DEBKA file
Jan 7 2008

Due in Washington: Turkey's Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ergin

7 Jan. On Jan. 8, hours before he heads out on his Middle East tour,
President George W. Bush will receive Turkish president Abdullah
Gul in the White House with full honors as the first Turkish head of
state to visit since Suleyman Demirel in 1996.

The range of topics to be covered by the visit is indicated by the
size of the Turkish presidential party and his appointments.

Gul will be accompanied by his wife, foreign minister Ali Babacan,
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Hilmi Guler and Economy
Ministers Mehmet Simsek, as well as Rear Adm. Alaattin Sever, head
of the General Staff's Intelligence Department.

Before meeting Bush, Gul will have talks with Vice President Dick
Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, as well as defense
security Robert Gates.

The warming of US-Turkish ties in recent weeks owes much to the
deepening intelligence relations between the two countries. It comes
in the form of the ongoing handover of US intelligence to Turkey on
the movements of the Kurdish Workers Party-PKK in northern Iraq.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report that this is Washington's
reward to Ankara for keeping its promise to Washington to refrain
from a large-scale invasion of northern Iraqi Kurdistan.

This arrangement is both restrictive and fragile.

The PKK's northern Iraqi havens are not rooted out and its terrorists
are still able to operate inside Turkey, in Central Asia and in
Europe. A single devastating PKK terrorist attack emanating from any
of these places would force the Turks to hit northern Iraqi targets
really hard - and so put paid to US-Turkish intelligence cooperation.

For now, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports, the US data flowing to Ankara
is extensive and diverse. It is not limited to static PKK sites,
such as bases and training facilities, but is specific enough for
the Turkish Air Force to pinpoint moving Kurdish targets, especially
of infiltrators approaching the border for terrorist operations or
smuggling suicide teams across.

This flow keeps Turkish airborne fighter-bombers and helicopters over
Iraqi Kurdistan fully abreast almost around the clock and ready to
hit a target instantly upon receipt of a US surveillance tip-off.

One Turkish intelligence source said that armed PKK bands stand no
chance of eluding American oversight wherever they move in northern
Iraq, unless they are disguised as unarmed civilians. Hundreds of
US sensors are scattered around the regions of the Kurdish hideouts
in the northern and eastern Iraqi Kurdistan. They beam up a stream
of data to US drones, which transfer them straight to the Turkish
airborne hunters.

This joint effort has reduced by more than 60 percent the level of
PKK terrorist attacks inside southern Turkey.

Ankara has mad its satisfaction known: A senior Turkish diplomat in
Washington said Wednesday, Jan. 2: "Obviously President Gul's visit
to the White House will reconfirm the importance attached to our
bilateral ties. We are satisfied with the new intelligence-sharing
system and looking forward to deepening our cooperation."

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources report that Gul will be followed
by Turkey's Deputy Chief of General Staff Gen. Ergin Saygun later this
month. In addition to discussing the state of intelligence cooperation
between the two countries, he will co-chair the 21st annual bilateral
High-level Defense Group (HLDG) meeting, which takes place this year
in the US capital.

Despite the cordial words, our sources report that the Americans
have quietly advised Iraqi Kurdish leaders to abstain from aiding
the Turkish campaign against the PKK sanctuaries. Leave them be,
say US advisers; keep them as a card up your sleeve in case you need
one against the Turks.

Furthermore, the Turkish president's talks in Washington will not
be all sweetness and light. He will ask the Bush administration
to continue its efforts to prevent the passage of a congressional
resolution recognizing Armenian claims of genocide under the
Ottoman Empire. In New York, Gul will meet representatives of Jewish
organizations including the Anti-Defamation League to complain aboutits
role in the resolution. Gul will also discuss with Secretary General
Ban Ki-moon UN-led efforts to reunited Cyprus.

The Kurdish separatists have meanwhile laid plans to escape outside
the range of US intelligence-backed Turkish air strikes.

Our sources have picked up rumors going round northern Iraq that PKK
leaders are acting on a decision they reached in November to move their
bases from the Qandil mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan to the predominantly
ethnic Armenian South Caucasian region of Nagorno-Karabakh, over
which Armenia and Azerbaijan are formally at war.

These rumors were supported by PKK defectors who turned themselves
in to Turkish forces. The PKK is reported to be eying Shusha, Fizuli
and Lachin for its new bases.

Reports of a possible creation of a Kurdish autonomous district in
the Armenian-inhabited Lachin and Kelbajar regions have been dismissed
as a pipe dream by some experts. Others say it is possible.

No transfer of Kurdish rebel bases has been confirmed as yet. A group
of PKK chiefs is reported to have visited a dozen Kurdish villages
in the Karabakh region to sound out chances of support. One of the
issues they reportedly checked out was whether they would be allowed
to strike against northern Turkey via Azerbaijan.

These reports have meanwhile raised a political furor in Baku, where
Azerbaijani members of parliament are demanding a clear statement from
the Ministry of National Security on their government's intentions
with regard to PKK bases.

High-ranking state officials have been accused by several Azerbaijani
media of supporting PKK terrorism.