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Ukraine: Farewell to Arms
(c) óollage by RIA Novosti
12:00 27/09/2014
Julia Lyubova
http://en.ria.ru/red_line/20140927/193396385/Ukraine-Farewell-to-Arms.html
Both sides in Ukraine conflict signed a much-awaited treaty aimed at
ending hostilities, which claimed thousands of lives and put the
war-torn eastern regions on the brink of humanitarian catastrophe.
Twelve-point memorandum, banning military action in Ukraine came as
result of grueling negotiations held in Minsk and brokered by Russia
and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Studio guest Victor Mizin, Deputy Director of the Institute of
Strategic Assessment,Vyaceslav Pazdnyak, head of "Wider Europe"
Project, Minsk, Belarus, Andrei Sushentsov, managing partner with
Moscow-based "Foreign Policy Analysis Group", and Dr. Anastasia
Nesvetailova, Reader in International Politics at City University
London, shared their opinions with Radio VR.
Download mp3
Victor Mizin: I do not share the optimism. It is a good thing that a
ceasefire is now installed but the positions of the two sides are so
widely apart. Kiev is, of course, for a united Ukraine and the people
in Donbas want something like independence, if not joining Russia. So,
what we will see there? Hopefully, not the resumption of fighting, but
many experts predict that it will be something like another frozen
conflict, probably on the model of Transnistria or Nagorno-Karabakh.
If we can predict anything, do you think this moment of calm is sustainable?
Victor Mizin: I hope so, because the Ukrainian army just has no
equipment and no weapons to continue fighting. And I think it was the
major reason for Kiev to come to the ceasefire. But with the planned
elections in the entire Ukraine, which those separatist regions do not
want to take part in, there would be more and more disengagement and
the crisis would only be exacerbated. So, I'm on a more pessimist side
here.
Are all the points of the 12-point plan being followed?
Vyaceslav Pazdnyak: My impression is that the plan is being followed.
The most important thing is that there is a ceasefire. As for the
implementation, I think it is going to take a lot of time and effort
to follow through, and press every point to its ultimate completion.
Some experts are using the term "Minsk peace process". What do you
make out of that phenomenon and where will it bring the Ukrainian
conflict?
Vyaceslav Pazdnyak: First of all, it is rather arguable that we are
facing the so-called Minsk process. The Ukrainian crisis is a very
strange phenomenon and it cannot be framed into some sort of a
classical concept of a crisis or a conflict. Minsk has been the place
for consultations. Now, as the consultations proceed further on, we
can label it as a process, but, normally, we are discussing conflict
settlement processes when we have not consultations, but full-fledged
mechanisms of the negotiations.
So far, Minsk only potentially is a process of a conflict settlement
as such. We have kind of a preparation for a possible process and, in
that sense, Minsk is a fairly successful beginning. What will the
future bring is again a disputable question. We have too many factors
to consider and one would be in a difficult position to predict the
outcome.
Petro Poroshenko mentioned that there's been no fighting for the first
time. Is this a sign of a long-lasting peace and a good development in
order to lift the sanctions?
Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova: There are two sides to this, as usual.
Sanctions in the world economy have historically proven to be a little
bit sticky. So, whilst they are more or less straightforward to get
introduced, it does take some time to get rid of them completely. It
will be a relief if some of them do get removed for various
international business contracts, but it will not be one-size package
being lifted from Russia.
On the other hand there certainly are forces within the EU, and they
are quite powerful forces, who would like to see this happen. But it
is a matter of international negotiation and there are a lot of
variables in this conflict that are, unfortunately, unpredictable or
not entirely calculable. And the ceasefire or the lasting peace really
depends on people on the ground, and so far they have proven not to be
entirely controllable.
Poroshenko was speaking about the Ukrainian EU integration, but at the
same time it seems that it would be quite a bumpy road.
Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova: There are political aspirations and plans,
but there are businesses and finances and debts on the ground. The
Ukrainian economy is largely destroyed. I've just recently revised the
8-priority plan that the Ukrainian President has identified for the
country. And he is talking about a complete reform of the state. So,
it is a very long-term ambition and no organization, including the EU,
would like to have a failing state in its orbit.
Andrei Sushentsov: It is actually not clear what is the overall
strategy that Kiev currently has towards the rebels' controlled
territories. Kiev has already said that it wants to maintain a unitary
character of the Ukrainian state and doesn't want to make any
sacrifices. Right now it seems that Kiev wants to postpone the overall
settlement of this conflict for at least several years, when it either
would have enough resources to unilaterally conclude this conflict
militarily, or some events or a situation will come that would favour
the Kiev position more.
