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ANKARA: If We Fail To Understand Egypt, We'll Lose It

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  • ANKARA: If We Fail To Understand Egypt, We'll Lose It

    IF WE FAIL TO UNDERSTAND EGYPT, WE'LL LOSE IT

    Today's Zaman, Turkey
    July 30 2013

    by İdris Bal*

    Anti-Morsi protesters chant slogans during a mass protest to support
    the army in Tahrir Square in Cairo on July 26.Anti-Morsi protesters
    chant slogans during a mass protest to support the army in Tahrir
    Square in Cairo on July 26. (Photo: Mohamed Abd El Ghany, Reuters)

    30 July 2013 /

    In the aftermath of the event that started the Arab Spring -- a street
    vendor in Tunisia setting himself on fire in protest -- people spoke
    up and raised their voices for democracy and freedom in North Africa,
    the Middle East, Libya, Egypt and Syria.

    It could be said, however, that the reflection of the Arab Spring in
    Syria has taken on a different dimension.

    During the Arab Spring, many sought to identify the reasons for its
    revolutions; while some argued that the uprisings were part of an
    American plot, some others drew attention to domestic dynamics. On the
    other hand, another matter of discussion concerned whether democratic
    regimes would be established in the region and whether the revolutions
    would lead to stability and development.

    Egypt was one of the Arab Spring countries. The administration changed
    in Egypt; Mubarak had to resign after the revolution; he is now in jail
    and on trial. Democratic elections were held in Egypt, and Mohammed
    Morsi was elected president. Important new developments took place
    in Egypt, where the Arab Spring succeeded and regime change was smooth.

    Then the people took to the streets to call for Morsi's resignation.

    In consideration of the protests, the Egyptian army gave some time
    to Morsi and his opponents. At the end of this time, the military
    staged a coup against Morsi. This coup is considered a step backward
    in the Arab Spring process, though some view it as a step forward for
    the Arab Spring. Why did this happen in Egypt -- why was an elected
    president ousted?

    It should be noted that some preconditions must be fulfilled for
    democracy to take root in any given country. For democracy to operate
    smoothly, there should be no trace of sectarianism, ethnic nationalism
    or tribalism. Ethnic, sectarian and tribal tendencies and priorities
    play a role in voting behaviors, and people pay more attention to
    their micro-identities than concrete proposals.

    For a proper democracy, the educational system is also important.

    Democracy is composed of a series of elections that starts in primary
    school student councils* and goes all the way up to presidential
    elections. For sound elections to have sound outcomes, voters must be
    able to make their choices freely and remain independent of external
    interference. This is only possible with a successful education system
    and an educated populace.

    Doing away with economic injustices

    In a proper democracy, there shouldn't be dramatic income disparities;
    nor should there be any economic injustices, because people who are
    unable to meet their basic needs can't be expected to act reasonably
    and consistently -- even if they are well educated. Such people can
    be manipulated by marginal or illegal groups; as a result, they may
    join extremist groups and marginal organizations.

    Further preconditions for democracy are freedom of expression,
    freedom of assembly, plurality and a pluralist society. In other
    words, there should be a free press, diverse media outlets, civil
    society organizations, think tanks, free universities, criticism and
    democratic culture.

    First, it is known that there are some problems regarding pluralist
    society, education levels, democratic culture and income distribution
    in Egypt. This creates serious problems in terms of democratization,
    the establishment of a democratic regime and the operation of
    democratic institutions.

    Second, the people have broken down the wall of fear in Arab Spring
    countries, including Egypt; they are now able to take to the streets
    to protest and resist the police and military. In countries lacking
    democratic culture and traditions, this psychological state of mind is
    a huge danger. In this environment, groups that fail to achieve their
    goals in elections seek to accomplish them on the streets by violent
    methods instead of striving to get desirable results at the polls.

    This is what happened in Egypt. They used the method that proved
    effective in toppling Hosni Mubarak to oust the elected government.

    Third, the people are the source of legitimacy in democracies.

    Legitimacy is secured by democratic elections. Domestic groups called
    for elections and democratization in Egypt through demonstrations
    that were also supported by external dynamics. However, the West
    wasn't pleased with the election of Morsi, a candidate of the Muslim
    Brotherhood. In fact, a similar situation took place in Palestine,
    where the West supported the inclusion of Hamas in the election,
    believing that this would normalize the organization and remove its
    radical elements. However, when Hamas won the election and came to
    power, the West turned its back on the group and imposed an embargo.

    Similarly, Morsi's success didn't please the West; as a result of this,
    they didn't oppose the coup in Egypt. This encouraged the coup makers.

    The privileged position of the army

    Fourth, even though the administration changed in Egypt, the army still
    holds a special and privileged position in the country. The military
    controls one-third of the economy through its ownership of large
    companies. The military controls many enterprises and corporations in
    different sectors. Considering the direct impact of the military on
    politics and the economy, it could be said that the Egyptian army is
    extremely influential in domestic politics. The Egyptian army toppled
    Morsi by leveraging this privileged position. In consultation with
    the Egyptian army, the West tacitly endorsed the coup.

