ukraine
has served to further exacerbate the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia is the only Caucasian country to back Russia. So far, peace
negotiations have been carried out by the so-called Minsk Peace group
led by Russia, the US and France. Given the sanctions imposed by the
West against Russia and a possible escalation of the conflict,
however, it is unlikely that this fragile framework will be able to
stabilize the situation.
Decades of Stalinist rule, the destruction of the Soviet Union and the
restoration of capitalism have transformed the entire region into a
powder keg that could explode at any time. As was the case in
Yugoslavia, the imperialist powers are exploiting national and ethnic
tensions in Russia and the entire post-Soviet sphere to prepare
military action aimed at imposing their control over the vast
resources of the region.
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/03/29/cauc-m29.html
From: Baghdasarian
March 29 2014
Ukraine conflict exacerbates tensions in the Caucasus
By Clara Weiss
29 March 2014
The Ukraine conflict is exacerbating the already tense situation in
the Caucasus. Following the US and European Union-backed coup in Kiev,
moves are now underway to speed up the inclusion of Georgia and
Moldova into the EU and NATO, and strengthen ties with Azerbaijan.
Both Georgia and Azerbaijan have lined up behind the imperialist
powers and the right-wing government in Kiev in their campaign against
Russia.
The Caucasus has been a renewed focal point of imperialist interests
since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and subsequent independence
of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. The region provides access to the
Caspian Basin--one of the largest energy reserves in the world--and
serves as a bridge between Europe and Central Asia.
Following the US-funded "Rose Revolution" in 2003, Georgia has emerged
as the main partner of the US and the EU in the Caucasus. In 2008,
Georgia conducted a war against Russia in an abortive bid to regain
control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The two regions remain under
Russian control and tensions between Russia and Georgia have
intensified enormously.
At the end of February, Georgian President Irakli Garibashvili met
with US President Barack Obama in Washington and urged the United
States to accelerate the integration of the post-Soviet states into
NATO and the EU. In particular, he called for NATO to accept Georgia
earlier than previously planned. Garibashvili described the
independence referendum in the Crimea as "illegal".
NATO had originally promised Georgia membership in 2008, but allowed
the date to pass after its confrontation with Russia. The admission of
Georgia into NATO would be an open provocation and threat of war
against Russia.
Both Georgia and Moldova, which also has territorial disputes with
Russia due to the secession of Transnistria, are also on the verge of
concluding an Association Agreement with the European Union. Its
signing has been brought forward for a second time, and will now take
place in June.
Western propaganda frequently claims that after Crimea, Georgia could
be Russia's "next target". In fact, there is a real risk that Georgia
could provoke a war with Russia as it did in 2008. With its open
support for the coup in Kiev, the Georgian government has left no
doubt as to its willingness to once again provide a casus belli.
After Georgia, Azerbaijan is the second most important US ally in the
Caucasus--not only against Russia but also against Iran. The
Azerbaijani media is openly discussing direct military confrontation
between the imperialist powers and Russia and a possible territorial
breakup of Russia. The right-wing opposition Musavat party, which is
pushing for an even stronger orientation to the West, vigorously
supported the Kiev protests.
Following weeks of silence, the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
addressed the crisis in Ukraine for the first time on 20 March, a few
days after Russia's annexation of Crimea. Without naming Russia, he
declared that the "territorial integrity of a country" could not be
"changed without its consent," thereby echoing the political line of
Washington and Brussels.
The Internet newspaper Eurasianet quoted a senior Azerbaijani Foreign
Ministry official, who stated that Baku could break all relations with
Crimea: "There is still no decision made, but I expect it", he said.
