KARABAKH NEGOTIATIONS NOT TO REACH BREAKTHROUGH IN NEAREST FUTURE - ANALYST

news.az
April 30 2010
Azerbaijan

Sergey Markedonov News.Az interviews Sergey Markedonov, head of the
ethnic relations department at Russia's Institute of Political and
Military Analysis.


By suspending ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols, Armenia
has demonstrated obstinacy in the issue of the Karabakh conflict
through its irrational policy. However, Turkey does not want this
issue to be considered separately from the Karabakh conflict. What
do you think is the essence of the game of these two states and which
role have the United States, Russia and France played in this issue?


I do not think that these issues should be settled separately. On
the other hand, it is difficult to settle them together, because the
multiplication of difficulty occurs. In fact, these are different
conflicts and theoretically, it is desirable to divide them. Every
conflict is unique and its direct participants can reach an optimal
solution. But in practice I do not believe that this separation is
quite possible. We have witnessed that in the reality this process
has started to have a greater influence on the problem around Karabakh
and in turn the process of normalization. What is the role of the big
countries? I wouldn't exaggerate it. Frankly speaking, I am not among
the political scientists who see the superpowers as the main players
in the Caucasus combinations. There are such actors, but today most
of them have no will or resources to form the new status quo because
the old status has collapsed during the five-day war in Georgia.


On April 24 US President Barack Obama did not mention the issue of
"Armenian genocide" in his speech. As is known, in anticipation of
this day Armenians put all pressure on Turkey for this statement
to be voiced. But this did not occur. Which means of pressure will
Armenia use now to apply them against Turkey?


I think today Armenia and Turkey have reached everything they could
have reached. They cannot reach anything more. I think in this
situation Armenia will expect any conjuncture more profitable for it.

As for whether the United States recognizes the genocide or not,
I think this is not the matter. The "genocide" has already been
recognized by some countries and I do not think it is necessary for
all countries to recognize it. For example, Jewish holocaust was not
recognized by Iran, but will anyone state that there was no holocaust?

No, this is an issue of interpretation. Recognition of one country is
enough-this is a modern information world and I think the situation
should not be exaggerated. When Armenia forms any conjuncture in this
issue, like it was in 2008 for example, the process will go further.

Otherwise, I think this issue will be stalled for a long time.


The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs have recently held negotiations
in Yerevan and Khankendi, failing to visit Baku however. By some
information, Baku expects the Armenian side to respond on Madrid
principles. Characterizing the last version of the Madrid principles,
Azerbaijani FM Elmar Mammadyarov said on the first stage the Armenian
armed forces must withdraw their troops from five regions and 13
villages of the Lachin region. After the withdrawal of troops the
Armenian side must restore all communications. The roads will open upon
the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Lachin and Kelbajar. The status
of Nagorno Karabakh will be discussed after the return of Azerbaijani
refugees to the places of their residence. Now the Azerbaijani side
is waiting for the response of official Yerevan. Do you think the
Armenian leadership will agree to sign this document and will there
be any achievements in this issue?


I view this skeptically, because the very document of Madrid principles
is quite raw and it has many points that contradict to each other. The
Madrid principles have designated the sharp problems around which the
trading is held. I think there will not be any serious breakthrough
in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress