06 May 06

The president of the National Aviation Society Dmitri Atbashyan,
a meritorious pilot of the Soviet Union, gave his suppositions on
the crash of A320 on May 6.

"I rely on clearly reported facts. We do not know what records the
black boxes contain, we do not know what happened. We know that the
plane plunged into the water at an extremely high speed 6 km from
the shore. In addition, the fall was so heavy that the plane broke
to small pieces. The plane could break to small pieces for two reasons.

If the plane were airtight, even a light blow would make it explode.

Second, it could break into small pieces on plunging into the water
at a high speed. It is a fact that the plane was out of control
when it fell into the water. If on falling into the water the plane
were controllable, the pilot would manage to report that they were
running out of fuel and he decided to land on water, etc." and land on
water. All the pilots are trained to land on water, both theoretically
and on special equipment.

Why did the plane fall? There can be different reasons. First, they
lost speed. The plane stays in the air as long as it has the minimum
speed required to stay in the air. If the speed is below the minimum,
the train falls on a spiral trajectory. Modern planes cannot resist
the fall, they need 1-1.5 km to regain control of the plane. They did
not have so much distance. In other words, if the plane is falling,
the disaster is inevitable.

When the aerodynamics of a plane is disrupted, the minimum speed may
be different for a dry, wet, frozen plane. A wet plane is dangerous.

It is very difficult to fly in the rain. Sometimes the rain does not
reach the plane. Sometimes the rain reaches the plane and increases
resistance. In such cases the power of the engine may not be enough
to overcome the extra resistance.

Thunder and lightning could also affect the plane. Lightning conductors
are installed on the wings of the plane to discharge natural lightning
and charges, occurring between the wings of the plane. There have been
cases when the examination of the fragments of crashed planes showed
that one part or another was missing. For instance, there have been
cases when the pipe inside the wing, which supplies pressure equal
to the atmospheric pressure, was shorter by 3 meters. The crashed
A320 was not new and had been repaired.

It is impossible to assert that the plane plunged into the water at
a 60° angle. If the visibility was 3000 m, and the plane plunged
into the sea 6000 m from the coast, who could calculate the angle of
the fall?"