June 1, 2011 - 21:12 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net - "As the Kazan meeting approaches, the stakes are
raised for both peace and war in the Caucasus," expert Thomas de Waal
wrote in an article published by National Interest.

The Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia - Serzh Sargsyan,
Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev - are slated to meet in June in the
Russian city of Kazan, the next in a series of trilateral meetings
on the Karabakh conflict settlement.

There are certain expectations with respect to the meeting, taking
into consideration the Deaville statement adopted by the leaders
of the OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair countries, who said "the time has
arrived for all the sides to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to take
a decisive step towards a peaceful settlement."

The statement also reads that "further delay [in the settlement]
would only call into question the commitment of the sides to reach
an agreement."

According to Thomas de Waal, it will be tough to construct a joint
postconflict settlement for Karabakh. "This will be especially
important if the framework plan is agreed and there comes the
inevitable hiatus between an initial agreement and progress on the
ground. The spoilers will rush in to try to destroy it," he said.

Judging from the established situation, the Azerbaijani leadership can
be understood among "the spoilers," as it needs a war in Karabakh to
keep power and does not conceal this, continuously threatening with
resumption of hostilities in Karabakh. Thus, a peaceful settlement
of the conflict is not within the plans of Baku and Azerbaijan may
try to destroy it.

However, the Deaville statement indicates that Obama, Medvedev
and Sarkosy have taken into consideration also this possibility:
"The use of force created the current situation of confrontation
and instability. Its use again would only bring more suffering and
devastation, and would be condemned by the international community.

Thus, even if Aliyev ventures upon a war without permission of the
superpowers, they will not stand on the sidelines. And due to the
recent developments in Middle East, specifically, the ouster of
undesirable leaders there, Aliyev cannot but understand that should
he launch a war in Karabakh to keep his post, he may be deprived of
it very soon.

From: Baghdasarian