    Fifth, because there are no democratic traditions in Egypt and
    the country had been governed by one man for decades, the people
    suffer from a lack of democratic experience and maturity. From this
    perspective, Morsi and his supporters made some major mistakes. Of
    course, it is a fact that no mistake by an elected leader justifies
    nondemocratic measures like military coups. Morsi should have acted
    more carefully and prudently in his relations with the opposition and
    other political actors in the aftermath of his election victory. He
    should have adopted a more conciliatory approach and style.

    However, this didn't happen. For instance, in the constitutional
    commission meeting on Nov. 29, 2012, in which opposition members
    did not participate, commission members adopted a 236-article draft
    constitution without any public or parliamentary consultations or
    thorough deliberations. And within two weeks, a referendum was held on
    the draft constitution; despite a boycott by the opposition, Morsi did
    not retreat. Only 32 percent of the people voted in the referendum;
    64 percent of those voters approved the draft constitution. Morsi
    could have taken a more constructive approach in his relations with
    the opposition. In another move, Morsi announced that presidential
    decisions would not be subject to any judicial review; in consideration
    of growing reactions, he had to retreat from this.

    The Egyptian economy got worse during the Morsi administration.

    Declining currency revenues, worsening unemployment, devaluation of
    the Egyptian currency, power outages and other similar developments
    were clear signs of debilitation in the domestic economy. However,
    as the winner of democratic elections, Morsi held that he had full
    authority over both domestic and foreign policy. The opposition and
    new political balances were not taken into consideration. Democratic
    values were violated in domestic politics due to Morsi's excessive
    self-confidence, which led the government to take the wrong steps in
    foreign policy as well. For instance, one month before he was ousted,
    Morsi called for Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's resignation.

    Is it possible to reverse what has happened?

    As a result of many domestic and external factors, the elected
    government in Egypt was toppled. Is it possible to reverse the
    process? Could the protests and demonstrations calling for the reversal
    of the coup succeed? Morsi supporters took to the streets to express
    their support for elections and the democratic process. They are still
    on the streets in support of Morsi. Some Muslim Brotherhood members
    had hoped that the process could be reversed, and that Morsi would
    be returned to the presidency as a result of their fierce dedication
    to public protest. Some countries, including Turkey, also hoped this
    would happen. Some still hold onto this hope.

    This occurred when the Soviets had to withdraw their troops after
    coups in different countries in the past. However, the conditions
    of the Soviet cases are not present in the Egyptian case. Not all
    on the Egyptian streets strongly oppose the coup; on the contrary,
    supporters of the coup flowed into Tahrir Square to celebrate the
    military intervention. On the other hand, others filled squares to
    oppose the coup. In other words, people are not united in opposing the
    coup; some support it, while others are calling for the resumption
    of the democratic process. Thus, the coup makers feel what they did
    was right. This enables them to present the coup and themselves as
    protectors of the people.

    The global community viewed the coup as a fully understandable
    development rather than something that should be responded to
    with an economic embargo and diplomatic isolation. They even made
    statements that pleased and relieved the coup makers. Likewise,
    regional actors like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates
    extended diplomatic and material support to Egypt and the military
    administration. This encourages and strengthens the coup makers.

    Considering the economic and political power of the Egyptian army,
    it does not seem realistic to expect it to withdraw. The only
    possibility is a reaction against the coup from military personnel
    who are close to the Muslim Brotherhood. But we don't have indicators
    suggesting this will happen. In consideration of these factors, it is
    not realistic to expect that the military will retreat and reinstate
    the Morsi administration.

    The greatest risk right now in Egypt is that the parties will resort
    to violence, and that Egypt, under the influence of the Brotherhood,
    will follow the path of the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) in Algeria
    in the 1990s, falling into civil war. Polarization could also result
    in a scenario similar to that in Syria. The materialization of this
    possibility would be a dire scenario for Egypt; in this case, the
    Egyptian people would pay a huge cost and regional and global peace
    and stability would be affected. Hence the Muslim Brotherhood and all
    other groups should stay away from provocations and violence, and those
    who have influence over the Muslim Brotherhood should urge nonviolence.

    Quite naturally, Turkey stands in support of the elected president
    and strongly criticizes the coup makers. However, if we are unable to
    understand Egypt, to appreciate its domestic and external dynamics;
    if we fail to read the regional situation and keep on criticizing,
    Turkey may lose Egypt -- and pay the economic and political price.

    Considering the overall situation of relations with Iran, Syria,
    Israel, Armenia and Greece, we shouldn't add Egypt to the list of
    countries with which Turkey is having problems. We need to remain
    careful.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    *Professor İdris Bal is an AK Party deputy.

    http://www.todayszaman.com/news-322288-if-we-fail-to-understand-egypt-well-lose-it-by-idris-bal-.html

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