What Borders Will Armenian Army Draw?

Naira Hayrumyan, Political Commentator
Comments - 30 January 2015, 13:00


The Minsk Group Co-Chairs Called on Azerbaijan to Observe its
Commitments to a Peaceful Resolution of the Conflict

OSCE Chairperson-in-Office DaÄ?iÄ? voices concern over recent
developments on Armenian-Azerbaijani border and Line of Contact

Azerbaijan did not listen to the call of the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs and continues to violate the ceasefire. Last night, for
example, it shot at a civilian car and attempted a
reconnaissance-in-force in Tavush, Armenia.

What will the Minsk Group do if it becomes convinced that Azerbaijan
ignored all calls? Is OSCE likely to expand the mandate of the
personal representative of the chairman-in-office or is OSCE preparing
more decisive actions, such as stationing `peacekeepers'?

At present, the status quo is maintained thanks to the Armenian armed
forces. The Armenian minister of defense Seiran Ohanyan has recently
repeated that Armenia does not need a third force to maintain peace,
and the Armenian army fulfills its objectives.

The issue of stationing `third forces' in the region is regularly
brought up. So far Russia's intentions were in focus to which the
other two co-chairs France and the U.S. opposed. This is one of the
points of the suggested agreement on settlement of the Karabakh
conflict that has not been agreed.

The mediators do not stop discussing the composition of the future
peacekeeping mission in Karabakh. There has been a proposal that the
troops of the co-chair countries will not participate in the mission.
The key issue is, however, the place of location of forces. The
principles of Madrid envisaged handing some territories to Azerbaijan
and station the troops on the new border.

The issue of handing the territories, however, seems to leave the
actual agenda. It is related to the determination of the Armenian
armed forces to `defend every inch of land' and change of the attitude
of the international community towards Azerbaijan which is in
isolation.

Recently Ilham Aliyev has made a speech indicating that the
international community is `breathing' in Azerbaijan's back. Aliyev is
afraid of not only change of the regime but also the collapse of
present Azerbaijan. This prospect is not fantasy, considering that the
international recognition of Karabakh is the collapse of Azerbaijan's
`territorial integrity'.

It is hard to tell how Russia treats such a prospect. Most probably,
Moscow can see the tendency and would like to participate in further
development as a full-right party.

The statements of the OSCE co-chairs and chairman-in-office indicate
the necessity to return to peace talks. Apparently, the political
process has been suspended due to one of the parties, and the
co-chairs wish to resume the talks.

The negotiations suppose recognition of the independence of Karabakh
by Azerbaijan, in other words, Baku has to recognize NKR. IT is not
acceptable for the regime of Aliyev, though it is inevitable, and
Aliyev has decided to stake everything and surrender in the battle.
The statement of the co-chairs is evidence that Aliyev is not making
decisions.

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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress