By Pyotr Romanov

Focus News, Bulgaria
May 4 2006

The Paris meeting on Iran, which the media dubbed "secret" because
journalists were barred from it from start to finish, ended in failure
as expected.

The positions of the sides remained the same. The United States wants
the UN Security Council to pass the toughest possible resolution on
Iran's nuclear file. By and large, the Europeans are leaning toward
the U.S. proposal, while permanent members of the Security Council
Moscow and Beijing insist on talks. The negotiators were trying hard
to conceal what has long become an open secret.

Trying to help Beijing and Moscow out of the predicament,
U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton has suggested that they should
abstain from voting on the problem at the Security Council. If the
Council is torn apart by contradictions and fails to exert pressure
on Iran, the U.S. and other countries may themselves punish Iran.

Other U.S. officials have expressed the same opinion. U.S. State
Department spokesman Sean McCormack has just made another statement
to this effect.

Moscow also has to adjust its position. Chairman of the Duma committee
on international affairs Konstantin Kosachyov has just declared
that Iran's ostentatious refusal to comply with the Security Council
requirements was fraught with serious consequences. He did not rule
out sanctions against Iran.

It is even more interesting to hear the opinions of intelligence
officers, military men and independent experts. U.S. intelligence
spokesmen openly admit that they know very little about Iran; such
statements, however, should not calm Tehran down because they clearly
show that the U.S. and its foremost allies are channeling all the
necessary financial, material and intellectual resources into the
effort. It is hardly a coincidence that when U.S.-Iranian dispute
reached its peak, the military announced successful testing at the
Eglin air base in Florida of the 10-ton Massive Ordnance Air Burst
(MOAB), which the press immediately dubbed the Mother of All Bombs.

The use of tactical nuclear arms, primarily anti-bunker weapons, has
not been ruled out, either. It is not surprising that Moscow insists
on negotiations - it does not want a nuclear war near its borders,
all the more so since nuclear issue is no bluff. Former U.S.

Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that the American military
should analyze all options against Iran, including the use of nuclear

It is not merely the doctrine of a preventive strike that is pushing
the U.S. to be tough. In effect, the doctrine itself reflects the
painful Pearl Harbor syndrome, and a highly dubious assumption that
it was possible to nip Hitler in the bud if the U.S. had intervened
in Europe earlier. The trauma inflicted on the U.S. by the barbarous
hostage seizure in Iran has not healed, either. Good old Freud is
here again.

Finally, the Americans are worried by some forecasts. Zbigniew
Brzezinski thinks that the U.S. will wage war with Iran for 30 years
and lose its world supremacy as a result. This prediction suggests the
conclusion - either not go to war at all, or strike without mercy and
win a quick victory. Thus, the American Eagle is now looking around
with particular attention and is ready to nip in the bud anything it
perceives as an attack. Invasion of Iran on the basis of unverified
data may be just a prelude, all the more so since presumption of
innocence does not apply to Iran. Defending its right to a civilian
nuclear program, Tehran has already said too much and got bogged down
in contradictions.

Even some independent Russian experts believe that war is inevitable.

Chairman of the Presidium of the Institute of Globalization Problems
Mikhail Delyagin said: "I think that the actions, which have been
taken, and the propaganda accompaniment, which we have been hearing,
give us enough grounds to predict that the decision on a missile
attack... has been made. Considering the election race, this should
happen in late spring or summer."

It is rumored that in Yerevan, capital of Armenia, wealthy Iranians
of Azeri background have already rushed to buy housing, just in case...

In turn, the press is trying to predict what Iran will do in return.

Quoting its sources in Tehran, the British Sunday Times writes that
Iran is ready for an adequate reply. There are 40,000 trained suicide
bombers, who will attack American, Israeli and British targets, 29 of
which have already been selected. The Iranian president is talking
about an asymmetrical blow at Israel. Tehran has also repeatedly
threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.

To sum up, Pearl Harbor and the good old Freud are spelling a lot
of trouble.