Political analyst: Armenia's accession to Eurasian economic union on
October 10 unlikely

YEREVAN, September 2. /ARKA/. Alexander Iskandaryan, head of the
Caucasus Institute, doesn't believe that Armenia will join the
Eurasian Economic Union on October 10.

He told journalists on Tuesday that "if it takes place or when it
takes place, it will be difficult to say whether this organization is
able to function as a serious economic and political organization".

The political analyst said that the Customs Union was established with
a view to Ukraine, not Armenia, but things have changed since then,
and these changes are impacting the Customs Union's fate.

Iskandaryan is skeptical about prospects for a good operation of this
union, since he doesn't think that it will be possible to create a
properly functioning union amid the Ukrainian crisis.

"There are too many problems, including those related to Armenia," he said.

As for Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is periodically
putting forward preconditions for Armenia's accession to the Eurasian
Economic Union, Iskandaryan think these statements shouldn't be taken
separately from the whole logic of relationship of Astana and Moscow.

"Armenian community noticed this circumstance only after it started
affecting Armenia's interests," he said. "However, the Customs Union
has its own internal logic of relations - this is a space where
conflicts are breaking out constantly, and these conflicts will be
settled, just as in other unions."

On August 27, after a summit of the Customs Union countries' leaders,
the Ukrainian president and EU representatives, the Kazakhstan
president said at a briefing for Kazakhstan's media that negotiations
will be held on October 10 in Minsk, where accession of Armenia and
Kyrgyzstan to the Eurasian Economic Union will be discussed.

Iskandaryan said there is still discord between the sides on some
issues related to oil export, supply of Chinese tractors etc.

In his words, similar discord happens also in other unions, including
the European Union, where countries' stances are different on Ukraine,
for example.

"Nevertheless, Nazarbayev's statements addressed to its relations with
Moscow rather than to Armenia, and they should be considered exactly
in this context," Iskandaryan said.

On September 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin upheld the
government's proposal to sign an agreement on Armenia's accession to
the Eurasian Economic Union.

On May 29, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan signed a treaty on the
Eurasian Economic Union, which takes force on January 1, 2015.

Armenian Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan said on July 10 that the
accession agreement will be signed before the end of October. --0----

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From: Baghdasarian