"AMERICAN METHODS AND SCHEMES SIMPLY DON'T WORK IN SOUTH CAUCASUS"

Today
http://www.today.az/news/pol itics/68146.html
May 18 2010
Azerbaijan

Interview with Director-General of the Information and Analytical
Center for Study of the Social and Political Processes in post-Soviet
area at the Moscow State University (MSU) named after Lomonosov,
vice-dean of the History faculty of the MSU, editor-in-chief of
information-analytical portal "Bulletin of the Caucasus" Alexei Vlasov.

What are the key points of change of the geopolitical agenda in the
South Caucasus after the failure of Turkish-Armenian process and
establishing close partnerships between Russia and Turkey?

Failure of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations is not a deadlock in
the Armenian-Turkish relations, it is the failure of American policy
to impose a certain unreasonable scenario for region without taking
into account the interests of direct participants. Sooner or later
the Armenian-Turkish dialogue will be resumed, as well as the problem
of Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved. And Americans will no longer
act as the sole moderator of this process, since it is obvious that
those methods and schemes that they use in their policy in the South
Caucasus don't work. And that means we need different moderators and
players which can contribute to processes.

Against this background, Russia has an excellent opportunity to offer
its agenda, and, as a result of the meeting of Turkish and Russian
leadership, it will not single-handedly formed agenda, and attempt to
make a certain consensus of interest taking into account Ankara. This
means that the axis of Russia-Turkey in the near future will be a
important factor determining the position of external forces in the
South Caucasus.

How such kind of interaction can help in resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict?

Of course, the key to resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is Baku
and Yerevan. But if foreign arbitrators have a strong will to act as
honest broker in resolving this conflict, if there is a guarantee that
nobody will play a double game, then there is hope that sooner or later
the sides will clearly understand that the solution is possible only
through taking into account the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan
and compromises from both sides.

How do you consider the prospect of cooperation between Georgian
opposition leaders and the Kremlin, given the constant interaction
of Georgian several opposition leaders with Russia?

Nogaideli and Nino Burjanadze act like politicians, trying to diversify
foreign policy.

If Nogaideli is not the most serious pretender for future leadership,
but Burjanadze is known as a strong politician for a long time who
has the support on Capitol Hill and strong political background. Now
she decided to enlist the support of the Kremlin by getting bonuses
and positioning herself as the leader of the moderate opposition.

It is impossible to reproach her in sale of national interests. So
Burjanadze thinks that when the constitutional term of President
Saakashvili will be over, there will be no worthy pretender
for the leadership in his entourage. Here the mechanisms which
she systematically accumulates will work. She will be perceived
sufficiently in the Kremlin and Washington.

However, she ignores the fact that Saakashvili, as a person who can
not exist without power, will not leave his post. When charismatic
politician Saakashvili resists Burjanadze's intelligent policy, the
crowd will choose Saakashvili. So, Saakashvili has all the chances,
with the support of people, to change the constitution, looking for
ways to stay in power and keep all the levers in his hands.

How do you consider the prospect of developments in Kyrgyzstan,
given the continuing riots and confrontation between the north and
south of the country?

Judging by Russian Special Representative in Kyrgyzstan Vladimir
Rushailo's visit to Kyrgyzstan, external forces, including the
Collective Security Treaty Organization, as an instrument for
maintaining order and stability, will be involved to stabilize the
situation in the republic.

The current leadership of the country is unable to overcome the split
within the Kyrgyz Republic between north and south. Each week the
possibility of civil war and a split of the state is increasing. It
is impossible to restore stability before holding elections without
the support of Russia and Kazakhstan. The best institute for this is
the CSTO. The United States understand that the alternative to CSTO's
intervention is chaos and civil war, but given the fact that there
is U.S military base in Kyrgyzstan, Washington does not want to risk
the safety of its people on its territory. So, perhaps participation
of Russia and Kazakhstan will be welcomed by the U.S.