In the war between Georgia and Russia in the summer of 2008, Baku
refrained from taking sides. The integration of Azerbaijan into the
preparations for war against Iran, however, has served to intensify
tensions with Moscow in recent years. At the end of December 2012 the
government in Baku forced Russia to abandon its radar station in
Azerbaijan by demonstratively increasing the rent from 7 to 300
million dollars per year. The station was originally planned as the
starting point for a joint missile defense project between Russia and
Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan is becoming increasingly important to the strategy of US
imperialism following the war preparations against Iran and attempts
to re-route energy supplies from the post-Soviet region to Europe,
bypassing Russia. On 18 March the American ambassador in Baku, Richard
Morningstar, stated that the crisis in Ukraine made relations between
Azerbaijan and the US and the EU even more important.
George Friedman of the Stratfor Information Service, which has close
links to US intelligence agencies, proposes forming an alliance of
states, stretching from Estonia across Poland and Romania to
Azerbaijan in order to "to engage and confront Russia" These states
should build up their armed forces in a massive fashion and receive US
military training, Friedman states.
"A failure to engage at this point would cause the countries around
Russia's periphery, from Estonia to Azerbaijan, to conclude that with
the United States withdrawn and Europe fragmented, they must reach an
accommodation with Russia" Friedman writes. "This will expand Russian
power and open the door to Russian influence spreading on the European
Peninsula itself. The United States has fought three wars (World War
I, World War II and the Cold War) to prevent hegemonic domination of
the region. Failure to engage would be a reversal of a century-old
strategy."
In a document from December 2013, "Azerbaijan's security and U.S.
interests: time for a reassessment", Stephen Blank, who works for the
United States Army War College, and various Washington think tanks,
stresses that Azerbaijan is a key country in the region.
He quoted former US National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski, who
wrote in the 1990s: "Azerbaijan can be described as the vitally
important "cork" controlling access to the 'bottle' that contains the
riches of the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia. An independent,
Turkic-speaking Azerbaijan, with pipelines running from it to the
ethnically related and politically supportive Turkey, would prevent
Russia from exercising a monopoly on access to the region and would
thus also deprive Russia of decisive political leverage over the
policies of the new Central Asian states."
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey form an important corridor for the
transportation of oil and gas from the Caspian region to the West,
bypassing Russia. A number of pipelines are already up and running.
The Trans-Anatolian pipeline (TANAP) is due to be completed in 2018
and is expected to deliver up to 30 billion cubic meters of gas from
Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field in the Balkans.
TANAP could also supply Ukraine, which struck a deal with Baku in
November 2013 to form a joint consortium for the construction of the
pipeline. Ukraine is heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies and has
tried for years to lessen its dependency by promoting shale gas,
liquefied natural gas imports and finding other energy suppliers.
Since the beginning of the TANAP project Azerbaijan has expanded its
economic relations with a number of other Eastern European countries.
On 18 March, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said that the
Ukraine crisis could transform TANAP into the key pipeline project in
the region.
The ruling elites in Azerbaijan, however, are divided on the question
of how far they should seek confrontation with Russia, fearing a
resurgence of the war over Nagorno-Karabakh. The conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan over the small mountain region of
Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in around 25,000 fatalities between 1988 and
1994. A million were made homeless, and many have still found no
permanent place to live. Since then there have been repeated border
conflicts.
Tensions have increased in recent months with many observers fearing a
new outbreak of war. Armenia has close political and military links
with Russia, while Azerbaijan has close relations with NATO member
Turkey.
The confrontation between Russia and the imperialist powers in Ukraine
has served to further exacerbate the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia is the only Caucasian country to back Russia. So far, peace
negotiations have been carried out by the so-called Minsk Peace group
led by Russia, the US and France. Given the sanctions imposed by the
West against Russia and a possible escalation of the conflict,
however, it is unlikely that this fragile framework will be able to
stabilize the situation.
Decades of Stalinist rule, the destruction of the Soviet Union and the
restoration of capitalism have transformed the entire region into a
powder keg that could explode at any time. As was the case in
Yugoslavia, the imperialist powers are exploiting national and ethnic
tensions in Russia and the entire post-Soviet sphere to prepare
military action aimed at imposing their control over the vast
resources of the region.
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/03/29/cauc-m29.html
From: Baghdasarian