Naira Hayrumyan

Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 17:15:45 - 30/05/2012

Will Russia support "Kocharyan's project" in Armenia? This is one of
the main intrigues in Armenia.

According to some press reports, Kocharyan waited for a few days in
Moscow for a meeting with Putin and it is still unknown whether the
meeting took place or not. But definitely it depends on this whether
Kocharyan will or will not run for president in 2013.

His intention is proved by the behavior of the Prosperous Armenia Party
which entered into confrontation with Serzh Sargsyan's Republican
Party and did not state to support him in0 the next presidential
election. Gagik Tsarukyan would hardly be so stubborn for no reason. It
is evident that he is paving the way for Kocharyan's nomination. He
would have never done the same for other people or even for himself.

Now, Kocharyan needs guarantees from Putin to run for the president.

Most probably, he has not received clear guarantees so far. But
something has changed on these days, and perhaps some guarantees were
nevertheless given.

Perhaps, Putin's visit to Armenia due in September will be determined
by this. The presidential campaign kicks off in September, and Putin's
visit may change the status quo in Armenia. It will be enough for
Putin to sit near Kocharyan, not Sargsyan to make it clear to the
political class of Armenia that Putin supports him.

Putin will attend the exercise of CSTO Collective Rapid Reaction
Forces in Armenia. Nikolay Bordyuzha delivered Serzh Sargsyan's
invitation to the presidents of CSTO countries to attend the exercise
in Armenia. The Collective Rapid Reaction Forces have been created also
for the prevention of unrests in member states. Putin's presence may
be a signal for Armenia that the forces could be tried out in Armenia.

Apparently, one of the presidents of the most influential European
countries will also visit Armenia, such as France, and again in
September0000 when the presidential candidates will be known. Or
Sargsyan will be invited to France, which can give some guarantees to
Sargsyan not to be "afraid" of Putin's visit. The guarantees may be
major investments, signing of the Association Agreement or the Free
Trade Agreement.

Anyway, it is evident that a real Russian-Western war will be launched
in Armenia during the presidential election. It may end without even
starting if Putin does not give guarantees to Kocharyan or if Europe
does not support Kocharyan. No one seems to have retreated.