AZERBAIJANI MILITARY EXPERT: ARMENIAN ARMY FACES THE FULL-SCALE COLLAPSE

Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/ 67390.html
May 6 2010
Azerbaijan

Interview with Azerbaijani military expert Mehdi Mehdiyev.

According to the Armenian press, recently colonel of the Armenian
armed forces, commander of a battalion of Armavir military unit was
hospitalized in a military hospital in Yerevan with four stab wounds.

He reportedly attempted to commit suicide after he was "punished for
insulting remarks against Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian." ...

I assess it as a leakage of painful information for the Armenian
side which reveals depth of problems in the army of this country. The
incident mirrors the political situation in Armenia where freedom of
speech and thought is violated and where clan and lynchings, inherent
in the Middle Ages, still exists. I am convinced that such cases will
continue to occur in the Armenian army, because the collapsing process
is already underway in it. This incident is clear evidence of lack of
discipline, respect for the high ranking officers. Ordinary soldiers
are ready to humiliate their military commanders on the orders of
top brass military unit.

It is not difficult to imagine what might happen to this officer on
the front, in case of full-scale hostilities. At the same time,it
is not difficult to imagine the fate of other officers who voice
their discontent with the status quo in the Armenian army, one way
or another. Their names do not appear in media because such incidents
are hidden from the Armenian public.

It is clear that, along with the decline of morals and lack of
discipline in the Armenian army, there are also financial and staff
problems. Precisely these factors help explain increasing number
of incidents in the Armenian army similar to what occurred with the
commander of a battalion of Armavir military unit.

The gap between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the sphere economy and
living standards is growing each year. Given that the army cannot
exist in isolation from the economic indicators of the state, can it
be said that over the years, the advantage of the Azerbaijani armed
forces over the Armenian is simply overwhelming?

Of course. This is a realistic projection, which is based on an
analysis of the growing economic superiority of Azerbaijan over
Armenia.

If Armenia population leaves the country in large numbers, if the
country's budget is formed by borrowings, and its citizens survive
due to diaspora handouts, it is ridiculous to say that the Armenian
army has remained aloof from these problems. After all, the purchase
and maintenance of military equipment and property costs much just as
much as training of military personnel. Armenia simply has no money
to do this while Azerbaijan does. We have understanding of methods to
achieve the final goal. This is restoration of territorial integrity
of Azerbaijan through political and other means. And this process is
making good progress. The growth of the power of the Azerbaijani army
and its superiority over the Armenian army is now an irreversible
process.

In your opinion, can a mutiny happen in the Armenian army which would
seriously complicate the whole political situation in this country?

This is quite possible. After all, there is a fairly serious discontent
in the remaining Armenian population. Plus, the Armenian opposition
rightly criticizes the authorities. Naturally, all this in one day
may cause the army, which still stands all the hardships of life in
Armenia, to start a mutiny.

But why a number of Armenian experts talk more and more about the
inevitability of a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war, calling the "exact
date" in advance?

This shows that the Armenian side is aware of the growing supremacy of
the Azerbaijani army over its own army. In addition, though indirectly,
Armenia indirectly admits that justice will prevail in the settlement
of Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
finally and Azerbaijan's territory will be de-occupied.

Therefore, Armenia says Azerbaijan must undertake obligation to solve
the conflict peacefully. But it keeps silent about the fact that 20%
of Azerbaijani territories was captured not through peace, but as
a result of war and genocide of peaceful population in Khojaly. But
without identifying the causes of some phenomenon, it is impossible
to deal with its consequences. And therefore, Azerbaijan has a right
enshrined in the international law to restore its territorial integrity
through all possible means.