(c) óollage by RIA Novosti
12:00 27/09/2014
Julia Lyubova
http://en.ria.ru/red_line/20140927/193396385/Ukraine-Farewell-to-Arms.html
Both sides in Ukraine conflict signed a much-awaited treaty aimed at
ending hostilities, which claimed thousands of lives and put the
war-torn eastern regions on the brink of humanitarian catastrophe.
Twelve-point memorandum, banning military action in Ukraine came as
result of grueling negotiations held in Minsk and brokered by Russia
and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Studio guest Victor Mizin, Deputy Director of the Institute of
Strategic Assessment,Vyaceslav Pazdnyak, head of "Wider Europe"
Project, Minsk, Belarus, Andrei Sushentsov, managing partner with
Moscow-based "Foreign Policy Analysis Group", and Dr. Anastasia
Nesvetailova, Reader in International Politics at City University
London, shared their opinions with Radio VR.
Download mp3
Victor Mizin: I do not share the optimism. It is a good thing that a
ceasefire is now installed but the positions of the two sides are so
widely apart. Kiev is, of course, for a united Ukraine and the people
in Donbas want something like independence, if not joining Russia. So,
what we will see there? Hopefully, not the resumption of fighting, but
many experts predict that it will be something like another frozen
conflict, probably on the model of Transnistria or Nagorno-Karabakh.
If we can predict anything, do you think this moment of calm is sustainable?
Victor Mizin: I hope so, because the Ukrainian army just has no
equipment and no weapons to continue fighting. And I think it was the
major reason for Kiev to come to the ceasefire. But with the planned
elections in the entire Ukraine, which those separatist regions do not
want to take part in, there would be more and more disengagement and
the crisis would only be exacerbated. So, I'm on a more pessimist side
here.
Are all the points of the 12-point plan being followed?
Vyaceslav Pazdnyak: My impression is that the plan is being followed.
The most important thing is that there is a ceasefire. As for the
implementation, I think it is going to take a lot of time and effort
to follow through, and press every point to its ultimate completion.
Some experts are using the term "Minsk peace process". What do you
make out of that phenomenon and where will it bring the Ukrainian
conflict?
Vyaceslav Pazdnyak: First of all, it is rather arguable that we are
facing the so-called Minsk process. The Ukrainian crisis is a very
strange phenomenon and it cannot be framed into some sort of a
classical concept of a crisis or a conflict. Minsk has been the place
for consultations. Now, as the consultations proceed further on, we
can label it as a process, but, normally, we are discussing conflict
settlement processes when we have not consultations, but full-fledged
mechanisms of the negotiations.
So far, Minsk only potentially is a process of a conflict settlement
as such. We have kind of a preparation for a possible process and, in
that sense, Minsk is a fairly successful beginning. What will the
future bring is again a disputable question. We have too many factors
to consider and one would be in a difficult position to predict the
outcome.
Petro Poroshenko mentioned that there's been no fighting for the first
time. Is this a sign of a long-lasting peace and a good development in
order to lift the sanctions?
Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova: There are two sides to this, as usual.
Sanctions in the world economy have historically proven to be a little
bit sticky. So, whilst they are more or less straightforward to get
introduced, it does take some time to get rid of them completely. It
will be a relief if some of them do get removed for various
international business contracts, but it will not be one-size package
being lifted from Russia.
On the other hand there certainly are forces within the EU, and they
are quite powerful forces, who would like to see this happen. But it
is a matter of international negotiation and there are a lot of
variables in this conflict that are, unfortunately, unpredictable or
not entirely calculable. And the ceasefire or the lasting peace really
depends on people on the ground, and so far they have proven not to be
entirely controllable.
Poroshenko was speaking about the Ukrainian EU integration, but at the
same time it seems that it would be quite a bumpy road.
Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova: There are political aspirations and plans,
but there are businesses and finances and debts on the ground. The
Ukrainian economy is largely destroyed. I've just recently revised the
8-priority plan that the Ukrainian President has identified for the
country. And he is talking about a complete reform of the state. So,
it is a very long-term ambition and no organization, including the EU,
would like to have a failing state in its orbit.
Andrei Sushentsov: It is actually not clear what is the overall
strategy that Kiev currently has towards the rebels' controlled
territories. Kiev has already said that it wants to maintain a unitary
character of the Ukrainian state and doesn't want to make any
sacrifices. Right now it seems that Kiev wants to postpone the overall
settlement of this conflict for at least several years, when it either
would have enough resources to unilaterally conclude this conflict
militarily, or some events or a situation will come that would favour
the Kiev position more.